Pat Toomey Leads Joe Sestak in Pa. Senate Race, Helped by Greater GOP Enthusiasm

Republican Pat Toomey is running ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak in the race to fill the seat of Pennsylvanian Sen. Arlen Specter by 40 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, with 26 percent undecided, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 16-23. The margin of error is 5.4 points.

When the poll is expanded to all registered voters, Toomey's lead is a lesser 31 percent to 28 percent with 38 percent undecided. The margin of error for that sample is 4.4 points.

We frequently lean on polling analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com to help readers compare these two kinds of results. Nate has written that the general consensus among pollsters is that "likely voter polls are better when you're close to an election but perhaps not any better when you're months away from one and few people are tuned into politics."
In this case, the high number of undecideds at this point suggest that people are not yet as tuned in as they will be in a month or so. Equal numbers of voters -- 36 percent and 35 percent respectively -- say they don't know enough about Toomey and Sestak to offer a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

F & M, though, makes the following observation that underlines the significance of the "likely voter" result: "Democrats are at a decided disadvantage when it comes to voter motivation. Only 37 percent of Democrats fall into the most likely to vote category compared to 45 percent of Republicans ... Another example of the gap in partisan enthusiasm: only one third (35 percent) of those who voted for Obama in 2008 are in the most likely to vote category versus half (50 percent) of McCain voters."

Fifty-six percent of Toomey supporters say their choice of him is mainly a vote against President Obama and Democrats in Congress. Fifty-seven percent of Sestak backers say their choice is mainly a vote in support of Obama and congressional Democrats.

The F & M poll also found that 66 percent of those who voted for John McCain in 2008 plan to vote for Toomey but only 49 percent who voted for President Obama plan to vote for Sestak.

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