Colorado's Tuesday Primary: Governor and Senate Races Are All Close

Businessman Dan Maes has picked up a remarkable 34 points since May in his race against former Rep. Scott McInnis for the GOP gubernatorial nod in Colorado and is now in a statistical tie with the onetime frontrunner, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 7-8. Both the Republican and Democratic senate contests are going down to the wire in Tuesday's primary election.

McInnis, who has been accused of plagiarism for a series of public policy papers he did, has a bare 41 percent to 40 percent lead over Maes with 19 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A Denver Post/9 News poll conducted July 27-29 had Maes leading by 43 percent to 39 percent.

In PPP's May poll, McInnis had led a five candidate field with 50 percent, while Maes was polling only 15 percent. PPP says McInnis' favorability rating has dropped from a positive 54 percent to 15 percent margin (with the balance not sure) to an unfavorable-to-favorable ratio of 40 percent to 36 percent.

Whichever Republican wins the primary faces the unhappy prospect of a three-way race now that former Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo, saying neither McInnis nor Maes could win, has decided to run as a third party candidate. The Denver Post poll said that Tancredo takes about a quarter of the vote no matter which GOP candidate is running, and the result is a healthy lead in general election match-ups for Democrat John Hickenlooper.

In the Republican Senate primary, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is statistically-tied with Tea Party movement and conservative activist favorite Ken Buck, leading him 45 percent to 43 percent with 12 percent undecided.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Michael Bennet has a bit more breathing room leading challenger Andrew Romanoff, the former speaker of the state House, by 49 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. That margin of error is 4.6 points.

"There have been a lot of developments and scandals in Colorado that have rapidly changed the shape of all three races, and turnout is going to be key for whoever ends up on top Tuesday night," said PPP's Dean Debnam.

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