Kelly Ayotte Starts Out with Small Lead Over Democrat Paul Hodes in N.H.

Republican Kelly Ayotte, who squeaked through to victory over a Tea Party-backed candidate to win New Hampshire's GOP Senate nomination, leads Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes by a bare 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 11-12. Nine percent are undecided. The margin of error is 2.2 points.

The poll, conducted before the primary, said that had businessman Ovide Lamontagne been the GOP nominee, he would be leading Hodes by 47 percent to 44 percent with 10 percent undecided.

Both Ayotte and Lamontagne attracted about half of independents (30 percent of the sample), leading Hodes on that score by double-digits. All-in-all, the numbers are very unlike the Delaware Senate race where Tea Party favorite and GOP primary winner Christine O'Donnell starts out 16 points behind Democrat Chris Coons while the man she defeated, veteran Rep. Michael Castle, would have been leading him.

Voters have unfavorable views of both Ayotte and Hodes. Forty-seven percent regard Ayotte unfavorably compared to 35 percent who see her favorably, with 18 percent undecided. Forty-six percent see Hodes unfavorably compared to 35 percent who see him favorably, with 19 percent undecided. Lamontagne had been seen favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 33 percent, but his disadvantage would have been that 31 percent didn't know enough about him to have an opinion.

"Kelly Ayotte's negatives have doubled over the last five months," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "She still starts out favored in the general election but this has the potential to be a very close race."

Hodes and Ayotte are contending for the seat held by GOP Sen. Judd Gregg, who chose not to run again.

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