Good Poll Numbers for the GOP May Be As Much Anti-Democrat As Pro-Republican
Bruce Drake
Contributing Editor
Posted:
09/3/10
The big lead that Republicans notched in a Gallup survey this week on a "generic" congressional ballot may be due as much to voters' rejection of the Democrats as their embrace of Republicans, the pollster said.
While 48 percent of those surveyed said the reason for their choice was "more a vote for the Republican candidate," 44 percent said it was more a vote against the Democrat. Five percent answered "both equally" and 2 percent were undecided.
The Gallup survey this week that made news by finding a 51-percent-to-41-percent Republican advantage was based on its tracking poll conducted Aug. 23-29. The numbers in this new poll are based on a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Aug. 27-30, in which the Republicans' generic ballot advantage was 49 percent to 43 percent.
The margin of error for the number of voters who said their vote for the Republican would be an affirmative show of support was 5 points. The margin of error for those who said their vote for the Democrat would be an affirmative vote for the Democrat was 6 points.
Gallup said that the 44 percent of Republican voters who say they are voting more against the Democratic candidate "exceeds the level of negative voting against the incumbent party that Gallup measured in the 1994 and 2006 elections, when party control shifted from the Democrats to the Republicans after the 1994 elections and from the Republicans to the Democrats after the 2006 elections."
"It would appear the outcome of the elections hinge on how voters evaluate the performance of President Obama and the Democratic Party. To the extent that Democrats can improve these evaluations, they may be able to reduce the proportion of negative voting against their party and reduce the share of the Republican vote as well," according to Gallup's analysis. "The Republicans may strive to give voters reasons to vote "for" them, but the examples of past midterm elections suggest that negative voting may be the pivotal factor."
As Gallup continued to dish up bad news for the Democrats, it released another report based on its Aug. 23-29 tracking data that said that the level of interest of minority and young voters in this year's election had gone down since 2008 when there was high turnout among both groups.
Nineteen percent of voters between 19 and 29 say they have given quite a lot of thought to this year's midterms, compared to a 2008 peak of 75 percent. Twenty-five percent of blacks have given quite a lot of thought to the midterms compared to a peak of 85 percent. Those who say they have given a lot of thought to an election usually become part of the pollster's "likely voter" sample.
Democrats intend to push their efforts this year to try and replicate the enthusiasm that President Obama spurred in 2008, but Gallup says young voters and blacks "are not poised to provide the same kind of boost for Democratic candidates this fall."
Follow Poll Watch on Twitter
Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place
Read Politics Daily's 2010 Elections Round-Up
While 48 percent of those surveyed said the reason for their choice was "more a vote for the Republican candidate," 44 percent said it was more a vote against the Democrat. Five percent answered "both equally" and 2 percent were undecided.
The Gallup survey this week that made news by finding a 51-percent-to-41-percent Republican advantage was based on its tracking poll conducted Aug. 23-29. The numbers in this new poll are based on a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Aug. 27-30, in which the Republicans' generic ballot advantage was 49 percent to 43 percent.
The margin of error for the number of voters who said their vote for the Republican would be an affirmative show of support was 5 points. The margin of error for those who said their vote for the Democrat would be an affirmative vote for the Democrat was 6 points.Gallup said that the 44 percent of Republican voters who say they are voting more against the Democratic candidate "exceeds the level of negative voting against the incumbent party that Gallup measured in the 1994 and 2006 elections, when party control shifted from the Democrats to the Republicans after the 1994 elections and from the Republicans to the Democrats after the 2006 elections."
"It would appear the outcome of the elections hinge on how voters evaluate the performance of President Obama and the Democratic Party. To the extent that Democrats can improve these evaluations, they may be able to reduce the proportion of negative voting against their party and reduce the share of the Republican vote as well," according to Gallup's analysis. "The Republicans may strive to give voters reasons to vote "for" them, but the examples of past midterm elections suggest that negative voting may be the pivotal factor."
As Gallup continued to dish up bad news for the Democrats, it released another report based on its Aug. 23-29 tracking data that said that the level of interest of minority and young voters in this year's election had gone down since 2008 when there was high turnout among both groups.
Nineteen percent of voters between 19 and 29 say they have given quite a lot of thought to this year's midterms, compared to a 2008 peak of 75 percent. Twenty-five percent of blacks have given quite a lot of thought to the midterms compared to a peak of 85 percent. Those who say they have given a lot of thought to an election usually become part of the pollster's "likely voter" sample.
Democrats intend to push their efforts this year to try and replicate the enthusiasm that President Obama spurred in 2008, but Gallup says young voters and blacks "are not poised to provide the same kind of boost for Democratic candidates this fall."
Follow Poll Watch on Twitter
Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place
Read Politics Daily's 2010 Elections Round-Up