GOP 'Enthusiasm' Remains Higher Than Democrats' as Election Day Nears

The latest measure of the "enthusiasm gap" as Election Day draws near documents again what polls have been showing for months: the percentage of Republicans energized about the midterms is substantially higher than is the case for Democrats, according to a Marist College/McClatchy poll conducted Sept. 14-16.

A third of registered voters overall say they are "very enthusiastic" about voting this November. Forty-six percent of Republicans are very enthusiastic compared to 30 percent of Democrats, while independents are the least engaged with 23 percent in the "very enthusiastic" column. For independents, that's a change in mood from 2008 when they turned out for President Obama and the Democrats.

Forty-three percent of self-identified conservatives say they are very enthusiastic compared to 32 percent of liberals and 19 percent of moderates.

Fifty percent of those who say they support the Tea Party movement are also in the "very enthusiastic" column. In the poll, 34 percent said they supported the movement (with 11 percent saying they were strong supporters) while 55 percent did not, with 11 percent undecided.

Forty-eight percent say they want Republicans to win control of Congress while 46 percent do not, with 6 percent undecided. Independents are split with 44 percent wanting the Democrats to retain control and 43 percent favoring the Republicans, with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

On the generic congressional ballot question, 47 percent said they were more likely to vote for the Republican in their district while 45 percent said they'd likely vote for the Democrat, with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points on this question, too.

Read: Generic Congressional Polls: Believe Them . . . or Not?

Sixty-one percent of voters who are very enthusiastic about voting this November say they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate while 34 percent of "very enthusiastic" voters are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate.

Gallup's tracking poll for the Sept. 13-19 period had 46 percent favoring the Democrat and 45 percent supporting the Republican. The margin of error is 2 points. The sample, like Marist's, is of registered voters, not likely voters.

Polling analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com says, "on average, over the course of this election cycle, likely voter polls have favored Republican candidates by about 4 points compared with registered voter polls, perhaps reflecting greater enthusiasm among Republican voters in most regions of the country." By that rule of thumb, you would add 4 points to the Republican numbers if the sample was likely voters.


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