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Low or High Turnout? GOP Has Big Advantage Either Way in the Midterms

1 year ago
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Gallup is noted for its "generic" congressional ballot which it says has historically been a good predictor of outcomes in the battle for the House. Now that it is so close to Election Day, the pollster has moved to a model that samples likely voters -- those most motivated to turn out -- as opposed to all registered voters, who may or may not show up.

The results: In a high turnout scenario, the Republicans lead by 53 percent to 40 percent when voters are asked which party's candidate they would vote for in their district. In a lower turnout scenario, the Republican edge is 56 percent to 38 percent -- a larger spread that reflects greater enthusiasm so far among GOP voters.

Gallup came up with those results based on polling conducted Sept. 23-Oct. 3.
Voters
For all registered voters -- not just those likely to show up on Election Day -- the outcome is closer. The Republican edge is only 46 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 2 points. The margin of error for likely voters is 3 points.

Independents favor the Republicans by 56 percent to 31 percent in a high turnout scenario and by 56 percent to 38 percent if the turnout is lower.

Generic Congressional Polls: Believe Them . . . or Not?

Gallup says, based on its past models, that if Democrats get less than 47 percent of the national two-party vote, it is a strong predictor that Republicans would win enough seats to take control of the House.

But Gallup cautions: "At this point, four weeks remain until Election Day, and given the already-high levels of Republican enthusiasm, it is possible that Democrats could have relatively greater gains among likely voters over the next month. This history suggests that the likely voter model results at this point should be viewed as describing the current state of affairs, but not as predictive of the final party vote shares on Nov. 2."

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10 Comments

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Rayman

I think it is rather sad that there may be a chance for Republicans to gain control of the house, for a party that did nothing for 8yrs except allow jobs to be lost for cheap labor abroud, and will never come back. What will happen here is the same that happened to Wal-Mart. Sam made sure everything he sold was American made, when he died everything changed to cheap off shore products. That enabled the offspring to become billionares, each worth about 17 billion. And the pay for wal-mart employees is close to sweat shop wages.

October 20 2010 at 9:16 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
gianonick

The genie is out of the bottle. History and daily life clearly reveals that "an angry individual rarely behaves rationally". A state of anger does not permit thinking through a problem, its causes, posssible solutions, respect for others viewpoints, etc. Explosions ofthen cause irreparable damage that require expensive long time repair to a nationn's morale and optimism. gianonick

October 07 2010 at 9:25 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
cejantzi

Why you should vote in November: l. Vote for the ideas and values that will make the world a better place for you and your loved ones. 2. Vote because you are a free citizen only because of the power to vote. 3. Vote because if you do not vote you have no right to ever complain about things political or economic or social (though you undoubtedly will, anyway) 4. Vote because the world needs America to be strong now as much as at any other time in history. 5. Vote - it's a "freebie"

October 05 2010 at 10:23 AM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
tausands

You know, I might trust these polls if just once in the last thirty-two years I or anybody I know had been contacted for just one of them. How does one get to vote in these? Are they voluntary? Do they call you? Are they made up out of whole cloth?

October 05 2010 at 10:05 AM Report abuse -3 rate up rate down Reply
cejantzi

It is unfortunate that the political landscape has become such a bog with "mud-creatures" slinging slime and insults at each other like a schoolyard-bully fight. Both parties underestimate the intelligence of the masses. We are not sheep. Nor are we Homer Simpson. Latinos have a brain, Blacks have a brain, Union workers have a brain - and none of these groups are meerly a mass of sheep, all voting the same. We are a nation of INDIVIDUALS WITH A BRAIN. Please remember this all ewes rams out there. Vote YOUR conscience in November, not the herd UN-conscience the politicians want you to believe you have.

October 05 2010 at 10:05 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
ialbel

Obama overreached following his historic election. Now that Americans have rejected his radical, socialist agenda we can thank this president for his ineffectual approaches, and underhanded style. Obama's failure to listen to the voters has awakened and energized his opposition. Soon enough he can slink off to run for president of the world since that was his original plan. Perhaps he can be president of France, Greece or maybe even Venezuela or Cuba. Those countries need his arroagance if they plan to continue the "big brother" style of governing. Thanks again, Mr. President ...you defeated socialism in the US.

October 05 2010 at 8:31 AM Report abuse +7 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to ialbel's comment
ialbel

Johnny ...are your feathers ruffled? You toss that race card around like you have been doing it for awhile? I don't know you, but if in an anonymous post you have to throw your race cards onto the table ...methinks thou doth protest too much. Pretty handy defense for some, I guess. Been the victim for a long time, sir? You should be ashamed of your post, but I do not see much honest appraisal on the left side of things ... Great stone throwers on that side of the spectrum.

October 05 2010 at 3:34 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
ialbel

Obama overreached after his huge win. He understimated the resolve of the US voters. He is way too far on the left and we should all thank him for what he has done. He has awakened an American spirit I have not seen or heard since before Viet Nam. Americans are becoming more patriotic on a daily basis. The 60s radicals have aged and will fade from the landscape shortly. As I fade with them I can rejoice in their failures. Left wing ideology is exposed.

October 05 2010 at 8:23 AM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
Kenneth

This November election will totally depend on voter turnout. The Democrats biggest problem is going to getting those people that are registered but never really vote out to the polls as they did in 2008. Their biggest problem will come from getting the inter city people fired up. This is the group that gave Obama is big win in 2008. The problem is that this group in most cases were the ones worst hit by this economy and this group feels in most part they were lied to. The Democrats will need a very heavy loyal party turnout since they will not carry the Republican vote they had in 2008, They have lost a majority of the independent voters and they have lost a fair amount of the Registered Democrats that do not always vote party. This election will cause many of those political annalists that try and determine the outcome by voter registration to walk off talking to themselves.

October 05 2010 at 8:01 AM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Kenneth's comment
tausands

Considering that 90% of donations to Democrats are by people who can chip in around $5 or $10 and that 90% of donations to Republicans are from three billionaires, I think Democrats are actually showing greater enthusiasm for holding on to the senate and House. I don't doubt the nutcakes the Republicans are running this year has hurt much in that respect either.

October 05 2010 at 10:08 AM Report abuse -8 rate up rate down Reply

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