Upstart Carl Paladino in 'Shouting Distance' of Andrew Cuomo in N.Y. Governor Race

Buffalo millionaire Carl Paladino stunned the Republican establishment in New York by beating its candidate for the gubernatorial nomination, and the latest surprise is how close he is to Democrat Andrew Cuomo in a new Quinnipiac University poll on the gubernatorial race.

Cuomo, the state's attorney general who has been regarded as a prohibitive favorite in governor's contest, leads Paladino by only 49 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to the poll conducted Sept. 16-20. The margin of error is 3.6 points.

"The question was whether Carl Paladino would get a bounce from his big Republican primary victory," said Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll. "The answer is yes. He's within shouting distance and – you can count on it – he will be shouting."

Paladino, known for his blunt and brash style, had celebrated his Sept. 14 primary victory over presumed frontrunner Rick Lazio by declaring, ""We are mad as hell. New Yorkers are fed up. Tonight the ruling class knows. They have seen it now. There is a people's revolution. The people have had enough."

Twenty-one percent of likely voters say they yet may change their minds, including 23 percent for Cuomo and 18 percent for Paladino.

Paladino has appeal to people in the Tea Party movement, but while only 18 percent of likely New York voters consider themselves part of it, but they back Paladino by 77 percent to 18 percent.

The Quinnipiac poll did not touch on the possibility that Lazio might remain in the race as the candidate of the Conservative Party, whose nomination he won in the primary. Top Republicans in New York are trying to persuade Lazio not to run on that line because he would siphon votes from Paladino, according to the Albany Times Union. Lazio is supposed to speak Wednesday to the New York Associated Press Association where he may announce his intentions, the newspaper said.

State GOP chairman Ed Cox, whose relations with Lazio have been strained, sent him a letter signed by regional chairman from the party saying, "As you can see from the latest polls, this race is tightening and our chances for success are growing. You have a unique opportunity to ensure our entire ticket is running on the Conservative line and that we all stand united behind our nominees."

While the Conservative Party is far behind the major parties in voter registration, it does have a constituency in the state, (in 1970, James L. Buckley, brother of William F. Buckley, ran on the Conservative line and won a three-way race against Republican incumbent Charles Goodell and Democrat Richard Ottinger, who split the liberal vote).

The Quinnipiac poll said Cuomo is regarded favorably by a 51 percent to 34 percent margin, with 13 percent saying they haven't heard enough to have an opinion. The standout number right now for Paladino is that 31 percent say they haven't heard enough to know how they feel about him.

A factor in Paladino's close showing against Cuomo appears to be the desire for change in New York, whose state government and politics have sometimes appeared to be dysfunctional.

Given a choice of four qualities that mattered most to them in deciding who to support, the top pick was "brings change" which was cited by 41 percent, almost 2-to-1 over "honest/trustworthy" and "shares values."

"Cuomo might be a victim of his own excess," Carroll said. "Politicians and polls have depicted him so relentlessly as a sure thing that he might be a victim of the 'throw the bums out' attitude that hits incumbents in this angry year."

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