Sarah Palin: Running Against History -- and the VP Curse?
Robert Schmuhl
Correspondent
Posted:
07/19/10
Sarah Palin's fan dance -- will she or won't she run for president in 2012? -- teases money from supporters and seduces the celebrity-centric media. Yet, before too long, the former governor and her devoted followers will face a sobering reality.
Should she seek the Republican nomination, she not only will confront several White House-minded candidates in her own party but also the unalterable facts of American political history. To be tactful about the subject: Voters haven't been particularly kind to losing vice-presidential nominees of either party for nearly a century.
Interestingly, since 1960 every elected incumbent vice president -- with the exception of Dick Cheney -- has won his party's presidential endorsement. Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Al Gore in 2000 all used the No. 2 office as a steppingstone to a White House run, with Bush the singular victor.
However, during that half-century, with the vice presidency much more significant than in the past, the running mates who lost had serious difficulties making their mark in subsequent political campaigns. Yes, Walter Mondale rebounded from the 1980 race, when he was Jimmy Carter's veep and re-election running mate, to take the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984, but Ronald Reagan defeated him decisively that year.
Bob Dole ran with Gerald Ford in 1976, and they lost to the Carter-Mondale ticket. Twenty years later, Dole came back as the GOP standard bearer, but was soundly defeated by Bill Clinton.
The 10 other running mates from 1960 until 2004 pretty much faded away, even though several (such as Henry Cabot Lodge in 1964, Ed Muskie in 1972, R. Sargent Shriver in 1976, Dan Quayle in 2000, Joe Lieberman in 2004 and John Edwards in 2008) attempted without success to make presidential bids on their own in subsequent years.
William E. Miller, the New York congressman who ran with Barry Goldwater in 1964, took the most realistic approach to his fleeting national prominence. He was featured in a television commercial for American Express with the theme: "Do you know me?"
Throughout the 20th century, only two losing vice-presidential candidates cast any kind of governmental or political shadow worthy of note. Today we tend to forget that Earl Warren, the popular California governor at the time, was Thomas Dewey's running mate in 1948, the year Harry Truman defied all the pollsters and predictions to win a full term as president. In 1953, Dwight Eisenhower selected him to be chief justice of the Supreme Court, where he served with historic consequence and considerable controversy until his retirement in 1969.
Of course, in 1920 then-Assistant Secretary of the Navy Franklin D. Roosevelt ran with James M. Cox, losing soundly to the Republican ticket of Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge. Twelve years later and as governor of New York, FDR won his first of four presidential elections.
Given their ideological viewpoints, whether Sarah Palin will ever start to draw parallels between herself and Franklin Roosevelt is highly doubtful. But, to be fair, they're kindred spirits in their abilities to communicate with the public through the media and in that unquantifiable personality-based trait called charisma.
Still, making any additional comparisons seems at this point like building a bridge to nowhere. Time -- and history -- will have to settle the matter.
Should she seek the Republican nomination, she not only will confront several White House-minded candidates in her own party but also the unalterable facts of American political history. To be tactful about the subject: Voters haven't been particularly kind to losing vice-presidential nominees of either party for nearly a century.
Interestingly, since 1960 every elected incumbent vice president -- with the exception of Dick Cheney -- has won his party's presidential endorsement. Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Al Gore in 2000 all used the No. 2 office as a steppingstone to a White House run, with Bush the singular victor.
However, during that half-century, with the vice presidency much more significant than in the past, the running mates who lost had serious difficulties making their mark in subsequent political campaigns. Yes, Walter Mondale rebounded from the 1980 race, when he was Jimmy Carter's veep and re-election running mate, to take the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984, but Ronald Reagan defeated him decisively that year.Bob Dole ran with Gerald Ford in 1976, and they lost to the Carter-Mondale ticket. Twenty years later, Dole came back as the GOP standard bearer, but was soundly defeated by Bill Clinton.
The 10 other running mates from 1960 until 2004 pretty much faded away, even though several (such as Henry Cabot Lodge in 1964, Ed Muskie in 1972, R. Sargent Shriver in 1976, Dan Quayle in 2000, Joe Lieberman in 2004 and John Edwards in 2008) attempted without success to make presidential bids on their own in subsequent years.
William E. Miller, the New York congressman who ran with Barry Goldwater in 1964, took the most realistic approach to his fleeting national prominence. He was featured in a television commercial for American Express with the theme: "Do you know me?"
Throughout the 20th century, only two losing vice-presidential candidates cast any kind of governmental or political shadow worthy of note. Today we tend to forget that Earl Warren, the popular California governor at the time, was Thomas Dewey's running mate in 1948, the year Harry Truman defied all the pollsters and predictions to win a full term as president. In 1953, Dwight Eisenhower selected him to be chief justice of the Supreme Court, where he served with historic consequence and considerable controversy until his retirement in 1969.
Of course, in 1920 then-Assistant Secretary of the Navy Franklin D. Roosevelt ran with James M. Cox, losing soundly to the Republican ticket of Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge. Twelve years later and as governor of New York, FDR won his first of four presidential elections.
Given their ideological viewpoints, whether Sarah Palin will ever start to draw parallels between herself and Franklin Roosevelt is highly doubtful. But, to be fair, they're kindred spirits in their abilities to communicate with the public through the media and in that unquantifiable personality-based trait called charisma.
Still, making any additional comparisons seems at this point like building a bridge to nowhere. Time -- and history -- will have to settle the matter.