Updated Gulf Oil Flow Estimate Is Much Worse: 60,000 Barrels Daily

Just before Obama was scheduled to address the nation on the BP oil spill on Tuesday night, the scientific team charged with measuring the daily oil flow rate in the Gulf of Mexico released their latest estimate and it isn't pretty: "Between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels a day" (1.47 million and 2.5 million U.S. gallons), according to the Flow Rate Technical Group.

That's one and a half-times greater than the previous estimate of 20,000 to 40,000 barrels made less than a week ago (on June 10). It is a staggering seven-and-a-half times greater than the earliest, "worst case scenario" estimate of 8,000 barrels daily made by the Coast Guard on April 21, a day after the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded and sank.

It is also roughly equal to the total amount the Exxon Valdez spilled into Alaskan waters, if that same amount occurred every four days in the gulf, notes the San Francisco Chronicle.

However, as Energy Secretary Steven Chu remarked in the release:

The upper number is less certain – which is exactly why we have been planning for the worst case scenario at every stage and why we are continuing to focus on responding to the upper end of the estimate, plus additional contingencies.

The Flow Rate Technical Group also explained why the numbers keep changing for the worse: They reflect newly available data and the observation of the newly singular flow point, which was created by shearing off the damaged riser pipe, which had several simultaneous leaks. Even before BP successfully sliced the riser on June 3, the company warned the method could increase the oil flow, at least temporarily.

Still, the scientists say that BP's long, painful process of slicing off the pipe using a diamond-blade and dropping a lower marine riser package containment cap on top has indeed yielded some success, capturing 18,000 barrels per day since June 5.

A new containment cap set to be fitted today should increase that capacity up to 28,000 barrels. The well itself will not stop flowing until it is plugged with cement or other heavy material, which is expected to occur in August.