Gulf Oil Spill: Flow May Be 14 Times Greater Than First Thought

The government initially estimated that 5,000 barrels of oil per day are pouring into the Gulf of Mexico from the BP well that exploded April 20. That number came -- hastily -- from government scientists in Seattle, and quickly filtered through the media. Now, independent teams of analysts are using other technologies to calculate the size of the spill, and concluding that the government estimate is way off.

In an analysis for NPR, Steven Wereley of Purdue University used particle image velocimetry, a scanning technology used to determine volume and movement of fluid. Wereley analyzed a video of the spill recently released by BP, and came up with 70,000 barrels a day -- 14 times the figure used by the U.S. Coast Guard and based on an estimate from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which used aerial imagery of the oil slick as well as the underwater video, the Washington Post said.

Wereley's technology has a 20 percent margin of error, meaning somewhere between 56,000 and 84,000 barrels a day could be gushing into the gulf.

Two other scientists quoted by NPR came to a similar conclusion using accepted estimating technologies.

Ian MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University and an expert in analyzing oil slicks, told the New York Times he had made his own calculations using satellite imagery, and said the spill could "easily be four to five times" as large as the current estimates.

"The government has a responsibility to get good numbers," MacDonald said. "If it's beyond their technical capability, the whole world is ready to help them."

BP has insisted that the spill cannot be measured accurately and that it is more concerned with stopping the leak than tracking its size. But the company's claims that there is "no way" to get an accurate number are incorrect. Scientists routinely make such measurements with accuracy and have offered their services at the Deepwater Horizon well. BP told two oceanographers who had planned to do a measurement not to come because they were lowering a metal container to try to "cover" the leak. That effort failed, but they scientists were not invited afterward.