Democrats Look to Lose 6 to 7 Senate Seats, One Forecast Predicts
Posted:
08/28/10
Democrats have over a 50 percent probability of losing in seven Senate races in this year's midterm elections, cutting deeply into their current 59-member majority, according to the latest forecast by polling analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. (Two of the members counted in that current majority are independents Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont).
However, Silver forecasts only a 20 percent chance that Democrats will lose 10 or more seats, which would cost them control of the Senate.
Silver's modeling shows a new Senate made up of 52.4 Democrats and 47.1 Republicans, plus the independents. Since four-tenths of a senator can't actually be elected, a look at Silver's ratings of this year's 37 races shows seven seats, all Democratic, with a 59 percent or better probability that they will be lost.
The decision by three-term Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota not to seek re-election makes it a 100 percent probability the Democrats will lose the seat in that conservative state, and Silver also says it's a 100 percent sure bet that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln will lose her bid for re-election to Republican Rep. John Boozman. A mid-August Rasmussen Reports poll had Boozman ahead by 65 percent to 27 percent.
Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats is a 97 percent favorite to take the Indiana seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. A July Rasmussen poll had Coats ahead of Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth by 51 percent to 30 percent.
The decision by Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joseph Biden, not to seek his father's seat makes it a 91 percent probability that Republican Rep. Mike Castle will win. Castle had a 12 point lead over his Democratic opponent in an early August Rasmussen poll.
In Pennsylvania, Silver gives an 88 percent chance that Pat Toomey, the former Republican congressman and onetime head of the conservative Club for Growth, will beat Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak for the seat of Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter. A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 16-23 had Toomey ahead by 40 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, although that margin is smaller among all registered voters.
There's a 77 percent chance the Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet will lose to newly-minted Republican nominee Ken Buck, who rode a Tea Party tide to the GOP nomination. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 20-22 had Buck ahead 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters.
And perhaps in the contest most in the public eye -- that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid against Republican Sharron Angle, another candidate boosted by the Tea Party movement -- Silver says that Democrats have a 59 percent chance of losing the seat. Recent polls in that race show the contest to be close.
However, Silver forecasts only a 20 percent chance that Democrats will lose 10 or more seats, which would cost them control of the Senate.
Silver's modeling shows a new Senate made up of 52.4 Democrats and 47.1 Republicans, plus the independents. Since four-tenths of a senator can't actually be elected, a look at Silver's ratings of this year's 37 races shows seven seats, all Democratic, with a 59 percent or better probability that they will be lost.
The decision by three-term Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota not to seek re-election makes it a 100 percent probability the Democrats will lose the seat in that conservative state, and Silver also says it's a 100 percent sure bet that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln will lose her bid for re-election to Republican Rep. John Boozman. A mid-August Rasmussen Reports poll had Boozman ahead by 65 percent to 27 percent.
Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats is a 97 percent favorite to take the Indiana seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. A July Rasmussen poll had Coats ahead of Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth by 51 percent to 30 percent.
The decision by Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joseph Biden, not to seek his father's seat makes it a 91 percent probability that Republican Rep. Mike Castle will win. Castle had a 12 point lead over his Democratic opponent in an early August Rasmussen poll.
In Pennsylvania, Silver gives an 88 percent chance that Pat Toomey, the former Republican congressman and onetime head of the conservative Club for Growth, will beat Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak for the seat of Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter. A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 16-23 had Toomey ahead by 40 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, although that margin is smaller among all registered voters.
There's a 77 percent chance the Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet will lose to newly-minted Republican nominee Ken Buck, who rode a Tea Party tide to the GOP nomination. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 20-22 had Buck ahead 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters.
And perhaps in the contest most in the public eye -- that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid against Republican Sharron Angle, another candidate boosted by the Tea Party movement -- Silver says that Democrats have a 59 percent chance of losing the seat. Recent polls in that race show the contest to be close.