Alex Downgraded, But Likely to Strengthen to Hurricane in Gulf

(June 27) -- Tropical Storm Alex has weakened to a tropical depression during its trip over the Yucatan Peninsula, but the reduction in strength will be temporary. It appears as if Alex is destined to become the first Atlantic basin hurricane of the season, and while Alex will not directly affect the area of the gulf with the oil spill, it will become a formidable storm.

The interaction of land is what weakened the storm. Alex moved on Sunday into the much warmer-than-normal water of the Gulf of Mexico, where overall atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for development and Alex is expected to gain strength.



The storm system will continue on a northwestward path on Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps approaching category 2 strength (sustained wind of 96 mph). Hurricane Alex is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast sometime on Thursday.

While meteorologists at the hurricane center are confident in the overall track, a slightly farther to the north track is possible. This would bring Alex inland along the coast of southern Texas and potentially result in a stronger storm since it would have spent more time over the warm water.

Alex will not, however, track far enough to the north and east to affect the portion of the gulf dealing with the ongoing oil spill. While the distant storm might produce slightly higher ocean swell near the oil spill, it is not expected to significantly hinder clean-up operations.

The main danger of the storm as it affected Central America, the western Caribbean islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula was heavy rain more than wind and storm surge. However, since Alex will be a stronger and more organized hurricane upon making its second landfall, storm surge (and associated coastal flooding) and wind damage will be a bigger danger in addition to the potential for flooding rainfall.

Even though the storm will not be a major problem for the oil spill area, hurricane Alex will be a formidable -- and potentially dangerous -- storm for residents along the coast of Mexico to perhaps South Texas.