Poll Finds Tight Races in California and Florida, and a Surprise in Kentucky

A new poll of key midterm election states shows tight contests for governor and Senate in California and Florida, as do other recent polls. But, unlike other surveys that have put Rand Paul ahead by double-digits in the Kentucky Senate race, this one finds him tied with Democrat Jack Conway.

Paul, who rode the Tea Party movement to the GOP nomination, is tied with Conway, the state's attorney general, at 46 percent each with 9 percent undecided or liking neither, according to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 2-7. (The margin of error for all three polls is 3.5 points and they were all taken during the same time period).

A Rasmussen Reports poll released earlier Wednesday and conducted Sept. 7 had Paul leading Conway 54 percent to 39 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1 put Paul ahead by 55 percent to 40 percent. Unlike the CNN/Time poll, both those surveys tested likely voters rather than all registered voters. Most pollsters move to "likely voter" models as elections near and voters get more focused on the races.

In Florida, CNN/Time says Republican Marco Rubio holds a statistically-insignificant lead over independent Charlie Crist, running ahead of him by 36 percent to 34 percent. Democrat Kendrick Meek gets 24 percent and 6 percent are undecided or don't like any of the choices. Crist is attracting 36 percent of the Democratic vote, 45 percent of independents and 21 percent of his onetime fellow Republicans.

Rubio draws 70 percent support from Republicans while Meek is languishing at 54 percent support from his own party.

Democrat Alex Sink, Florida's chief financial officer, is leading Republican Rick Scott, the wealthy former health care executive, by 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided or liking neither.

In California, three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leads former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina 48 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided or liking neither.

For governor, former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman is leading state Attorney General Jerry Brown 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent undecided or liking neither.

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