Hot on HuffPost:

See More Stories

Republicans Headed for Big Pick-Up of Governor's Seats This Year

3 years ago
  0 Comments Say Something  »
Text Size
Democrats currently hold a slight majority of the nation's governor's seats but that balance of power is likely to shift dramatically after this year's midterm elections, according to a new forecast.

Polling analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com projects, based on his projection model, that Republicans are on track to control approximately 30 governors' seats after November, compared with the current lineup of 26 Democrats, 23 Republicans and 1 independent.

That's about the same swing predicted by RealClearPolitics which projects that Republicans will end up with 32 seats.

John Kasich, Ted Strickland Silver's forecast says the GOP is likely to do particularly well in the swing states of the Midwest. Endangered Democrats include Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who is trailing Republican Rep. John Kasich in polls; Gov. Chet Culver of Iowa, who has consistently been behind former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad; and Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich's successor, who is running behind Republican state Sen. Bill Brady.

There are six Republican governors running for re-election but the forecast rates the Democrats as underdogs in each of those races.

"Should the political momentum favor the Republicans this year, as seems likely, they have picked an auspicious time for it," Silver said. "This year's gubernatorial elections are unusually important because of the role that some governors play in redistricting, the process of dividing the nation into 435 congressional districts that occurs after each census."

In four states where the redistricting stakes may be high because they are likely to lose seats -- Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- the Republicans are the favorites to win the governorship.

For all of our political coverage, read Politics Daily's 2010 Elections Round-Up

Our New Approach to Comments

In an effort to encourage the same level of civil dialogue among Politics Daily’s readers that we expect of our writers – a “civilogue,” to use the term coined by PD’s Jeffrey Weiss – we are requiring commenters to use their AOL or AIM screen names to submit a comment, and we are reading all comments before publishing them. Personal attacks (on writers, other readers, Nancy Pelosi, George W. Bush, or anyone at all) and comments that are not productive additions to the conversation will not be published, period, to make room for a discussion among those with ideas to kick around. Please read our Help and Feedback section for more info.

Follow Politics Daily

  • Comics
robert-and-donna-trussell
CHAOS THEORY
Featuring political comics by Robert and Donna TrussellMore>>
  • Woman UP Video
politics daily videos
Weekly Videos
Woman Up, Politics Daily's Online Sunday ShowMore»
politics daily videos
TV Appearances
Showcasing appearances by Politics Daily staff and contributors.More>>