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Tea Party Tests, Rich Outsiders and More: Six Primary Races to Watch

1 year ago
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Jill Lawrence
Jill Lawrence
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The 2010 primary season has already delivered suspense and drama, what with Tea Party upsets in Nevada and Kentucky, minority breakthroughs in South Carolina, a World Wrestling Entertainment contender in Connecticut, and veteran senators ousted in Pennsylvania and Utah.

But the excitement isn't over yet. The docket still holds at least a half dozen fascinating races between now and mid-September, when the final intraparty contests are held. There are more Tea Party tests coming up, and three clashes pitting political figures against wealthy outsiders from the business world. Here are the top primaries to watch, in order of the calendar:
Aug. 10
1. Colorado Republican Senate Primary: A late shakeup is in progress here. Prosecutor Ken Buck has overtaken Lt. Gov. Jane Norton in what could end in another win for a Tea Party favorite over a more establishment politician. Norton is plenty conservative – she wants to eliminate the Education Department and a fundraising pitch on her website last week attacked President Obama for "retreatist tactics in fighting the War on Terror." But Colorado conservatives have been flocking to Buck.
Ken BuckThe Weld County (Greeley area) district attorney, a former aide to Dick Cheney, is working the Tea Party hard and harnessing grassroots energy. His supporters include South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a Tea Party favorite himself, and blogger-activist Erick Erickson, founder of RedState.com. He's also praised in an ad from the Campaign for Liberty, a Ron Paul group that opposes the Federal Reserve, interventionist foreign policy and most federal authority. Last week, after polls showed Buck with double-digit leads, Colorado and national Democrats who were once focused on Norton started going after Buck.
2. Colorado Democratic Senate Primary: Sen. Michael Bennet had the good luck and bad luck to be named to his seat after President Obama picked then-Sen. Ken Salazar to be Interior secretary. At the time Bennet was superintendent of the Denver school system and had never run for office. That non-traditional resume might have worked well for a candidate this year, but Bennett is now an incumbent fighting off a challenge from the left.
Fellow Democrat Andrew Romanoff has more political experience than Bennett -- he won four races for the state House and was speaker for four years. But he is winning over some activists by branding Bennett part of a broken and timid Washington establishment. Romanoff has delighted the GOP with his disclosure that the administration dangled job prospects at him to get him out of the Senate race. Democrats made a similar attempt to clear the Senate field in Pennsylvania and ended up backing the wrong horse (their pick, Democratic convert Arlen Specter, lost to Rep. Joe Sestak). Bennet, who does not have the baggage of a party switch, is a better bet to sustain his lead in polls.
Aug. 24
3. Arizona Senate Republican Primary: This is a faceoff between Sen. John McCain, his party's 2008 presidential nominee, and former congressman and radio talker J.D. Hayworth, a Tea Party pick coming at McCain from the right. To keep Hayward at bay, McCain himself has veered sharply right on a number of issues to hold conservatives, including immigration, taxes and climate change. Once he pushed hard for a comprehensive reform bill that included a path for illegal immigrants to earn citizenship, and said America would not "erect barriers and fences." Now a campaign ad shows him walking the border in Nogales as he talks tough to a sheriff. "Complete the danged fence," says McCain. McCain also has ads attacking Hayworth for his post-Congress lobbying career ("as inside Washington as it gets") and one called "J.D. Huckster" that rips Hayworth for appearing in a 2007 infomercial about how to get "free money grants" from the government (money, Hayworth says, that "you've already surrendered to the government").
Hayworth apologized last week and said he should have taken a closer look at the infomercial sponsor, a company that was ripping off consumers. McCain, a leading opponent of torture and proponent of campaign spending limits, has never had smooth relations with conservatives. His moderate stands and reversals will be fodder in two GOP Senate debates, July 16 in Phoenix and July 17 in Tucson. But for now, McCain's onslaught against Hayworth has worked -- he's had double-digit leads in every poll since spring. Four Democrats are competing for their party's nomination -- an attorney, a journalist, a university administrator, and favorite Rodney Glassman, a businessman and former Tucson City Council member.
4. Florida Democratic Senate Primary: This is one of two races that's turned Florida into a hotbed of volatility. Rep. Kendrick Meek pretty much had the field to himself, putting him on a path to the nomination and a fighting chance at the open seat. But then moderate Gov. Charlie Crist was driven out of the Republican Senate primary and rejoined the general-election race as an independent. Meek began dropping in three way polls with Crist and Marco Rubio, the expected Republican nominee. Which led to businessman Jeff Greene to jump into the Democratic primary contest with so much money and moxie that one new poll shows him in a statistical dead heat with Meek.
"Democrats can't figure out who they want to win," said Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. They are worried about Meek, who hasn't caught on with donors or voters and has some ethics baggage. They are worried about Greene, who made a fortune betting against homeowners and brags that it shows his business acumen. Also, he hasn't lived in Florida very long. And they are worried about Crist, who has shed any reluctance to be seen with Obama, is making some overtures to Democrats and isn't letting on whether he'd team up with Senate Republicans or Democrats if elected.
5. Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Attorney General Bill McCollum had the field to himself until the last few weeks, when Rick Scott parachuted into the race. The wealthy former health-care executive was ousted as head of Columbia/HCA during a fraud investigation and later financed a huge ad campaign against the Obama health reform initiative. Jewett says it was inconceivable six months ago that anyone would run to the right of McCollum, but that's what Scott is doing -- accusing McCollum, among other things, of being soft on immigration and abortion, and as a former 10-term congressman, responsible for Washington policies that led to bank bailouts.
So far Scott has spent a reported $16 million and the results to date include two polls that show him ahead of McCollum. But this could be Scott's high water mark. Outside groups have geared up to help McCollum, including the Virginia-based Alliance for America's Future run by Mary Cheney. Her group alleges in an ad that "Rick Scott profited from the largest Medicare fraud in American history." McCollum has begun to defend himself on the air as well. The winner will be in a three-way contest against Democrat Alex Sink, Florida's chief financial officer, and independent Bud Chiles, a Tallahassee businessman and son of the late former senator and governor Lawton Chiles.
Sept. 14

6. New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary: This is not a Tea Party test, since the two leading candidates each have moderate crossover qualities. It is, however, yet another instance of a rich outsider hoping to eclipse a more conventional politician. Kelly Ayotte, attorney general for five years before stepping down to run for Senate, is carrying the establishment mantle. She was appointed to her job by a Republican governor and reappointed by a Democrat. And Sen. Judd Gregg cut a radio ad for her making clear she is his preferred successor.
Ayotte's major competition is Bill Binnie, a wealthy investment consultant and race-car driver who owns a race-car team and a seaside country club. Binnie favors abortion rights and flirted with Democratic presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004. He closed the gap with Ayotte to single digits a month ago, and is due in Washington on Tuesday to raise money. Attorney Ovide Lamontagne and businessman Jim Bender are also running -- a field so crowded that "whoever gets 38 percent wins it -- maybe even 35 percent," says Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The victor faces Rep. Paul Hodes for a seat Democrats would like to pick up.
Filed Under: Senate, Democrats, Republicans, John McCain, Primaries, Governors, 2010 Elections, Tea Party
Tagged: 2010 Governors Elections, 2010 Governors Races, 2010 Senate Elections, 2010 Senate Races, Andrew Romanoff, Arizona Senate Race, Bill Binnie, Bill McCollum, Colorado Senate Race, Florida Governors Race, Florida Senate Race, J.D. Hayworth, Jane Norton, Jeff Greene, Kelly Ayotte, Ken Buck, Kendrick Meek, Michael Bennet, New Hampshire Senate Race, Rick Scott
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purplesatinpjs3

Lawrence, Democrats have their rich outsiders also.

June 30 2010 at 10:18 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
glers

This so called Tea Party is so laughable, what would they have done when Eisenhower was President and taxes on the rich were 90%!!! Eisenhower! now that was a conservative!

June 30 2010 at 2:26 PM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
dc walker

The Return of Scheme & Deem: House Democrats to “Deem” Phony “Budget” This Week So They Can Keep on Spending – Remember the "Slaughter Solution?" Last time, it was your health care. This time, it's your wallet, and your children's future. The same Democrats who months ago tried to pass a massive health care bill without an actual vote have returned with another "deem" scheme -- a ploy by which they will disingenuously “deem” a non-existent budget as having been passed – without actually writing a real budget – so they can continue borrowing and spending future generations' money on big government initiatives(boehner's website)

June 29 2010 at 3:31 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
no1topsobama

Fellow Americans, if you are satisfied in calling a sub-divison of the Republican party Tea-Party, then so be it, but let's not kid ourselves, the so called Tea-Party aint nothing but a bunch of Republicans impersonating to be desatisfied with both major political partys- it's a lie !.
I say it's a lie cuz their main organizer ( Dick Army ) is a staunch Republican.
THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDIN':
It's no coincidence their main speakers almost always is a Republican with presidential aspirations - and let's not forget, Ms Palin was an official Republican VP candidate - just who tdo they think they're fooling ?.
...and even more important, why does the Republican party find the needs to hide behind an imaginary and ficticious political third party ?.
Could it be they know that this times Americans are not operating with a short memory and it's still to fresh on our minds how # 43 screwed up the country- but couldn't have done it alone and w/o the support of those who now hide behind the skirts of the Tea-Party.

June 28 2010 at 9:19 PM Report abuse -7 rate up rate down Reply

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