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Democrats Look to Lose 6 to 7 Senate Seats, One Forecast Predicts

1 year ago
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Democrats have over a 50 percent probability of losing in seven Senate races in this year's midterm elections, cutting deeply into their current 59-member majority, according to the latest forecast by polling analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. (Two of the members counted in that current majority are independents Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont).

However, Silver forecasts only a 20 percent chance that Democrats will lose 10 or more seats, which would cost them control of the Senate.

Silver's modeling shows a new Senate made up of 52.4 Democrats and 47.1 Republicans, plus the independents. Since four-tenths of a senator can't actually be elected, a look at Silver's ratings of this year's 37 races shows seven seats, all Democratic, with a 59 percent or better probability that they will be lost.

The decision by three-term Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota not to seek re-election makes it a 100 percent probability the Democrats will lose the seat in that conservative state, and Silver also says it's a 100 percent sure bet that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln will lose her bid for re-election to Republican Rep. John Boozman. A mid-August Rasmussen Reports poll had Boozman ahead by 65 percent to 27 percent.

Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats is a 97 percent favorite to take the Indiana seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. A July Rasmussen poll had Coats ahead of Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth by 51 percent to 30 percent.

The decision by Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joseph Biden, not to seek his father's seat makes it a 91 percent probability that Republican Rep. Mike Castle will win. Castle had a 12 point lead over his Democratic opponent in an early August Rasmussen poll.

In Pennsylvania, Silver gives an 88 percent chance that Pat Toomey, the former Republican congressman and onetime head of the conservative Club for Growth, will beat Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak for the seat of Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter. A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 16-23 had Toomey ahead by 40 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, although that margin is smaller among all registered voters.

There's a 77 percent chance the Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet will lose to newly-minted Republican nominee Ken Buck, who rode a Tea Party tide to the GOP nomination. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 20-22 had Buck ahead 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters.

And perhaps in the contest most in the public eye -- that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid against Republican Sharron Angle, another candidate boosted by the Tea Party movement -- Silver says that Democrats have a 59 percent chance of losing the seat. Recent polls in that race show the contest to be close.

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enrickue

If the senate seat was lost in Massachussetes, a heavy democratic state, where the democrat candidate was a supposed lock to win, how can any democrat feel even somewhat comfortable in this up coming election? And to think this pollster thinks he knows what AMERICANS are thinking? Just mention Healthcare, bailouts, immigration "reform", presidential vacations, and Cap & Spend, and there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to vote democrat. Any AND all of these issues are very unpopular to the WORKING class CITIZEN.

September 02 2010 at 7:31 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to enrickue's comment
shelbylifemaster

OLDER AND WISER TOO Amen! I totally agree and couldn't have expressed it better!

September 11 2010 at 12:19 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
The Real Howard S

I'm trying to think of a few rays of hope for the Democrats this year. Well, (1) Bennet in Colorado could hold his seat if controversial loose cannon Tom Tancredo (a third-party candidate for governor, I believe) decides to cozy up to his opponent. (2) Sharron Angle in Nevada is capable of self-destruction. (3)Democrats in Pennsylvania historically outperform their poll numbers, giving Joe Sestak a good chance to hold this seat. (4) Murkowski's primary defeat in Alaska increases the Democrats' chances of gaining this seat from 0% to about 2%. (5) David Vitter is one gaffe away from a close race in Louisiana. (6) Democrats have measurable chances of picking up GOP seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio, although none are likely (NH is probably the most likely). And perhaps the best chance of a Democrat gain is if (7) Mario Rubio (R) conducts such a vicious campaign against Charlie Crist (I) (as Meek (D) drops meekly into the background) that the victorious Crist will decide to join the Democratic caucus. But the Democrats have to remember that their seats in California, Connecticut, Illinois, Washington and West Virginia (none mentioned in this article) are hardly secure.

September 02 2010 at 12:00 PM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
Jimmy

all you libs just keep on trucking,the edge of the cliff is closer than you think!!!!

August 29 2010 at 9:04 AM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
boowah

The Democrats will lose both houses this fall! Why? Because Open Enrollment for medical insurance starts in October and when people really see what Obamacare does to their premiums, a Democrat couldn't make dog catcher. Take it to the bank!

August 28 2010 at 9:04 PM Report abuse +26 rate up rate down Reply
Chip Crawford

Nate Silver nailed the 2008 election with 99% accuracy. He mis-calculated one House race last election, that's it. He's probably right on par with this one too.

August 28 2010 at 8:28 PM Report abuse +7 rate up rate down Reply
eteeuwe

Nice Spin piece but we plan to do a WHOLE lot better. The Democrats have absolutely nothing to be enthuastic about. RECOVERY SUMMER!!! (LOL) On the other hand, Republicans exceptionally high Primary voting numbers in an off-Presidential year reveal that they can't WAIT for November 2nd.!!!

August 28 2010 at 8:20 PM Report abuse +32 rate up rate down Reply
desired001

I think Linda McMahon will take the seat in Connecticut. She is running against Dick "I remember when I returned from Vietnam" Blumenthal. By the way, he never served in Vietnam. Linda is successful at running a business while Dicky Blumenthal is successful at running businesses out of the state of Connecticut.

August 28 2010 at 8:13 PM Report abuse +28 rate up rate down Reply
flyingfortresb17

It is better that no one party generally "OWNS" the senate. this may give the democrats pause but it is time that both parties look at the economic and immigration problems that face us today. granted the house is the one that supplies the money but they are also facing a big problem of retaining their seats. Pelosi may keep her post but with few members and a lower majority to do any of her crazy bidding. If we had a good thirfd party with good candidates maybe I would find someone to really vote for and not against.

August 28 2010 at 7:50 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

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