Voters Sour on Health Care Reform, but Impact on Midterms May Be Slight

As the midterm elections approach, voters' views of the health care reform measure that passed earlier this year have soured, but only about a quarter of them say they will look at a congressman's vote for reform as a reason to vote against him or her, according to a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll conducted Aug. 16-22.

Forty-five percent now have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of the law, with 12 percent undecided, compared to July's results, in which 50 percent expressed a favorable view compared to 35 percent who saw it unfavorably, with 14 percent undecided. Looking just at the voters whose feelings were the strongest, 19 percent see the law "very" favorably compared to 32 percent who see it "very" unfavorably.

Sixty-nine percent of those who view it unfavorably favor repealing it as soon as possible, while 28 percent say it should be given a chance to work with Congress making necessary adjustments along the way.

The Kaiser poll reflects sentiment that Rasmussen Reports has found in its surveys of individual states -- where, with the exception of only a handful, voters favor repeal and oppose the requirement in the law that all Americans must obtain insurance. The Rasmussen polls also found the strongest feelings on the issue to be among those who dislike the measure.

The three biggest reasons for opposition cited by 75 percent or more of those surveyed are that the country can't afford to pay for reform right now, that the measure gave government too big a role and that the law was produced by too much behind-closed-doors dealmaking. Forty-six percent had an unfavorable view because they felt the measure didn't go far enough in expanding coverage or controlling costs.

The rise in the overall negative view of the measure comes despite the fact that the poll found majorities or pluralities expecting the law to be somewhat or very successful in achieving four of five objectives: reducing the amount of money average Americans must pay for health care and insurance; expanding health care to the uninsured; improving the quality of health care; and better regulating health insurers. However, by a 50 percent to 46 percent margin, voters said they didn't believe that reform would reduce the total amount the country spends on health care.

Health care ranks second -- although it's a distant second -- to the economy in terms of its importance as an issue in this year's elections. Forty-nine percent cite the economy as the top issue, 27 percent name health care and 11 percent say immigration.

Thirty-five percent say that a congressman's vote in favor of the health care measure will make no difference in their choice of whom to support in November, 30 percent say such a vote would make it much more or somewhat likely they'd vote for that lawmaker while 24 percent said they would oppose someone who voted for the legislation.

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