Poll Watch Round-Up: Latest on Tuesday's Hot Primary Races

The big primaries to watch Tuesday night are on the Republican side, which has been featuring more Tea Party vs. the Establishment battles than Democrats, who are presumably the people the movement most wants to beat on Election Day.

Here's a round-up of the latest Poll Watch dispatches on those races:

Kelly Ayotte Tries to Hold on in GOP's New Hampshire Senate Primary

Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, long considered a shoo-in for the GOP Senate nomination, still is out in front with Tuesday's primary at hand, but she has seen her lead shrink over Ovide Lamontagne, a Tea Party-favored lawyer.

Ayotte tops the GOP field with 37 percent, followed by Lamontagne, who now is at 30 percent after lagging far behind for much of the year, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 11-12. Twenty-eight percent of Republicans are divided among five other candidates and 5 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 2.9 points.

At one point, Lamontagne was running 39 points behind Ayotte.

Lamontagne has received backing from Tea Party movement activists and the blessing of Sen. Jim DeMint, head of the Senate Conservatives Fund, which has backed several candidates this year who challenged the choices of the GOP establishment. Politico reports that Ken Buck, who rode a Tea Party wave to the GOP Senate nomination in Colorado, is headlining a fundraiser for Lamontagne.

For her part, Ayotte has the endorsement of Sarah Palin and PPP says that if she fends off Lamontagne's surge it will be because "she managed to be the Tea Party candidate herself." The poll found that, of the third of Republican primary voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, she edges Lamontagne by 38 percent to 37 percent.

"It looks like Kelly Ayotte will hang on, but the momentum has certainly been in Ovide Lamontagne's direction, so an upset is not out of the question," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "Our general election polling finds little difference between how Ayotte and Lamontagne do against Paul Hodes, so it may not matter from an electability standpoint."

A PPP poll conducted July 23-25 had Ayotte ahead of Democrat Hodes by 45 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided, while Hodes led Lamontagne by 43 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.26 points.

Republicans in Delaware Try to Beat Back Challenger to Rep. Mike Castle for Senate Nod

Christine O'Donnell, the insurgent candidate for the GOP Senate nomination in Delaware backed by the Tea Party Express and Sarah Palin, may be poised to knock off the man who was long presumed to be the nominee and best bet in the general election, nine-term Rep. Mike Castle, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 11-12.

If she pulls off that feat, it may give hope to the Democrat Chris Coons, the New Castle County executive, who had started narrowing down Castle's once big lead in the race but still lagged behind him in the battle for the seat vacated by now-Vice President Joseph Biden.

O'Donnell is leading Castle 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided heading into Tuesday's primary. The margin of error is 3.8 points.

Castle has suffered from the fact that 55 percent of likely Republican voters think he is too liberal, and that has resulted in 47 percent seeing him unfavorably compared to 43 percent who regard him favorably, with 10 percent undecided. In August, Castle had been seen favorably by 60 percent of Republicans.

However, O'Donnell is bringing a lot of baggage to the table and that is what could benefit Coons, whose county has the state's largest population and includes Wilmington.

While 53 percent of Republicans consider her views "about right," those who see her favorably outnumber those who see her unfavorably by only 45 percent to 41 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

O'Donnell, a marketing executive and political commentator who lost to Biden in 2008 by a 65 percent to 35 percent margin, has been the focus of a series of controversies over her public statements -- she told the Weekly Standard that political rivals had been stalking her -- and a messy wrongful termination lawsuit she filed against a conservative non-profit group.

PPP said that only half of Republican primary voters considered her fit to hold office while 37 percent did not, with 13 percent undecided.

As for the value of Palin's endorsement, 42 percent of the Republicans surveyed said an endorsement by Palin wouldn't make a difference in their decisions on how to vote, while 35 percent said they'd be more likely to vote for the candidate and 24 percent said they'd be less likely.

"The biggest winner of the Delaware GOP primary may end up being Chris Coons," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "Running against O'Donnell or a wounded Castle will put him in his strongest position since he entered the race."

Carl Paladino Tries to Capitalize on Voter Anger in Contest for GOP Governor Nomination in New York

Winning the Republican nomination to run for governor of New York this year may be somewhat akin to getting a chance to bat against Mariano Rivera with two outs in the ninth inning, since every poll all year has indicated that the only way Democratic state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo can lose is if it is discovered he's actually a resident of New Jersey.

The presumed Republican front-runner for the honor has been former Long Island Rep. Rick Lazio, who served eight years in the House, which came to an end when he got trounced by Hillary Clinton in her first race for the Senate in 2000.

His race against Clinton was remembered mainly for two things: having to jump in with five months to go before Election Day when then-New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani decided not to take her on, and Lazio's disastrous gambit in his debate with Clinton when he left his podium and walked over to her, demanding that she sign a document called the "New York Freedom From Soft Money Pledge."

Many state Republicans thought little enough of Lazio's chances of winning that, at one point, the party's new chairman, Edward Cox, got behind Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, a Democrat who switched to the GOP to get into the race. But Lazio managed to fend off Levy by winning the party's backing at its June convention.

But now, Lazio faces what a new poll says is a serious challenge to his chances for winning Tuesday's GOP primary in the person of Carl Paladino, an unpredictable and outspoken wealthy real estate magnate from upstate Buffalo.

In a poll conducted Sept. 7-9, the Siena Research Institute found Lazio clinging to a statistically insignificant 43 percent to 42 percent lead with 15 percent undecided.

Some have credited Tea Party movement activists for Paladino's rise although, in the Siena poll, he leads Lazio among movement supporters by only 47 percent to 42 percent. But the New York Times said that, especially outside of New York City, he is benefiting from the angry-voter climate and widespread distaste for the seemingly dysfunctional state government in Albany.

Siena's Steven Greenberg says, "A heavier than normal Republican turnout upstate will likely hand the nomination to Paladino, who leads upstate 53-32 percent, while a heavier than normal downstate suburban turnout will likely make Lazio the Republican nominee, as he leads there 55-30 percent. Lazio also leads 53-33 percent in New York City, which traditionally produces a smaller vote than any region in a Republican primary."

The Siena survey differs from one conducted Aug. 23-29 by Quinnipiac University, which still had Lazio ahead of Paladino by 47 percent to 35 percent with 12 percent undecided.

As for what Lazio or Paladino can expect, whoever wins, Quinnipiac's poll said Cuomo leads Lazio by 57 percent to 25 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Paladino by 60 percent to 23 percent with 16 percent undecided. In each case, Cuomo attracts about a quarter of the Republican vote.

Newcomer Ron Johnson Expected to Breeze Through GOP Senate Primary in Wisconsin

Plastics manufacturer and political newcomer Ron Johnson already has the Wisconsin state GOP's endorsement to run against Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, but he still needs to win a Sept. 14 primary -- something he is expected to do easily against two barely known and very underfinanced candidates.

Feingold, seeking his fourth term, had at one time been considered a shoo-in for re-election, especially after former Gov. Tommy Thompson decided not to challenge him.

But Feingold now finds himself in a likely dogfight with Johnson. The two have been statistically tied in six Rasmussen Reports polls dating to late May. The New York Times says that Feingold's polls show him in "an unexpectedly tough race" against a challenger who so far has already spent three times as much as he has.

Johnson's remaining challengers for the GOP nomination are businessman Dave Westlake and late entry Stephen Finn, whose campaign site says he has "worked steadily in the construction industry, specifically plumbing," although the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, in a roundup on the GOP race on Sunday, said Finn has "been mostly unemployed since early 2009, and he is on the verge of losing his south side Milwaukee home to foreclosure."

The Journal Sentinel says Westlake has been campaigning as a "hard-line conservative and self-described constitutional purist" and says Johnson is not ready for prime time.

A profile of Johnson last May by conservative columnist George Will said Johnson described Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged" as his "foundational book." Will says Johnson "gets much of his meat from The Wall Street Journal's opinion pages."

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