Palin May Have Cost Kelly Ayotte Votes, But GOP Still Favored in N.H. Senate Race

Nearly half of New Hampshire voters consider themselves moderates according to the way Public Policy Polling weights its surveys, and that may be one key reason why Republican Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte has lost ground to Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes after Ayotte got the endorsement of Sarah Palin last week.

In an April PPP poll, Ayotte, who stepped down as Attorney General to run for the seat being left open by retiring GOP Sen. Judd Gregg, had led Hodes by 47 percent to 40 percent, with 13 percent undecided. In its latest poll, conducted July 23-25, Ayotte's lead over Hodes is down to 45 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.26 points.

Given Hodes' low favorability ratings, PPP believes the Republicans are still the favorite to keep Gregg's seat. "Things may change for Paul Hodes once New Hampshire enters the general election," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "But for now it seems like the Republicans have done a good job of using the primary to their advantage."

PPP said, "Numbers we'll release (Wednesday) on the Republican primary show that the Palin endorsement has certainly helped Ayotte on that front. But although Ayotte certainly still has to be viewed as the favorite for the general election, this race is starting to look a little more interesting than it did a month ago."

Asked how their choice would be affected by a Palin endorsement, 51 percent said Palin's backing would make it less likely to vote they would vote for that candidate, 26 percent said it would make them more likely to do so while 24 percent said it would make no difference. Moderates (47 percent of the sample) said by a 65 percent to 14 percent margin that a Palin endorsement would make it less likely they'd vote for her candidate.

In the wake of Palin's endorsement, Hodes has increased his lead over Ayotte among moderates to a margin of 51 percent to 31 percent, with 19 percent undecided. In April, he led her among moderates by a more modest 47 percent to 39 percent margin, with 13 percent undecided.

That Palin may be the cause of the shift appears to be supported by the fact that while the gap between Ayotte and Hodes has narrowed, it is more because she has lost support than it is because he has increased his own.

In addition, Hodes' favorability numbers have not changed much from April, while Ayotte's have gone down. Hodes was seen unfavorably by 39 percent in April and favorably by 32 percent with 28 percent not sure. In the new poll, he is seen unfavorably by 40 percent and favorably by 35 percent, with the balance unsure. Ayotte was seen favorably in April by a 34 percent to 24 percent margin, with 41 percent undecided, and in the new poll, she now is seen unfavorably by 39 percent and favorably by 36 percent, with 26 percent undecided.

As far as match-ups with the other Republicans vying for the GOP nomination, businessman Bill Binnie leads Hodes by 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided, the same margin by which he led him in April. Hodes has small leads over two candidates considered unlikely to get the nomination, lawyer Ovide Lamontagne and businessman Jim Bender.

The Republican primary is on Sept. 14.

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