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Is Iran the Winner of the War in Iraq?

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As Barack Obama appeared on television Tuesday to declare the end of the U.S. combat role in Iraq, were viewers happiest in Baghdad, Washington, D.C., or Tehran?
The obvious answer would seem to be Washington or Baghdad. In fact, some analysts believe the real winner of the war in Iraq is neither the Iraqis, nor Americans, but the Iranians. It's a sobering analysis, especially in light of the United Nations-imposed and U.S.-backed sanctions against Iran, intended to to influence the country's intractable position on its nuclear capability.
Mohammad Bazzi, adjunct senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote Monday at the GlobalPost.com: "In February 2003, as he marshaled the United States for war, President George W. Bush declared: 'A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for other nations in the region.' Now, as the U.S. military concludes its combat role . . . Iraq is indeed a dramatic example for the Middle East, but not in the ways that Bush and his administration envisioned. Iraq did not become a beacon of democracy, nor did it create a domino effect that toppled other dictatorial regimes in the Arab world. Instead, the Iraq war has unleashed a new wave of sectarian hatred and upset the Persian Gulf's strategic balance, helping Iran consolidate its role as the dominant regional power."

Reached by phone in Beirut, Bazzi elaborated in an interview with Politics Daily. The bottom line, Bazzi explained, was that "Iran has basically leap-frogged the U.S. in the level of influence that it can exert on most Iraqi factions."
The spring's election and its aftermath, Bazzi said, underscored how effective Iranian influence has been, especially with maneuvering between Iraq's Shiite factions. "I'd argue that Iran started filling the political void that the U.S. has left in Iraq years ago, and now it becomes even easier with fewer U.S. troops," he said, noting that the 50,000 U.S. troops that will remain on the ground concern the Iranians. "On a political level, Iranians have played politics in Iraq much more effectively than the U.S. Part of that is that all the Iraqi factions recognized that Iran is not going anywhere, but the U.S. was going to leave, but the Iraqis are stuck with their neighbors." The Iranians, he said, are "getting a little concerned about the political stalemate in Iraq."
Iranians, Bazzi said, are "keen on playing this role of the political broker." To that end, they called almost the entire Iraqi leadership to Tehran right after elections. "The Iranians view their strategic interest in Iraq on several levels. Immediate, of maintaining a friendly government in Baghdad, because they don't want to go back to the days of Saddam where there was an extremely adversarial threat next door. The Iranians will want a friendly, Shiite-led government in Baghdad, and they see that as the new reality."
A weak Iraq is also in Iran's interest, Bazzi explained. "If Iraq is not as dominate as it once was, if it is friendly and compliant, then it enables Iran to maintain regional dominance in the Persian Gulf." Finally, he said, Iraq has become a "bargaining chip and a proxy in their conflict with the United States."

Read Our Other Iraq coverage:

- Republican Reaction to Obama's Iraq Speech: Mostly Negative
- Biden Gives George W. Bush Some Credit for Iraq Surge Success
- Obama in Oval Office Address: Iraq War Combat Mission Is Over
- Transcript of President Obama's Speech on Iraq
- Iraq Scorecard: The War So Far
- No Brass Bands When Troops Return Home From Iraq
- Jill Lawrence: What I Want to Hear From President Obama on Iraq -- Never Again

It's in Iran's best interest that U.S. political influence diminish in Iraq, said Bazzi. Ironically, a door has opened, partly as a result of the Obama administration's minimal attempts to try and influence Iraqi decision making. That "hands-off approach has backfired a little bit -- the Iranians are perfectly willing to get down and dirty and get heavily involved."
Bazzi noted there there are many entry points into Iraqi society. An oppressive heat wave in June brought temperatures reaching up to 50 degrees Celsius in Iraq. The combination of blackouts, electricity failures, and general lack of electricity provoked riots; not only was there no air conditioning, it was hard to watch the World Cup.
"Seven years after the U.S. invasion, there is still no reliable electrical grid. It's true that electrical output is higher than in the time of Saddam, and Saddam had a policy of diverting output to Baghdad and to Sunni cities and leaving other parts of country in dark. But that failure to provide electricity and drinking water and basic services are good examples of the frustration Iraqis feel at their own government and frustration they feel at the U.S. that really dampened any sense of joy . . .They don't see basic, everyday life issues getting resolved."
And that frustration opens the door further to outside influence, including from Tehran.

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93 Comments

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ritalia06

Sooner or later, the shia amd sunni must settle this problem called,Iraq, by themselves.Hopefully, the west stays out of it regardless of the request from the arab world to help.Let them fight for their own freedom, like we did in the rest of the free world!

September 03 2010 at 10:36 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
djh6721

The Path to Hell is Paved With Good Intentions. 5k Americans dead 2-3 Trillion dollars of borrowed money flushed down the toilet or stolen. 100k Iraqis now have a score to settle. Iran is now the major power in the region. After the Presidents speech the GOP cried as usual that they did not get enough credit. Well allow me to thank them for the biggest con, scam and useless slaughter the country has inflicted and had to endure since Vietnam. Kudos Bush, no one does it like you and your cronies. Bully for you.

September 02 2010 at 2:23 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
attl

What we did in name of democracy and liberty was an emotional and not rational approach to the problems of Iraq. War is destructive and we did not really plan on how we can rebuild the disrupted lives afterward. Iraq is like Yugoslavia glued together by the iron grip of a dictator. When the glue disappeared, the pieces began to fall. It should be in our collective memory. We have now several small Balkan states and their long term fate is still not determined. And yet, we hopped on another time bomb in Iraq. How long did the Greeks, Romans, Crusaders, Mongols, Turkomen or any other pacifiers or conquerors last? Not long enough. If we are looking to plant seeds of democracy, we need to amend the soil first. And we did not. Islam may be a religion of peace, but for an outsider like me, it has been an fratricidal caldron for a long time and it is still boiling? Who really benefited from this Iraq war? No one. Victory? There are none until the locals learn how to settle differences in a peaceful manner. Should we spill more of our blood? At least in the short term, it should be an unanimous 'No'.

September 02 2010 at 1:18 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
afzalamalik

i think this reflects the same notion that iraq had weapons of mass destruction and were never found

September 02 2010 at 12:25 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
knezrad

To people who feel that Iran is the winner, yes, objectively it is in having gotten rid of both the Saddamite Baathist and the Taliban regimes on its borders. So what? If the neighboring countries become freer that is also bad news for the Mullahs' theocracy. Getting rid of bad guys is not a zero sum game. And I am sick and tired of people making absurd statements about "all the terrorists being Saudis" in 9/11. They were/are not friendly to the regime running Saudi Arabia. It is like saying the Symbionese Liberation Army thugs or Michael McVey or John Wilkes Booth were representative of Americans. Put it this way, if we capture Osama bin Laden, we will likely have to try him and depending on where he is taken, probably at most give him a life sentence. If the Saudis get him, he loses his head.

September 02 2010 at 12:18 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
ritrdoc

Iran influence in Iraq? You think? We're leaving, and leaving behind a power vacuum, and little stability. You doubt the Iranians haven't been supporting some factions before all this? The internal strife in both nations goes back years. It is between factions of Islam, Shites, Kurds, Sunnies, all how thewy want their nation run, how each views their interpretation and legitimacy of the Koran to influence every element of life. This area has been in conflict for years, the situation increased wiht the forming of Isreal. at least the Muslim nations had some new and common thing to hate. It won't end. As with Christians, Muslims can't agree on the content of their holy book. The difference, is most western nations understood the need to separate church and state. Understood the power religion can play in politics. Understood that certain rituals such as stoning, sacrifincg animals, treating women as second class citizens were not necessary and removal did nothing to the core beliefs. We see Mosques everwhere in this country where Muslims have settled. Why come here unless it was to escape repressionmin any form be it the opportunity to rise above based upon ability, the cultural freedoms not offered elsewhere, the right to practice your religion the way you interpret it. The problemsin the MIddle East won't end, the world will not sit back and watchone group commit genocide on another and that short of total conversion and that all the extremist will accept. Worse if the extremist get control. Nomatter what you think of Isreal, Islamic extremist have never silenced orchanged their desire to remove that state. So we'llsit back,hope the war remains "conventional" just some jets and tanks. Let's hope Iran decides having a nuclear bomb isn't necessary. After all the U.S. is leaving, and leaving no real government or authoirty behind. But Obama needed to keep one campaign promise, needs that to justify boht his Nobel Prize and helphis party win in November. That will add well to the blame Bush mantra that has worked so well. It's not that Bush wasn't at fault, it would be nice if who replaced him had some workable plan.

September 02 2010 at 11:23 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Chris

Iraq has no government while Americans will continues to pay for the most unconstitutional war in U.S. history. Meanwhile our jobs and whole sectors of industries have been outsourced and our global government has turned against the people. Truck loads of foreign goods arrive daily while Americans sit unemployed. Americans need to wake up, close the borders and demand that all goods and services are manufactured in the U.S. Eliminate our dependency on foreign oil. Alaska can drill. America must put Americans back to work.

September 02 2010 at 11:19 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
nflamingo

Perhaps if people from Arab nations would stay and fight for the rights they want, we would not have to get involved. They come here as well as other nations. They put pressure on our government to go and help. Well we are at a stage the America needs to concentrate on America and the American People.

September 02 2010 at 11:17 AM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
fsaufleyudt

Whoever the winner is, one thing is certain and that's the USA IS NOT the winner. Another waste of lives and taxpayer dollars. Korea, Viet Nam, Iraq and now Afghanistan.

September 02 2010 at 11:13 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
czmars

i know many out there question our prez. on iraq, on iran, on in leadership and what not. iraq is for the iraquis now. iran is for iranians and always will remain as such. ;et the future unfold its benign signs. the victors are the american people because they endure and sacrificed so much in the last eight years of this war. blood, sweat and tears will never be forgotten for a blunder and an error of judgement and maturity by previous prez.bush and all his cohorts. a new start for all is a welcoming sign for things to come. our country is stronger now and will remain so because of prez. obama leadership. thank you.

September 02 2010 at 11:05 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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