Tropical Storm Alex to Weaken, Then Regain Its Strength

(June 26) -- Tropical Storm Alex will weaken Saturday night and Sunday, before intensifying again early next week over the open waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Alex, which might strengthen enough to become the first hurricane of the season, is unlikely to have a direct impact on the oil spill or containment efforts.

The tropical storm approached hurricane strength by late Saturday afternoon, with a sustained wind of 65 mph, just 9 mph below hurricane levels. However, Alex's greatest threat is flash flooding associated with torrential rain as it crosses through northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula from Saturday evening through Sunday. Heavy rain has already fallen in a broad area of Central America, the Yucatan, and islands in the western Caribbean. Additional tropical downpours are expected Sunday.

Rainfall totals greater than 10 inches are possible, especially in mountainous locations.

This computer model shows the National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Tropical Storm Alex as of late Saturday afternoon:


Once the storm returns to the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon, most likely as a tropical depression, it will the re-intensify and move northwest toward the Mexican coast, away from the area in the Gulf of Mexico affected by the ongoing oil spill.

While there were some earlier indications that the storm could have tracked toward the Gulf Coast of the United States, computer models are now showing that the storm will not be pulled in that direction. The National Hurricane Center, according to its 5 p.m. CDT discussion, is confident in this forecast because most of the computer models have come into agreement that the storm will take the more southern track.

Though not likely to directly affect the oil spill, Alex will be a dangerous storm, and perhaps the first hurricane of the season. While it will most likely take the storm close to 24 hours to regain tropical storm strength, the unusually warm water and favorable upper-level atmospheric conditions will allow the storm to intensify during the first part of the week.

Alex will most likely slow its move northwest early in the week as it enters a region with a light steering flow, which will keep the storm over open water for a couple of days over before it approaches land once again. This is another reason that it seems likely that the storm will become the first hurricane of the season.

Alex's second landfall, quite possibly as Hurricane Alex, will most likely come along Mexico's coast on Wednesday.

This is a few days away, however, and just a slight change in the weak steering flow around the system could direct the system farther to the north -- toward southern Texas -- so those in the western Gulf of Mexico will need to monitor the storm in the coming days.