Specter, Sestak in Dead Heat in Pa. Primary Race, but Sestak Has the Momentum

Rep. Joe Sestak and Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania are headed for next Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in a statistical tie, although Sestak appears to have the momentum, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 5-10.

Specter leads Sestak by 44 percent to 42 percent among likely primary voters, with 1 percent preferring someone else and 14 percent undecided. Quinnipiac had Specter ahead by 47 percent to 39 percent about a week ago and by 53 percent to 32 percent in early April.

A Muhlenberg College/Daily Call tracking poll conducted May 8-11 showed Specter and Sestak tied at 45 percent each, with 10 percent undecided. A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted May 3-9 has Sestak leading Specter 38 percent to 36 percent with about one in four voters undecided.

All three polls sampled likely voters.

The Quinnipiac poll found that 29 percent of voters overall said that they might still change their minds. Thirty-four percent of Specter supporters were in that category, compared with 25 percent of Sestak backers.

Read Jill Lawrence's pieces on the Pennsylvania race:

- Arlen Specter, New Democrat: How Do You Catch a Cloud and Pin It Down?
- It's Joe Sestak Against Specter, Obama and Biden in Pennsylvania Senate Race

The race is close even though 46 percent of voters don't know enough about Sestak to express an opinion about him, compared with 11 percent for Specter, who has served five terms in the Senate.

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown notes that Specter has a history of winning close elections. But, he added, "the intangibles are clearly on Sestak's side. He has the momentum and the anti-incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger. Troubling for Specter is that 1 in 7 likely primary voters are undecided, and incumbents -- especially 30-year incumbents who have switched parties -- rarely get much of the undecided vote."

The poll also found the following when it asked voters what they believe regardless of who they intend to vote for:

- They trust Specter more than Sestak to do what he promises in the campaign by 40 percent to 33 percent, with 10 percent saying they see no difference and 17 percent undecided.

- They are divided on which candidate most shares their values. Forty percent say Specter, 38 percent choose Sestak, 5 percent say there is no difference, and 18 percent are undecided.

- They also are split about who they believe is most consistently liberal. Thirty-five percent say Specter, 33 percent choose Sestak, 3 percent say there is no difference and 29 percent are undecided.

- A clear majority -- 54 percent -- believe Specter has the better chance to win the general election. Twenty-nine percent say Sestak does. (A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6 found the opposite: former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey led Sestak by 42 percent to 40 percent, but led Specter by 50 percent to 38 percent).

The Franklin & Marshall survey said that "Sestak holds a larger advantage as the pool of voters gets smaller -- meaning lower turnout favors his candidacy." Specter has a nine point lead if all registered Democrats, and not just likely voters, are surveyed.

"This race will be determined by Specter's ability to hold off Sestak's late surge," Franklin & Marshall said. "The challenger has improved his recognition and image among Democratic voters and the incumbent, who is far better known, has little room to grow in attracting new supporters. The key to a Specter victory will arise from his ability to cast doubts on Sestak's credentials and to create a well-organized election-day turnout machine. Sestak must continue to build on the momentum he has established as a viable alternative to the incumbent."

F & M's general election match-ups have Specter and Sestak both running evenly with former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, although with a large number of voters undecided.

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