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Republicans Headed for Big Pick-Up of Governor's Seats This Year

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Democrats currently hold a slight majority of the nation's governor's seats but that balance of power is likely to shift dramatically after this year's midterm elections, according to a new forecast.

Polling analyst Nate Silver of projects, based on his projection model, that Republicans are on track to control approximately 30 governors' seats after November, compared with the current lineup of 26 Democrats, 23 Republicans and 1 independent.

That's about the same swing predicted by RealClearPolitics which projects that Republicans will end up with 32 seats.

John Kasich, Ted Strickland Silver's forecast says the GOP is likely to do particularly well in the swing states of the Midwest. Endangered Democrats include Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who is trailing Republican Rep. John Kasich in polls; Gov. Chet Culver of Iowa, who has consistently been behind former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad; and Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich's successor, who is running behind Republican state Sen. Bill Brady.

There are six Republican governors running for re-election but the forecast rates the Democrats as underdogs in each of those races.

"Should the political momentum favor the Republicans this year, as seems likely, they have picked an auspicious time for it," Silver said. "This year's gubernatorial elections are unusually important because of the role that some governors play in redistricting, the process of dividing the nation into 435 congressional districts that occurs after each census."

In four states where the redistricting stakes may be high because they are likely to lose seats -- Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- the Republicans are the favorites to win the governorship.

For all of our political coverage, read Politics Daily's 2010 Elections Round-Up

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Shirley Davidson

Aol is so republican biased that nothing they print can be believed when it comes to the coming elections in November. It's a different story if you talk to someone from the States they are pushing for republican wins. The tea party is splitting the republican vote and many real republicans will not vote for a candidate that is sponsored by these people. Independents are not tea party supporters and they will lose many of those votes as well.

September 06 2010 at 7:54 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply

Great to see GOP Governors in the lead. We'll see how they handle their states woes and state labor unions. 1st thing 1st will be to see how they will reduce the balloted governors staffs of the former Democratic counterparts. I would think they should pledge a 20% reduction or so as a sign they mean business, (unless of course, they don't really care about cost cutting)

September 06 2010 at 7:47 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

I wonder if the Dems. will fight and try to block everything the Republicans try to do, if they find anything good to do, like they did the President?

September 05 2010 at 10:31 PM Report abuse -5 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Ruth's comment

You are aware, aren't you, that the Democratic majority in the House and Senate did not need Republican votes. Until last November, the Dems even had a super majority in the Senate. The Dems did pass Obama care, without any GOP votes, so that wasn't blocked. Cap & Trade passed in the House, but the super majority Dems in the Senate could not agree on it. They didn't need any GOP votes. The Dems passed the financial reform bill with GOP votes. No blockage there. Obama's two choices for the Supreme Court were approved, so no block there. he DEms raised the minimum wage, with GOP votes. So, explain to me again how the Republicans blocked everything the Democrats wanted to do?

September 05 2010 at 11:10 PM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply

In Michigan , the Republican canidate has the biggest lead in the country over the Democrat for Governor. The two Senators Stabenow and Levin told me they were both for Illegal Alien amnesty , Government take over of health care , and a new National VAT Tax which Levin said he was working on creating. The only reason these two are safe is that they are not up for re-election until 2012. Every other Demovrat in Michigan is History though. They were afraid to even have Town Halls here because we were in recession 1.5 years before everyone else was in the country...just a year after the Democrats took both Houses in 2006.

September 05 2010 at 9:21 PM Report abuse +9 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to stheel4's comment

The republicans worked at blocking every thing the President tried to do.

September 05 2010 at 10:33 PM Report abuse -10 rate up rate down Reply

the republicans did nothing for Michigan..

September 06 2010 at 3:48 PM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply

what a surprise..another democrat going down the drain....and quess what? the food prices are going up especially meat and the government doesn't count that as a higher cost of living,so they dont have to give out more to people on social security...good ole it again.....

September 05 2010 at 6:43 PM Report abuse +12 rate up rate down Reply

If the GOP gets back in, one of the first things cut will be veterans benifits.Short memories.

September 05 2010 at 6:05 PM Report abuse -17 rate up rate down Reply
dc walker

The AZ governor is trying to protect her state and the taxes she collects from legal residents and US citizens. What does she get for this?? A law suit by the Justice Department. And, this week, we have the State Department after her by filing with the United Nations Commission of Human Rights to look into this. Who is on the commission???Libya and Cuba. Can you believe that this administration has to go to an INTERNATIONAL BODY to protect the people of Mexico from the taxpaying people of Arizona??? And people are talking about a rug in his office today??? I have never in all my years anticipated an upcoming election I just hope the American people have been paying attention.

September 05 2010 at 5:15 PM Report abuse +21 rate up rate down Reply
Escobar Realty

Everyone God decided this race like he did everything else, thousands of years ago. Polls don't matter, whose in office don't matter, and most of us don't matter. Watch what you say and teach your children they are watching you and God is too. We are all brothers and sisters of one God, and there was only one Adam and Eve. I guess that means love all those republicans,democrats and any other party alike.

September 05 2010 at 4:57 PM Report abuse -5 rate up rate down Reply
Beautiful Rita

Dems AND republicans know the public is watching now. Thank God for FOX news to fill us in. Bad from BOTH parties are being watched now.

September 05 2010 at 4:45 PM Report abuse +17 rate up rate down Reply

Bush blew it with the Prescription Drug Benefit, No Child Left Behind, The Patriot Act, and trying to bring Democracy to a stone-age culture, but he did reduce the crushing tax burden on those of us that actually produce things and he did put sensible Supreme Court justices in place. Obama, Pelosi and Reed are on a crusade to bring the "wealthy" small business owners (that earn over $200,000 per household) down to the level of a relatively successful Welfare Queen, making, say $30,000. If the Republicans gain the majority in the House and Senate, they have the opportunity to slow the destruction of our middle class, but if they vote like RINO's then Obama will win in 2012. If they stay true to conservative principles of individual rights and limited government then they will all be re-elected in 2012 and a Republican will win the White House. here's where it gets scary. If it's McCain or some other RINO then we'll be bogged down in PORK and progressive policy for 4 years and no Republican will ever get elected again. The best we can hope for if this happens is Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, Oklahoma and Texas breaking off from the Union and advertising for folks that believe in individual liberty and responsibility to move there.

September 05 2010 at 4:43 PM Report abuse +17 rate up rate down Reply

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