Congress Returns to Washington With Everything on the Line

After a five-week recess in their home states and districts, members of the House and Senate return to Washington this week with a mile-long list of items left to tackle before the end of the year, but precious little time before the crucial midterm elections. With polls showing Democrats in danger of losing either or both chambers of Congress, each vote before the election will be scrutinized by jittery incumbents for its ability to aid or hurt their very survival.

Top congressional advisers say the electoral anxiety will likely translate to an abbreviated September session, dominated by heated debates over the economy and the expiring Bush tax cuts, but with few votes cast before hand-wringing legislators head for the exits. Everything else will wait for a lame duck session of Congress, when possible changes in the balance of power for Democrats in the Senate could make reaching a 60-vote threshold even more difficult after the elections than it already is.

The September sprint started Monday, when the Senate voted to confirm Jane Stranch to the federal appeals court by a vote of 71 to 21. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid then began the debate on a small business jobs bill that would create a $30 billion fund within the Treasury Department for financing small businesses and give small business $12 billion more in tax breaks. Although Republicans repeatedly filibustered the bill over the summer, GOP Sen. George Voinovich announced Friday that he'll join the Democrats to move the measure forward, all but guaranteeing its passage.

On the House side this week, look for members to vote on items related to Democrats' "Make it in America" agenda to boost American manufacturing, including proposals from Reps. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) and Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) to impose "Buy American" requirements on federal agencies.

Not to be outdone by the Democrats' messaging efforts, House Republicans to unveil their long-awaited update of the GOP's Contract With America in a modern, decidedly outside-the-beltway package of reforms and promises culled from their America Speaking Out project. One visual we're told you shouldn't look for: An unveiling on the Capitol steps, the ultimate symbol of lawmakers who have "gone Washington."

The only other item that will absolutely get a vote before Congress adjourns is a continuing resolution to finance the federal government past Oct. 1, when the current spending levels for the government expire.

Apart from the legislative agenda, public ethics trials for Reps. Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters could also happen in September, although senior Democrats indicate to Politics Daily that a trial before the elections is not certain. House rules require that Rangel and Waters receive 15-days advance notice of the details of any trial against them, which would put the trials' earliest start dates in early October, when the House is scheduled to recess.

Regan LaChapelle, a spokeswoman for Reid, said several other items could come up on the Senate calendar before October, but none of them is guaranteed a vote. As a general rule, the more controversial an item is, the less likely Democrats are going to be to take it up before facing the voters back home.

-- The Expiring Bush Tax Cuts: Although most Democrats are eager to debate keeping tax cuts for people making more than $250,000 per year amid a ballooning federal deficit, several moderate Democrats -- some in danger in November -- have no interest in voting for a measure that Republicans portray as a massive tax increase. Possible September tax-cut scenarios include Democrats introducing a bill to extend the Bush tax cuts for lower and middle class earners, with no mention of higher income earners; or a bill that temporarily extends all of the Bush tax cuts for a year or two. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said last week he expects a hot debate on the tax-cut question in the House and Senate this month, but no votes until after the midterm elections.

-- Don't Ask Don't Tell: The House has already passed the Defense Authorization bill, which sets policies and spending levels for the Pentagon. This year the bill also includes language to begin lifting the ban on gays serving openly in the military. Reid will bring the bill up for a vote next week, but Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, has repeatedly opposed the measure and could block it again, postponing a vote or even killing it altogether this Congress.

-- Food Safety: After a nationwide egg recall and salmonella scare, the time seems right for Congress to take up a languishing bill to increase food safety inspections. The House passed the bill more than a year ago, but push back from farmers and plastics makers (upset over a provision to ban a chemical in baby bottles) tied it up in the Senate. If senators heard more from worried consumers than jittery farmers over the August recess, look for a vote before the elections.

-- FAA Re-authorization Bill: Congress has labored for three years over the contentious bill that sets rules and regulations for the airline industry. The final version of the bill would increase pilot training requirements and improve passenger rights, but ongoing disputes over labor issues at FedEx and flights into Washington's Reagan National Airport could keep the legislation grounded.

-- Any One of 13 Appropriations Bills: The Senate has not passed a single appropriations bill this year, while the House has passed just two of the 13 bills that finance the federal government. With voters' heartburn over federal spending near an all-time high, chances are slim that Congress will wade into those waters before the lame duck session since all of the bills would increase government spending to some degree. Get out your calculators and add these to the lame duck column.

So what will pass Congress before the elections and hat won't? LaChapelle says it's up to GOP senators, who have successfully stalled or filibustered several of the Democrats' top priorities since President Barack Obama moved into the White House in 2009. "They haven't been cooperative over the past couple of years, and I don't expect that to change when we return," she said. "Hopefully we'll be able to get things completed. Anything that we do will need Republican support."

Although punting the toughest items until after the midterms may seem like the safest course of action for Democrats eager to return to the campaign trail, a quirk in election laws could significantly rein in Reid and his fellow Democrats for the rest of the year. If Republicans win elections in Illinois, Delaware or West Virginia, where special elections will decide who fills the unexpired terms of former senators Obama and Joe Biden, as well the late Robert Byrd, the GOP could control up to three more seats when the Senate comes back for the lame duck session, a huge potential shift in the balance of power.

A fourth special election is taking place in Colorado, but the secretary of state there has ruled that it is up to Sen. Michael Bennet, the appointed Democratic senator, as to whether he wants to stay in the Senate through January. Bennet is running for election against GOP hopeful Ken Buck, and said he's keeping the seat through January no matter what.

The Senate's first vote is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Monday.