Hot on HuffPost:

See More Stories

Warning Signs for Obama in Bellwether Ohio

1 year ago
  0 Comments Say Something  »
Text Size
Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes, has always been in the top tier of bellwether-states-to-watch in presidential elections given that you have to go back to 1960 -- when Richard Nixon carried it in his losing race against John F. Kennedy -- for the last time it failed to support the winner.

And most of those races have been close if you subtract the blow-out elections when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater, Richard Nixon swamped George McGovern, Ronald Reagan trumped Jimmy Carter and then Walter Mondale, and George H.W. Bush dispatched Michael Dukakis.

So, although 2012 is still a ways off, it is for good reason that the latest Quinnipiac University survey of the state contains this admonition from pollster Peter Brown: "Given Ohio's key position in the Electoral College, the White House needs to keep a sharp eye on the president's numbers in the Buckeye State. They aren't awful, but they aren't good either."

Obama won the state in 2008 with 51.4 percent of the vote to John McCain's 46.8 percent, but right now, 49 percent of Ohio voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing while 45 percent approve, with 6 percent undecided. Obama was also in negative territory in Quinnipiac's three previous polls this year. Independents currently disapprove by 53 percent to 40 percent, with 7 percent undecided. In 2008, independents supported Obama by 52 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent not revealing for whom they voted, according to exit polls.

Barack ObamaOhioans are split on whether they want their next senator -- the person elected to fill the seat of the GOP's George Voinovich -- to support or oppose Obama's policies. Forty-eight percent want the next Senator to oppose Obama's agenda, 46 percent want him to support Obama, with 6 percent undecided. (That same divide is reflected in the current race where Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads former Republican Rep. Rob Portman by 42 percent to 40 percent, with 17 percent undecided). The poll's margin of error is 3 points.

Fifty-four percent disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy while 41 percent approve, with 5 percent undecided.

The one measure on which Obama comes out clearly ahead is when voters are asked to compare him to his predecessor, George W. Bush (who carried the state twice, although by narrow margins over Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004).

Forty percent say Obama has been a better president than Bush, 33 percent rate him worse and 24 percent say they were about the same. Three percent were undecided. Still, those saying Obama has been the better president is down 4 points from late April.

In a separate survey conducted June 26-27, Public Policy Polling said 54 percent disapproved of Obama's performance while 42 percent approve with 4 percent undecided. Independents disapproved by a 58 percent to 33 percent margin, with 8 percent undecided. Fifty-three percent opposed the new health care reform law he advocated while 38 percent supported it, with 9 percent undecided.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Our New Approach to Comments

In an effort to encourage the same level of civil dialogue among Politics Daily’s readers that we expect of our writers – a “civilogue,” to use the term coined by PD’s Jeffrey Weiss – we are requiring commenters to use their AOL or AIM screen names to submit a comment, and we are reading all comments before publishing them. Personal attacks (on writers, other readers, Nancy Pelosi, George W. Bush, or anyone at all) and comments that are not productive additions to the conversation will not be published, period, to make room for a discussion among those with ideas to kick around. Please read our Help and Feedback section for more info.

Add a Comment

*0 / 3000 Character Maximum Comment Moderation Enabled. Your comment will appear after it is cleared by an editor.

13 Comments

Filter by:
I love USA

it all comes down to this...no matter what the state...if you voted for or supported obamacare you will not be re-elected! Americans do not want you back! you did not listen to us....so as your leader, obama, said....that's what we have elections for....

July 03 2010 at 8:40 PM Report abuse +7 rate up rate down Reply
Johnny Boy

Should be 100% not just 54%

July 03 2010 at 2:41 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
mike

Personal responsibility, accountability, and willingness to compromise would go a long way toward improving our prospects as a nation. Extremism on both sides has created a polarizing effect that produces way to much inaction. But to give credit where credit is due, the moderates in both parties have the key to successful government in this country. Mis-statement of fact on either side only erects roadblocks to growth which we so desperately need.

July 02 2010 at 7:13 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
cpryo

If you add up the percentage of people that think Obama is equal to Bush, and those that say he is worse, it does not look good for him.

July 01 2010 at 8:49 PM Report abuse +18 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to cpryo's comment
flangegpp

Unfortunately, if you add those who think he's the same to those that think he's better, it's 64%. The big thing is his lack of support amongst Independents.

July 02 2010 at 12:51 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
stheel4

Is no just Ohio , Michigan , Wisconsin , Indiana , and possily even Illinois will be voting Conservatives into both Congress and the Senate in just over 4 months time.

July 01 2010 at 7:50 PM Report abuse +21 rate up rate down Reply
firstad

Every time the Republicans get control of one of the three governing bodies of our government, they prove the are not capable of running the country. Whether it is 1994 Contract with America which spawned four shut downs of the government to control the budget and cost taxpayers billions, the withdrawing of government oversight in the SEC, or the continuous refusal to solve Social Security, Medicare, or the deficit from two continuing wars Republicans keep showing they can't govern. give them the keys again, and the economy WILL go into depression. Whatever you think is going on in Ohio...it isn't.

July 01 2010 at 6:28 PM Report abuse -25 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to firstad's comment
flangegpp

Yeah, nevermind the prosperity the country enjoyed thanks to the contract with America. Big Government Bill was forced to become a centralist after 1994. And it's silly to blame republicans for the beaureucratic mess that bog down ALL government agencies, including SocSec, Medicare/aid. I bet it's the republicans fault that Amtrak is so poorly run.

July 02 2010 at 12:55 PM Report abuse +11 rate up rate down Reply
consurvative

Yep , we don't want to have low unemployment with a great economy that we have seen under the Republicans the last 25 years regardless of which party the President happens to be from. That would be terrible....or something.

July 02 2010 at 1:06 PM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
Jody

Yes, there are indeed warning signs in Ohio - and they will only become clearer. Ohio is indeed a bellwether and reflection of the country.

July 01 2010 at 11:39 AM Report abuse +19 rate up rate down Reply
Maggie

Come on Ohioans, are you not up to date as to what this adminstrtion is doing to OUR country? You should really watch the daily news in order to be sure you know the truth about what they are doing TO, not FOR our country. Surely you will not be dumb enough to let this administration continue destroying our principles. Your children, granchildren and maybe evey Great Grandchildren will be paying down the debt they have already made. There is no way to even suggest what the amount will be by the time we get a new administration. MAYBE in Nov. of this year we could get Pelosi, Reid, Frank and Waters out of our government, but you must help. Please don't be taken in as you were in 2008 and vote them back in. IF you do you have no one to blame except yourselves.

July 01 2010 at 12:07 AM Report abuse +37 rate up rate down Reply
clearhoads7

look these polls have wrong before remember the polls said that mccain would win easly well so much for polls and i truly beleive the actions of the republican voting not to extend unemployment because all the people will remember come november. For nearly two years the republicans have sat on there hands and have done everything they not to help the president fix the problem created by the republicans and now the remark of a nuclear bomb on ant just shows how bad the reupublican our and there ideas is to revert back to trickled down economics and undue everthing the president has done sending us right back into the abyss and this time we wont come out it at all and yes the gulf oil disaster was also made possible by the republicans opening the flood gates for off shore drilling instead a alternative fuel and we have real loser in florida one is senator lemuix who took 466 billion in oil mony and voted down the stricter saftey for oil rigs, the other is trying to run pebulican governer rick scott whose company was force to pay for the highest medicare fraud in usa paid 1.8 billion dollar fine and still made 300million for himself and this went on for 10 years and he consider it just oversight yep the republicans our even worse than they were when they were in power before and sold and outsources our entire ecconomy which resulted in 23 milion people losing there job and what they do they voted against the people out work and unemployment benifits were stop by the republicans and just show how out of touch they have become and how they could careless whats to the americans unless there rich then they take care of them, burn once okay burn twice its all you republicans who ideas of small business our just that 100 or less employees nope i will vote democrat and independent to hell with the republicans they deserved to be kick out of politics permanately because all this has been there doing and nobody else.

June 30 2010 at 11:55 PM Report abuse -37 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to clearhoads7's comment
rohlemeyer

I don't remember any polls that said McCain would win easily.

July 01 2010 at 10:51 AM Report abuse +19 rate up rate down Reply
flangegpp

No poll had Mccain winning easily, that is flat out untrue. Some polls show he had pulled ahead, barely, before the economic collapse exposed BOTH of them as being unqualified to be president. Unfortunately, the media only covered the inability of one canidate.

July 02 2010 at 12:58 PM Report abuse +9 rate up rate down Reply
Welcom2thejungle

When will any of you wake up and realize that it is both Democrats and Republicans that is destroying our country! When will you people see this?

June 30 2010 at 2:15 PM Report abuse +33 rate up rate down Reply

Follow Politics Daily

  • Comics
robert-and-donna-trussell
CHAOS THEORY
Featuring political comics by Robert and Donna TrussellMore>>
  • Woman UP Video
politics daily videos
Weekly Videos
Woman Up, Politics Daily's Online Sunday ShowMore»
politics daily videos
TV Appearances
Showcasing appearances by Politics Daily staff and contributors.More>>

News From Our Partners