Wisconsin Senate Race Looks Competitive, but Many Voters Haven't Focused
Bruce Drake
Contributing Editor
Posted:
07/16/10
Polls of the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin have been showing a surprisingly tight contest between three-term Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold and Republican newcomer Ron Johnson, and the latest survey shows a competitive race but one on which many voters have not yet focused.
Feingold is leading Johnson, who is in the plastics manufacturing business, by 33 percent to 28 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring someone else and 38 percent undecided, according to a University of Wisconsin poll conducted June 9-July 10. The margin of error is 5.7 points.
Some pollsters believe the "likely voter" measure is not as significant until closer to Election Day, but Feingold's margins are about the same among registered voters and all Wisconsites, although the percentage of undecided among those two groups soars to 50 percent or more.
The polls said only 44 percent of all Wisconsites had made up their minds.
A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted July 13, had Johnson statistically tied with Feingold, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring another candidate and 6 percent undecided. The disparity in the number of undecideds between the two polls is explained by the fact that the University of Wisconsin survey does not press a follow-up question to find out where undecideds are leaning.
In the University of Wisconsin poll, 50 percent of likely voters say they have paid only a little attention or none at all to the race and the number goes up for registered voters (63 percent) and all Wisconsinites (67 percent).
Johnson, who has the state GOP's endorsement but must yet win a September primary, is unknown by 8 in 10 likely voters, and even higher percentages among registered voters or all residents.
Feingold is seen favorably by margins of 16 to 22 points among all the classifications of those surveyed.
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Feingold is leading Johnson, who is in the plastics manufacturing business, by 33 percent to 28 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring someone else and 38 percent undecided, according to a University of Wisconsin poll conducted June 9-July 10. The margin of error is 5.7 points.
Some pollsters believe the "likely voter" measure is not as significant until closer to Election Day, but Feingold's margins are about the same among registered voters and all Wisconsites, although the percentage of undecided among those two groups soars to 50 percent or more.
The polls said only 44 percent of all Wisconsites had made up their minds.A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted July 13, had Johnson statistically tied with Feingold, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring another candidate and 6 percent undecided. The disparity in the number of undecideds between the two polls is explained by the fact that the University of Wisconsin survey does not press a follow-up question to find out where undecideds are leaning.
In the University of Wisconsin poll, 50 percent of likely voters say they have paid only a little attention or none at all to the race and the number goes up for registered voters (63 percent) and all Wisconsinites (67 percent).
Johnson, who has the state GOP's endorsement but must yet win a September primary, is unknown by 8 in 10 likely voters, and even higher percentages among registered voters or all residents.
Feingold is seen favorably by margins of 16 to 22 points among all the classifications of those surveyed.
Follow Poll Watch on Twitter