Joe Sestak Catches Up to GOP's Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania Senate Race

Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak has not only caught up to Sen. Arlen Specter in their race for the Democratic senate nomination in Pennsylvania, he now has moved into a statistical tie with former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 4-10.

Toomey leads Sestak by just 42 percent to 40 percent with 16 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.9 points.

Sestak had come within three points of Toomey in this poll in March, but fell back to an eight-point deficit in early April. Toomey does better among Republicans for support (81 percent) than Sestak does among Democrats (71 percent) but that could change if he becomes the nominee. Toomey leads among independents, 46 percent to 30 percent, with 23 percent undecided. They run almost dead even among union households.

Specter doesn't do as well. Toomey leads him by 47 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided. Toomey leads among independents by 52 percent to 31 percent with 15 percent undecided and he beats Specter in union households by 48 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided. In early March, Specter had led Toomey by 49 percent to 42 percent before Toomey turned that around in April and took the lead, 46 percent to 41 percent.

"Although the poll of likely Democratic primary voters finds that many more think Sen. Arlen Specter is the better general election candidate, Congressman Joe Sestak actually runs a good deal better against Toomey in a trial heat," said Quinnipiac's Peter A. Brown. "The money that Sestak has been spending introducing himself to Democratic primary voters with TV ads seems to be having an effect on general election voters as well. The difference is largely among independent voters, who favor Toomey 52-31 percent over Specter, but only 46-30 percent over Sestak."

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