Outsider Ken Buck: Shaking Up the GOP in Colorado Senate Race

In any other year, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton of Colorado would have easily dispatched Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck in a Republican Primary. Her conservative credentials are reasonably solid (she did, after all, help de-fund Planned Parenthood in Colorado), she had connections any aspiring Republican pol would envy, and as the campaign got under way she was out-raising and out-polling her opponent.

She's still outdoing him in collecting contributions -- recent reports show her raising twice as much (though Buck has an edge in terms of cash-on-hand) -- but if recent polls are correct, Ken Buck appears poised to win the Aug. 10 Colorado primary, with early voting beginning July 19. If so, Buck would become the latest example of a grassroots conservative "David" stunning a Republican insider "Goliath." Whoever wins the primary will then face either Sen. Michael Bennet, (D-Colorado), or challenger Andrew Romanoff in the general election.

So where did Jane Norton go wrong? She made no major gaffes, and is on the wrong side of no major conservative issue. But she has made a series of miscalculations that wouldn't have been significant until 2010, the year of the Tea Party.

For example, Norton referred to Alaska's establishment Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski as her mentor. She also recently brought in the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. John Cornyn, to help raise money. After backing liberal Republicans Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist, Cornyn promised to stay out of GOP primaries. It's a promise Jane Norton may come to wish he'd kept.

But this is merely the latest example of Norton reinforcing her establishment image. Early on in her campaign, she tapped Charlie Black, a prominent Republican lobbyist and consummate political insider to advise her campaign. This was understandable -- Black is her brother-in-law -- but he brought in an old friend, Norm Cummings, to manage the campaign, and Cummings was slow to see trouble developing. In April, Norton replaced Cummings with a new manager, Josh Penry, who is also the Colorado Senate Minority Leader and widely seen as a "rising star" in the state. Penry immediately went after Buck, but it may have been too late. By then, the momentum had shifted.

Speaking at the Susan B. Anthony List breakfast in May, Sarah Palin mentioned Norton while talking about her "mama grizzlies" and "pink elephants." The fact that the Anthony List had already endorsed Norton, that Palin had mentioned her by name, and the added fact that Palin was scheduled to appear in Colorado, fueled speculation that Palin would endorse Norton. She might have, too, had it not been for the outcry from conservatives on Twitter and blogs. Palin's subsequent non-endorsement of Norton seems to have taken the air out of whatever was left in the Norton balloon.

Meanwhile, Ken Buck's big conservative gun from outside Colorado did not let him down. U.S. Senator Jim DeMint, (R-S.C.), who has endorsed outsider conservative challengers such as Pat Toomey, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul, backed Buck publicly and unequivocally.

"People, regardless of party, are ready for fresh alternatives," Erick Erickson of the conservative blog RedState -- an early Buck booster -- told me: "Jane Norton was John McCain's chair in the state, is the sister-in-law to John McCain's consultant, and is the former lieutenant governor. You can't get less fresh than that. She's also squandered her resources, spent more time bashing Buck than building herself up, and has come across as too staff driven. Say what you will about Ken Buck, but he is his own man and people like that in this political climate."

As they say, though, it ain't over til it's over. Few conservatives can tell you exactly why they support Ken Buck, except to say he's authentic -- and that he's not Norton. If Norton has a chance, it may be because Buck pulls a Sharron Angle -- or more precisely, because a Buck surrogate commits a gaffe. That nearly happened recently when, appearing at a Buck event, former Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado called President Barack Obama "the greatest threat to the United States today." Interestingly, as Buck distanced himself from Tancredo's statement, Norton employed a bit of jujitsu, taking to her website to defend Tancredo.

But ultimately, this race looks like Ken Buck's to lose. "It's hard to see a way for Norton to win the primary at this point, says Matt Hoskins, spokesman for the Senate Conservatives Fund (Sen. DeMint's PAC). "She's going backwards in the polls and has less money to spend in the last few weeks of the race."

If Buck is channeling Sharron Angle and Rand Paul, then Norton risks becoming Sue Lowden and Trey Grayson -- better-qualified (in terms of resume, anyway) and better-financed establishment Republicans who lost to outsiders this year. If that's the case, the big story will be how this contest is merely the latest example of a moderately conservative establishment Republican -- who would have won in any other political environment -- being crushed by the conservative grassroots.