Judging Obama's Approval Rating: Let's Go to the (History) Books

There is a problem: BO has a more polarized base than anyone else in the history of this country. You can say it does not matter, but 12% of the Americans that support him at record 90% levels consistently are concentrated *exactly* where they will do the Democrats the least good. In other words, African American voters are in highly Democrat leaning districts or even in districts where *they* are the minority majority that almost always gives a Democrat a seat. Those seats would probably not change even if Obama had only the 11% popularity that his most blind (or maybe not so blind -- especially not *color* blind) supporters give him. In other words, those votes really mean *nothing* in this election cycle. They are just part of a rubber stamp and worthless in testing the political temperature. Take that 11% out of the 45% and you are left with 34% *legitimate* support to make projections based upon, and frankly, that is low enough to think that he may go lower than Harry's 33% approval nationwide among everyone who is *not* African American! There was also another poll that was done about the turn of the century that was grossly wrong because they did not pay attention and adjust for current trends in technology, or more accurately, the human factors response to that technology. The majority of polling is currently done by phone. However, there is another group that consistently calls at about the same time polsters do: Bill collectors. If you are tired of talking to bill collectors, you probably do not answer the phone if you don't know who is calling. So you are likely *not* included in any poll that was trying to include you in their *random* sample. There is the rub. If the people who *don't* answer the phone are distributed randomly with respect to the answers you expect them to give to your questions, the effect is minimal. But is that the case here? I don't think so! If you are suffering that badly in this economy, do you think your attitude is going to be positive? I doubt it, and usually that translates *very* badly with a high degree of correlation against the party that controls the White House. To me, that sounds like there is a serious risk that these polls are greatly undercounting the negative outlook in the population at large. I think a *lot* of people are suffering in an economy often compared to the "Great Depresssion" and that leads me to believe the chance of skewed data is *extremely* high! My prediction? Democrats loose 10 in the Senate and 70 in the House, which *is* record breaking, I know! But the incompetence in Congress and the White House has some people thinking *that* might also be record breaking, and they may want a *real* change this time! ;'{P~~~

Nixon wasn't impleached. The only president impeached in the twentieth century was Bill Clinton.

In other words, if history repeat itself, Obama will lose the House and the Senate, not because Americans dislike him but because of his Government poor performance in jobs and the economy in general.

Nixon wasn't impeached.

Nice spin, Bruce. You are forgetting the overall number of registared Dem/Rep voters in your calculations