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Rand Paul Holds 7-Point Lead in Kentucky Senate Race

4 years ago
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GOP Senate nominee and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul is leading his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Jack Conway, by 49 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll on the Kentucky race conducted July 20. The margin of error is 4 points.

That's about the same margin Paul had in the last Rasmussen poll conducted June 28. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 28-30 had Paul and Conway in a tie.

In the last Rasmussen poll, the number who saw Paul "very" unfavorably was 24 percent, which has now come down to 19 percent.

Paul is out-polling Conway among unaffiliated voters by about 3-to-1.

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Except that Rasmussen has known for inaccurate polls due to their bad polling methods. Rasmussen's methodology, which consists of calling only between 5 P.M. and 9 P.M. on weekdays, polling whoever answers the phone, and not calling back if no one answers, and not calling cellphones. All these factors lead to Rasmussen polling a fairly small sample of the voting population. In principle, these problems can be corrected by appropriate demographic weighting, but Rasmussen has been repeatedly criticized for having a model that is too slanted towards the Republicans. His move to Fox News did little to correct this problem. Unfortunately, as a consequence of Rasmussen's robopolling, not calling back, and surveying whoever answers the phone (possibly a teenager), his polls are cheap and represent a large fraction of the total polling, which may bias the results. It is our fervent hope that other robopollsters, who are dealing with these problems (e.g., SurveyUSA is starting to call cellphones), increase their frequency after Labor Day.

July 22 2010 at 9:19 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply

The only reason Rand Paul leads is because he's basically gone into the Tea Party protection program. They've realized the more he opens his mouth, the more of a whack job he shows himself as So he drops out of site. Trust me. He'll appear on shows that will lob him softballs or just disappear until near the end. Hopefully he will have to actually DEBATE his opponent. It is truly frightening how dimwitted people are in this country that an organization whose sole aim is not to pay taxes but still wants all the handouts they can get -- on the premise that in their working years they earned it -- while at the same time systematically trying to block others behind them from getting anything.

July 21 2010 at 10:15 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

For no apparent reason, my comments are censored and hopefully it will stop
Rand Paul leads in Kentucky, but it is my opinion that attorney general
Jack Conway would best represent Kentucky and he will have my vote.

July 21 2010 at 7:34 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Rand Paul is the only choice for thinking voters of Kentucky! Throw the rescals out. Rand Paul will be a breathe of fresh air in Washington D.C.

July 21 2010 at 5:52 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

Looks like the Media Propaganda didnt work out so well

July 21 2010 at 4:54 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

is everyone nuts? Rand Paul would rol lthe US back to the confederacy..roll back civil rights and worse....his ideas for the country might sound good BUT think about the effect of his ideas....better get to know this man REA Lwel lbefore you send him off to washington ...

July 21 2010 at 1:15 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

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