Who Will Gov. Manchin Pick to Replace Sen. Byrd?

Although Gov. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is expected to appoint a Democrat to fill Sen. Robert Byrd's seat until the term ends in 2012, his specific plans remain a mystery to countless anxiety-gripped onlookers. (They are expected to be at least partially addressed in a news conference scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern today.)

Who will it be? When would he or she start? Answers to those questions are complicated by Virginia's complex Senate vacancy statute, which appears to call for a special election in this case. Yet that appears less likely than a firm appointment, given the fact that no candidates have filed paperwork in a timely fashion.

Still, Surge Desk has identified the likeliest names to emerge so far.

The Governor Himself: Manchin is a longtime state politician who has always had his eye on higher office. A former secretary of state and state senator, he ran for governor unsuccessfully in 1996 but crushed incumbent Gov. Bob Wise, also a Democrat, in 2004. Now, he may be trying to convert his popularity as a governor into a seat in the United States Senate. But he will have to be patient about it.

As Talking Points Memo explains:

Gov. Joe Manchin is said to want the seat himself, and would start out as a front-runner even in a state that has been trending more Republican. Manchin has ruled out appointing himself to the seat -- meaning that if he did want the seat, he would presumably appoint a placeholder who would not run in the next election, whenever it may be.

Manchin's statement on Byrd's passing:

Gayle and I are deeply saddened by the passing of our dear friend and great senior Sen. Robert C. Byrd.

Like all West Virginians, the news broke our hearts. Sen. Byrd was a fearless fighter for the Constitution, his beloved state and its great people.

He made a significant mark as a member of Congress in both our state's and nation's history. His accomplishments and contributions will define history for eternity.

Our hearts and prayers go out to his daughters, friends and loved ones, his committed staff and to the people of West Virginia; we have suffered a terrible loss.

Of the state Democrats that Manchin could conceivably appoint for the "placeholder" position, several names have emerged:

Nick Casey, Former State Democratic Party Chairman: That's who The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has called out, and for good reason. The former attorney is well-respected among fellow state Democrats and is a passionate advocate of such socially liberal causes as comprehensive health care reform. At the same time, he is notable for his fiscal responsibility: "During Casey's term as chair, the Democratic Party has remained fiscally sound, maintained a fully staffed headquarters, gained eight seats in the Legislature, and re-elected a full Democratic Board of Public Works."

However, his potential appointment has already been called into question since he was just recently nominated for a position as a federal judge. In fact, it was his recent nomination that lead Casey to resign as state Democratic party chairman, paving the way for the ascendancy of Manchin's former chief of staff, Larry Puccio, who was just selected over the weekend.

Larry Puccio, Current State Democratic Party Chairman, Former Chief of Staff to Gov. Manchin: The man has been the Democratic Party chairman for only a few days, and already he is being considered for a seat in the U.S. Senate? Don't look so surprised. Manchin's former campaign manager and chief of staff has been widely praised for "running government like a business," including cutting through such thorny issues as worker's compensation (privatized!) and state debts (repaid with surplus funds!). As the Times of West Virginia opined upon Puccio's resignation from the chief of staff position in late 2009:

As the Great Recession hit the state in 2008 and continues to this day, [Manchin and Puccio's] dedication to fiscal conservatism has enabled our state to avoid massive layoffs in state government, the curtailment of services and increased taxes -- problems which plaque most of the 50 states. Instead, West Virginia was one of only five states to end FY2009 with a surplus.

Even during Puccio's brief return to the private sector, it was clear his heart was still in public service. As he observed on his way out the state capitol door: "While I will not be in a paid or full-time position as chief of staff, I will continue to be available for the governor and staff on an unpaid, volunteer basis as the governor finishes his term and in his future endeavors."

Now the governor may be calling upon him again to act as a surrogate senator until Manchin himself is ready to run. However, his appointment remains somewhat dubious due to his limited national exposure and also old allegations of financial impropriety.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito: If some West Virginia Republicans have their way, the popular legislator and the first and only Republican woman in the congressional delegation would be the pick. Despite a long history of Democratic votes, West Virginia has been tilting more Republican lately. Plus, in another possible qualification, Capito is the daughter of three-term West Virginia Gov. Arch A. Moore Jr. As Hotline On Call puts it:

She is the highest-ranking GOPer in the state (All 6 statewide officials are Dems), and she's won repeatedly in the Second District, reaching from Charleston and the OH border to exurban MD and VA, even though Dems have targeted her for defeat. Byrd himself cut an ad for Capito's '08 Dem challenger, former Byrd aide Anne Barth (D). Capito won by a 57%-43% margin, better than Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) margin in the district.

Still, others doubt that Capito would bite, as she may be after the governor's seat herself. Capito's statement today addressing Byrd's death:

The United States Senate has lost an icon, and the people of West Virginia a beloved son who was woven into the very fabric of our state.

Senator Byrd's mastery of the Senate will be remembered for the ages, but those who knew him best realize his legacy will be one of love for the West Virginians he served for nearly 57 years. Whether he is remembered as the young man who played the fiddle or the elder statesman that carried a copy of the Constitution in the pocket next to his heart, Robert Byrd touched the lives of countless West Virginians. His service to West Virginia and dedication to our nation's democracy set an example to which generations can aspire.

We pray for his family and take comfort in knowing he has gone home for the last time to join his beloved Erma in the presence of God.