Campaign 2010: Democrats, Calm Down. Really?

One poll does not a reversal of fortune make. Real Clear Politics has the GOP 7.6 points ahead in the national poll average. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

I have to ask Is he kidding himself or is he really that out of touch with what Americans have been talking about for the last 6 months ! Things are not working , People are not working ! David get a grip and face the facts .

"Most of the Democrats who voted for Obamacare are now trying to disown it...." I actually came across one Democrat defending Obamacare, my own Congressman, Brian Baird. The guy, by the way, is not running for re-election .........................

Most of the Democrats who voted for Obamacare are now trying to disown it....

9.6% UNEMPLOYMENT and going up! More corrupt spending and debt than in the history of the world! An Economy going back into recession! Radical left wing policies that have totally failed and severely damaged the nation! I agree! Democrats should relax, they have nothing to worry about!!

If David Corn is right he will be hailed as the only person smart enough to have spotted the turn of the trend. If you throw the polls out and just look at the primaries and special elections since Scott Brown, focusing on turnout, the tale is pretty frightening for the Democrats. Its like saying that Obama-mania was a mirage two years ago and McCain really had a shot. This current wave is a wave as strong as the one in 08, its just occurring in a different demographic. The Obama wave was composed of one-time voters, many unlikely to vote again. The counter wave is among likely voter Republicans and independents. They are not likely to stop being angry at the total failure of the Democratic agenda within the next few weeks. No Obama magic will get his voters to the polls.

Actually, Mr. Corn is on to something that conservatives can celebrate. Obama's election was, in the end, no big deal. It was due to minor shifts in the electorate, and an enthusiasm gap in 2008. The gains the Democrats made in 2006 and 2008 were unsustainable. The Republicans will make gains in November, perhaps regaining a majority, perhaps mot, but the political scene no matter will be VERY different. I think it goes without saying that the progressives are done, perhaps for a couple of generations. Their agenda has been completely discredited. We will now spend God knows how long cleaning up after this mess, but non-progressive Democrats and Republicans will be working together on the clean-up. The proof is in the tepid response of Democrats to Obama's latest stimulus "plan", and the fact that NO Democrat is running on the health care reform. Instead, they are running away from it. Where I think Corm is wrong is in the long-term outlook. 50-50 nation? Maybe no longer. It is possible that Obama/Pelosi/Reid have awakened the sleeping giant - Americans now realize that what we have can't be taken for granted. Corn is probably wrong, too, in the shorter term analysis. (To be more accurate, I guess, the analysts he discusses are probably wrong.) Obama, who ran as a non-partisan bridge-builder, loses credibility with moderate voters when he plays to his base, as he is doing now. He may ramp up a bit of support from the progressive wing, but at the expense of support from left of center mods. It's a real possibility. As for the band of support for Obama within the mid-40s being not too bad - time will tell. His trajectory is down, down, down - especially amongst likely voters, and his approval ratings on specific issues are generally below his overall approval rating. I don't think his approval ratings mean that much yet, but I suspect they will slide down the closer we get to the election and people associate him with the Democrats running closer to him. We'll see, but I think at least one poll will have him down to 37% by November 2.

The polls have been pretty steady with the exception of Gallup's, which are manic depressive. I would say Gallup's poll is only of any use if you take a 90 day moving average. (and then of course it becomes a lagging indicator) There are some good observations in Corn's article: For example: The election of Obama was not a watershed event. (it was largely a vote of no confidence in George Bush, rather than a vote of confidence in the Democrats) The bottom line is that 30% of the public are progressive and 50% of the Congress is. Even in a neutral economy, that is a huge overrepresentation of progressives in Washington. The November elections will go a long way in correcting that disequilibrium. When the Democrats contemplate their losses, they should be consoled in the fact that they mostly lost seats in Congress that didn't really belong to them in the first place.

David, It is said that one of the first responses by humans to threat or calamity is denial. I am afraid what you have described underscores this sense of denial of the Democrats . It appears the country has soundly and overwhelmingly rejected this forced march to a European /Cloward and Piven social engineering takeover. The one thing that progressives/liberal/socialist ALWAYS underestimate is the number of sovereign individuals that THIS country has created.....they will not bend to the will of an administration with a social engineered coup d'etat in mind. These are the same individuals that take risks and create businesses for themselves ,NOT for the benefit of the government. I will go out on a limb and say that this administration is the least likely to understand ANYTHING about a free and sovereign individuals mindset..... It is too bad because this will be the stumbling block that they will NEVER succeed in converting to the liberal society that this administration is so dead set to establish. The one good thing that has happened with this administration is it has presented it "vision" for the country. The country now has a firm idea of what it DOES NOT WANT TO BE. This could not have happened with a more moderate President...So in some way this may be the only good thing that arises from the first 18 months of this administration.

Maybe it's that I am middle aged but I think the first problem is the constant complaints by liberal pundits who didn't get what they thought they should at first. We have had more progress in 18 months than in decades but we forgot to celebrate and continue working to change. We underestimated the wealth fighting us. The pundits turned people off. Now they have to motivate and most are. Nothing was perfect the first time around but it is pretty darn good. In the meantime we didn't see the insidious forces marshaled against us. Fired UP!