Are Oil Spill Estimates Going Up Because the Spill Itself Is Getting Worse?

Why do estimates of the crude gushing from BP's Gulf oil spill keep spiraling upward? Even if you believe BP is nefarious and trying to put out low numbers, that may not be the only culprit. The timely blog The Oil Drum points out (hat tip Andrew Sullivan) that it's not just calculations of the spillage that are growing -- it's the spillage itself.

It's "called erosion, and simply put, the oil and gas that are flowing out of the rock are bringing small amounts of that rock (in the form of sand) out with them," The Oil Drum writes. "Rocks that contain lots of oil are not that strong and are easily worn away by the flow of fluid through them."

Meanwhile, Gawker -- no bunch of scientific experts to be sure -- picks up on The Oil Drum's post and ensuing commentary and advances the theory that there may be no stopping the leakage:

"A comment from well-regarded energy policy website The Oil Drum has been making the rounds, outlining a scenario as terrifying as it is bleak: That the Deepwater Horizon rig's problems extend below the sea floor, where one or more leaks are currently weakening the seabed foundation in a way that could cause an inextinguishable 'wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more.'"