Bill McCollum vs. Rick Scott: Polls Conflict on Who's Ahead in Fla. Governor's Race

The volatility of the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Florida was underlined by a new poll that shows former health care executive Rick Scott running ahead of state Attorney General Bill McCollum by 10 points -- a survey in sharp contrast to another poll this week that had McCollum rebounding.

Scott leads McCollum 42 percent to 32 percent with 3 percent favoring another candidate an 23 percent undecided, according to an Ipsos Public Affairs poll conducted Aug. 6-10 for the St. Petersburg Times and other Florida news organizations. The poll was of registered Republicans and the margin of error was 5.9 points.

A Mason Dixon Research poll conducted Aug. 9-11 and published earlier this week by the Tampa Tribune had McCollum edging back into the lead after weeks of having fallen behind Scott, who has flooded the state with his television and radio ads. McCollum lead in that poll by 34 percent to 30 percent with 33 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 percent.

The difference in the Mason-Dixon poll is that it was of likely voters. Polling analyst Nate Silver has written that "the general consensus is that likely voter polls are better when you're close to an election (the Florida primary is Aug. 24) but perhaps not any better when you're months away from one and few people are tuned into politics."

The Times said that, taken together, "the two polls suggest Scott is more popular with voters generally but McCollum has an edge among people who are more likely to vote."

When it comes to the general election, the Ipsos poll has it as a toss-up for now, with many voters still undecided.

Scott leads Democrat Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, 30 percent to 29 percent with 14 percent for Lawton "Bud" Chiles, the son of the late former Democratic governor and senator Lawton Chiles. Twenty-six percent are undecided.

Sink leads McCollum 30 percent to 26 percent with 12 percent for Chiles and 29 percent undecided. The margin of error for the general election match-ups is 4 points.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, Sink led McCollum by 37 percent to 35 percent and Scott by 40 percent to 27 percent.

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