Bad News for Democrats: GOP Has Big Enthusiasm Advantage in Midterms

While voters remain evenly divided on whether they will support the Democratic or Republican candidate in this year's congressional elections, Republicans go into the midterm contest with the highest level of enthusiasm for casting a ballot dating to 1994 when they recaptured the House, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted June 16-20.

Registered voters split at 45 percent each on favoring the Republicans or Democrats, but 56 percent of Republicans describe themselves as more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year. The high point for Republicans was in 1992 when 41 percent put themselves in the "enthusiastic" category while in October 1994, 34 percent described themselves that way.

By comparison, 42 percent of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year, compared with 46 percent in June 2006, the year they won control of the House.

Forty-two percent of independents are enthusiastic, which is their highest level since 1994. Fifty-five percent of the independents who describe themselves as more enthusiastic favor the Republicans while 36 percent prefer the Democrats.

The GOP enthusiasm level is fueled by disapproval of President Barack Obama, with 62 percent of those in the "enthusiastic" category disapproving of the job he is doing and the same number describing their midterm decision as a vote against him. For Republicans in general, whether they are in the enthusiastic category or not, 54 percent say their vote is aimed at showing opposition to Obama.

For the overall electorate, 28 percent describe their vote as one against Obama, 23 percent say it was one to support him and 47 percent say he isn't much of a factor.

The Republican conservative base is far more energized than the Democrat's liberal constituency. Fifty-nine percent of self-described conservative Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year, compared with 37 percent of Democratic liberals.

Sixty-two percent of voters who say they agree with the Tea Party movement say they are more enthusiastic than usual this year.

The Democrats plan to sink a big chunk of change into trying to replicate their 2008 success in turning out new voters, but if their target is younger voters, only 60 percent of those under 50 say they are absolutely certain to vote this November. Of those certain to vote, 72 percent plan to vote Republican and 53 percent will support a Democrat. Seventy-nine percent of voters over 50 say they will definitely vote, and they break fairly evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

The Republicans right now have these advantages even though the image of the party and its leaders is not strong. Fifty-five percent of voters disapprove of Republican congressional leaders while 31 percent approve, with 14 percent undecided. Voters disapprove of the Democrats by similar numbers.

The GOP leaders get so-so marks even among fellow Republicans, who approve of their performance by a modest 54 percent to 37 percent. Fifty-nine percent of registered Republicans want their leaders to follow a more conservative course while 35 percent prefer that they take a moderate direction.

Democrats also top Republicans by double-digit margins when voters are asked which party is more concerned about people like themselves, which party can bring needed change and which is more honest and ethical (the Democratic advantages on those questions range from 10 to 16 points).