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Gallup: Likely Midterm Voters Favor Republicans and Conservatives

1 year ago
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The pool of voters considered likely to go to the polls this November tilts strongly conservative and Republican with moderates and Democrats at their lowest ebb when compared to the last four midterm elections, according to Gallup's analysis of its data collected between Sept. 23 and Oct. 3.

Different pollsters arrive at how they construct their sample of likely voters in different ways, which is a key factor in why the various results of the closely watched generic congressional ballot can offer different snapshots of the direction in which changes are going.

A good example occurred with recent generic ballot results reported by the Washington Post/ABC News and Gallup in which the Post/ABC poll had Republicans ahead by six points, while Gallup produced high and low turnout scenarios in which Republicans led each by double-digits.
VotersBut Gallup's generic ballot is watched particularly closely, given how long they've been doing it and its track record, so the makeup of its sample is instructive.

Voters who identify themselves as conservatives comprise 54 percent of Gallup's sample at this point in the campaign, up from 42 percent in the 2006 midterms. Those saying they are Republicans or leaning Republican total 57 percent, up from 45 percent four years ago.

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By contrast, self-described moderates number 27 percent, down from 37 percent in 2006 and 48 percent in 1994. Those likely voters saying they support Democrats or lean Democratic total 39 percent, down from 52 percent in 2006 when the party recaptured Congress and even below the 44 percent that leaned Democratic in 1994 when the party lost control of Congress.

If "leaners" are removed from the totals, Republicans outperform Democrats among likely voters by 39 percent to 30 percent.

Another calculation that goes into this particular set of numbers is that it is based on Gallup's low turnout scenario of 40 percent. Theoretically, this would favor Republicans if all the tracking of voter enthusiasm in each party this year has been accurate.

Gallup says "that the enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans all year -- as well as the "thought" gap evident in a late August survey -- may well translate into highly disproportionate turnout among Republicans and conservatives on Election Day."

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31 Comments

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wandasgirl

What I don't understand is how so many Republicans and Conservatives can be against Healthcare reform? My brother in law just died and was simply killed by a bad insurance company and a hospital that didn't want to practice medicine but, was simply greedy. He was told that Hernia surgery was "elective". Then when he tried to pay for it on his own he was told that it would cost $400,000. He was told that surgery for a detached retina was "cosmetic". How can keeping one's eyesight be cosmetic? He faithfully paid his premiums, was a businessman who went to work everyday, didn't live off of the government as so many who call themselves conservative assume that anyone who support Healthcare reform does and when he went to a doctor with walking pnuemonia and had to be admitted the hospital basically let him die in ICU. This isn't fiction, this isn't a joke, this is an honest American who did everything that he was supposed to do. How could ANYONE be so cruel as to want to deny someone that played by the rules basic healthcare?

October 11 2010 at 4:15 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
philryanrpr

Again, we have to hear the same lies from republican posters here. "The Democrats have been in control since 2006." Yeah, right. They had a majority of ONE in the Senate and about 10 in the House. Give me a break. THE PRESIDENT until 2009 was BUSH. It's HIS mess that Democrats are digging out of. IT IS HIS $1.3 trillion he stuck Obama with CAUSING the need for the economic stimulus in the first place because he TANKED the economy. But most of the posters are right. Americans are by and large an impatient bunch of immature children. They expected Obama to wave a magic wand and everyone could go backk to what they had been doing in the first place. They were deaf to the comment he made on the campaign trail in 2008 that he would have to spend the first four years of his administration getting this economy on the right track again. But no, impatient voters it appears will give the keys back to the very same people who put us in this mess. INSANE.

October 11 2010 at 12:25 AM Report abuse -3 rate up rate down Reply
copperkettle3

Of course the Republicans are favored. They've capitalized on convincing the voters that the Democrats haven't fixed the mess that the Republicans created quickly enough. So people will re elect the party whose policies over the last 30 years have caused the divide in income and many of the problems that brought the economic crisis to begin with. Those who vote for the Republicans will be electing candidates who promote further divide in income, more trickle down economic that do not trickle down and a prolonged recession.

October 10 2010 at 2:48 PM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
ellingt5

We can only hope! Our country can't survive anymore of this! It is not just entitlement spending, it is the massive wasteful spending on pork projects, turtle underpasses, payments to prisoners and dead people, bailouts and political payback.The Dems have had control of the congress (the checkbook) since 2006. It is time to close their account, cut up their credit card and start over. It is our hard earned money, not theirs. If the Republicans/Conservatives act the same way, they will be kicked out next time! Enough is enough!

October 09 2010 at 11:52 AM Report abuse +15 rate up rate down Reply
warren

If corporations can afford spending hundreds of million of dollars to fund political advertisements and lobbiests then they can add jobs to incease demand but I quess their priorities are to control everything while not having any controls to protect people like most totalitarian countries.

October 09 2010 at 10:58 AM Report abuse -12 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to warren's comment
Kenneth

Your post has merit to a degree. Only problem is government can not tell you how to spend your money and the same applies to any company. I have no problem with anyone or company spending their money or advertising or supporting a lobbyists group. It is when that money is given directly to a politician for their campaign. That is when it clouds their ability to vote properly on legislation. Having a lobbyist bugging me to vote one way or another is easy to deal with you can either agree with them or tell hem to bug off. Once money changes hands to control the vote that is when it should be illegal.

October 09 2010 at 11:25 AM Report abuse +13 rate up rate down Reply
sysaphus71

Mr Gallup, How can you be taken seriously as a pollster when you are only determining now what most of the country has known for months?

October 09 2010 at 10:08 AM Report abuse +12 rate up rate down Reply
rlaura668

Wealthy Politicians who make a living off the working class have convinced the working class that their best interest is their motivation. Guess Again.

October 09 2010 at 9:31 AM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
efleishman

IF THE POLLS ARE CORRECT; JUST A FEW YEARS FROM NOW: NO MORE SOCIAL SECURITY, NO MORE VETERANS BENEFITS, NO MORE PUBLIC EDUCATION, NO MORE HEALTH CARE, NO MORE LABOR UNIONS. IF YOU THINK I'M CRAZY READ EVERY REPUBLICAN AND CONSERVATIVE BLOG. THE ABOVE IS THEIR PLATFORM. THEY DEFINITELY WILL CUT TAXES....BUT THEN YOU WILL HAVE TO PAY CASH ON THE BARREL TO EVERYONE AND IF YOU DON'T HAVE THE CASH...YOU WILL STARVE OR BE SICK AND CORPORATE AMERICA WILL HAVE YOU AT THEIR MERCY. [AND THEY' LL YOU DIE IN THE STREET] THAT IS THE AMERICA THEY WANT.

October 08 2010 at 9:33 PM Report abuse -30 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to efleishman's comment
Kenneth

The problem with your post it describes the wrong party. With what we have now. No jobs and no spending what you state will be true. No body working then their are no taxes to fund all the benefits, with no workers their is no need for unions.

October 08 2010 at 9:51 PM Report abuse +29 rate up rate down Reply
rwed261657

I think you pollsters just pick whichever party that is not in control and then predict that it will be the next one in power.

October 08 2010 at 9:00 PM Report abuse -22 rate up rate down Reply
Tom

And this poll would surprise anyone because....?

October 08 2010 at 5:26 PM Report abuse +20 rate up rate down Reply

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