Waves From Hurricane Alex Could Send Fresh Oil Onto Florida Beaches

The oil spill will not affect the Hurricane/Tropical Storm since Alex formed well out to sea where it picked up moisture due to evaporation. Oil will not change that calculus, regardless of the sea surface temperatures. While the near shore Gulf sea temperatures are around 88 degrees, the heat source for strengthening winds will not be affected by the oil either way. On the other hand, if we accept the current trajectory a possible Category 2 hurricane will pass south of Brownsville, Texas and into northeast Mexico. The southeast winds on the backside of the storm, however, will drive the oil spill into the Louisiana marshlands and Floriday beaches. Experts are saying this season almost mimics that of 2005 when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and much of the Gulf states. It will be a very active hurricane season.

So far, the trajectory of TS Alex is forecasted to move into northeast Mexico south of Brownsville, Texas. However, there are at least 3 scenarios depicted by forecast ensembles which take the storm/possible hurricane on a more northerly track which could really impact the oil spill and send a Category 2 hurricane storm surge into the fragile wetlands and beaches from Louisiana to Florida.

Warmer water, around 88 degrees F in the Gulf, will enhance the heat which is the energy source for strengthening. Barring any significant wind shear there is every reason to believe Alex will be at least a Category 1 by the time it moves on land.

The biggest problems we have are that we are no better off today than we were over 2 months ago and the booms and skimmers will do nothing to stop hurricane force winds exceeding 75 mph from driving onshore.

The best scenario seems to be this: stronger winds will disperse the oil, making it thinner and more likely to evaporate. If we can get by this one and if the relief wells succeed in capping the Deepwater Horizon well, hopefully we will be better prepared for more hurricanes for the remainder of the hurricane season. All indications show this season (La Nina) will mimic that of 2005 when Hurricane Katrina wreaked so much damage on New Orleans and the Gulf states.