Tancredo Gains, but Hickenlooper Still Leads Colorado Governor Race

Democrat John Hickenlooper continues to hold a double-digit lead in Colorado's governor race, but third-party candidate Tom Tancredo is pushing up his vote total thanks to success in consolidating more Republican votes behind his candidacy, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2.

This is the same trend that appeared the other day in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 3, although that one had Tancredo, a longtime Republican congressman, moving to within single digits of Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver.

In the PPP poll, Hickenlooper is out in front by 47 percent with Tancredo at 33 percent, Republican Dan Maes falling to 13 percent and 7 percent undecided. PPP's August poll had Hickenlooper with 48 percent, Maes with 23 percent and Tancredo close on his heels with 22 percent.

For those who forgot the story line of this race: during the Republican primary, Tancredo threatened to run on an independent ticket unless Maes and the one-time frontrunner, former Rep. Scott McInnis, dropped out. Both Maes and McInnis were plagued by a series of negative stories and Tancredo asserted that neither could win. Tancredo repeated his ultimatum after Maes won the primary, and when Maes vowed to stay in the race, Tancredo announced he would be the candidate of the American Constitution Party.

While one good reason for Hickenlooper's consistent leads in the polls has been the prospect of a split Republican vote, PPP says another reason is that, based on his favorability figures, "he's one of the most popular candidates running for Governor anywhere in the country this year."

Fifty-one percent view Hickenlooper favorably compared to 37 percent who do not, with 12 percent undecided. Tancredo, often a controversial figure best known for his fierce opposition to illegal immigration, is seen unfavorably by 45 percent to 35 percent, with 21 percent undecided. Maes is seen unfavorably by 58 percent and favorably by 12 percent with 29 percent undecided.

Tancredo is now taking 56 percent of the Republican vote compared to 24 percent for Maes, who had been pressured by some state Republican leaders to give up the race. Hickenlooper gets 84 percent support from fellow Democrats and leads among independents with 50 percent of that vote.

In all, about a quarter of the Republican vote has swung from Maes to Tancredo, even though Tancredo is seen favorably by only 55 percent of Republicans.

PPP says "the faint ray of hope" for Tancredo is that Hickenlooper so far seems stuck at 47 percent of the vote so "if the trend continues of Maes voters defecting to Tancredo over the next four weeks this has the potential to get a whole lot tighter."

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