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Is BP Oil Spill Helping Obama on Afghanistan War?

4 years ago
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The gushing oil of the BP spill continues to darken the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, posing a profound challenge to President Barack Obama, whose efforts seem (perhaps through no fault of his own) barely connected to whatever will bring this eco-disaster to an end. But the dark swill pouring into the gulf has also drawn attention from another challenging problem for the president: Afghanistan.

Granted, the $100 billion-per-year war in Afghanistan usually attracts little media notice or political debate. It's not often on the front pages, and it's barely a blip on the cable news radar screen. I see this firsthand, too. Whenever I write a column or article about the war, it's a traffic-killer. A piece on Dick Cheney or Sarah Palin can light up the Internet; one on Afghanistan -- say, how Obama and his aides are disingenuously touting anti-corruption efforts in Afghanistan -- doesn't generate much in the way of links, buzz or tweets. (So why am I writing this column? Isn't there something else to be said about Palin's implants -- or lack thereof?)

Still, whatever press or political attention Afghanistan might be receiving now, it's obviously less due to the BP nightmare. That's good for Obama, for his Afghanistan policy has not been looking so hot lately.

On Sunday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on "Fox News Sunday" that "we are making progress" in Afghanistan. Yet the recent news from there has been alarming.
-- The peace jirga held by Afghan President Hamid Karzai did not produce much in terms of establishing concrete policies, and it ducked key issues regarding how to defuse the insurgency.

-- Earlier this year, Marja was the site of a major offensive against the Taliban. It was initially considered -- or cited -- as a success for U.S. forces. Now fighting continues in Marja, and the area has yet to be secured and stabilized.

-- Marja was supposed to be followed by a U.S./NATO assault in Kandahar, the spiritual capital of the Taliban -- and a city controlled by Karzai's half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai, who has been accused of rampant corruption. But earlier this month, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander of coalition forces, began to play down expectations for the coming Kandahar operation. Moreover, U.S. officials keep debating among themselves whether they should try to push out Ahmed Wali Karzai (aka AWK) or work with him. From the outside, the what-to-do-about-AWK tussle looks like a mess

-- President Karzai continues to be an unreliable -- and erratic -- partner. After a rocket attack on the peace jirga, he suggested in a meeting that Americans, not the Taliban, were responsible for the assault. A New York Times article quoted Amrulah Saleh, who resigned as chief of Afghanistan's intelligence service after this attack, saying that Karzai "has lost his confidence in the capability of either the [NATO] coalition or his own government to protect this country." A Western diplomat told the paper: "Karzai told me that he can't trust the Americans to fix the situation here. He believes they stole his legitimacy during the elections last year" -- when Karzai was widely viewed as having engaged in massive fraud.
If Karzai doesn't have faith in the U.S. endeavor, should American citizens? It is stunning that the Obama administration, in order to prosecute the longest war in U.S. history, has to rely (at least in part) on a figure who consistently signals he is (at best) tentative about this operation. Is this any way to run a war?

Obama's policy is based on the premise that the U.S. surge will put the Taliban on its heels and provide the United States and NATO a window in which they can beef up Afghan security forces and nudge the Karzai government toward competency and legitimacy -- two Herculean tasks that might defy the best of efforts. But Obama also promised the United States would begin to de-surge in July 2011. That's only a year from now. And it doesn't seem that in the seven months since Obama unveiled this policy, there have been tremendous advances on any of these critical fronts to make the July 2011 deadline appear practical.

Among policy wonks who follow this situation, there is a widespread acceptance that any withdrawal starting in July 2011 will be minimal. But Obama will still have to explain this, just as the 2012 campaign will be heating up. That is, he will have to confront the contradiction at the heart of his Afghanistan policy: This war is so important that the United States must sacrifice hundreds of billions of dollars and many GI lives, yet there's an arbitrary start date for withdrawal.

Every month of bad news from Afghanistan brings Obama closer to that confrontation. He's somewhat fortunate that much of the media, Congress and the country do not obsess over what's occurring there -- especially when black goo continues to invade the Gulf of Mexico.

You can follow David Corn's postings and media appearances via Twitter.
Filed Under: Deep Background, Oil Spill

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21 Comments

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andrc657

Let's end these senseless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and bring our troops home.

June 22 2010 at 9:59 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
xxo1984

Where are the little anti-war protesters (hypocrites) when you need them??

June 21 2010 at 6:35 PM Report abuse +10 rate up rate down Reply
pkatcher

I find it TOTALLY amazing that people are blaming Obama for the TWO wars started by W..both illegal both TOTALLY mis managed and screwed up.. Both wars dropped in the lap of a new President who already inherited a damaged economy. Now people are yelling OBAMA is killing the US Economy..NOPE George did it well WITH GOP help. We had a surplus the last few yrs of Clinton..GONE in one Bush yr. Oil spill? sorry NO one can stop it by being President BUT Obama is holding BP t othe fire...20 billion $ in escrow...and the GOP thinks shakedown and apologises..Cheney STILL has influence in Halliburton and ALWAYS did..Get real, Obama is doing a decent job..more todo but the party of NO is gearing up to stall the US even more

June 21 2010 at 6:34 PM Report abuse -6 rate up rate down Reply
judntx7

And isn't it swell how our military leaders are making nice with the Taliban.. as in using our Troops to Guard their poppy fields.. which are apparently more productive than ever! Maybe That is "the progress" they speak of..

This is the ninth year of this BS which is costing us dearly in blood & treasure.. so Bring them home, now.

June 21 2010 at 6:32 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
Kat2988

What do you need a disaster to deflect from the fact that he's doing so lousy on everything else, good grief.

June 21 2010 at 5:56 PM Report abuse +12 rate up rate down Reply
troses5

Roy I am sorry. There is no hysteria here. Has nothing to do with Republican. I AM IN HEALTH CARE. I know it first hand, so that's why I am trying to clue in the people who don't, and buy into Obamacare. Just like I said.....the polls speak for themselves. I'm not trying to pull one over on you.

June 21 2010 at 5:37 PM Report abuse +11 rate up rate down Reply
Kenneth

Sorry! In my opinion nothing can help Obama at this point. All the wrong the democrats and he has done can not be undone.

June 21 2010 at 5:32 PM Report abuse +11 rate up rate down Reply
bjw367

In my opinion an enormous failure of the Obama Presidency has been the continued involvement of the US in "Mesopotamia" and Afghanastan.

June 21 2010 at 5:25 PM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to bjw367's comment
xxo1984

But that is what his "handlers" want him to do.. "War" has always been Big business, you know.

June 21 2010 at 6:39 PM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
evnsaffl

Who clued in Goldman Sachs about BP? Why did Goldman Sachs dump their BP shares just before the oil spill? WHO KNEW WHAT WHEN? The oil spill is probably helping Obama in many ways -- an excuse not to drill?

June 21 2010 at 4:08 PM Report abuse +14 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to evnsaffl's comment
kingnus

Say what? Just before the spill didn't Obama endorse more off-shore drilling?

June 21 2010 at 7:29 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
troses5

So did you see the new Rasmussen poll out:

"Rasmussen says 61 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing (with 51 percent "strongly" disapproving) while 39 percent approve. Sixty-two percent back a repeal of the health care measure he signed into law (with 55 percent "strongly" in favor) while 37 percent oppose doing so."

Cold hard facts....not opinions. This oil spill is not his fault, and he won't be able to fix it. But don't mess with americans health, health care, and right to pick your own doctor or pick what kind of insurance you want. Those of you who are fighting gallantly for a lost cause in obama are commendable, but you are likely fighting a losing battle. I am so glad that others are seeing what I am seeing as shown by the polls.

June 21 2010 at 3:58 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to troses5's comment
roy

Everything you've mentioned have been republican hysteria that have created confusion about health care. If you look at the FACTS you would see how wrong you are.

June 21 2010 at 4:24 PM Report abuse -18 rate up rate down Reply

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