Florida Election: Pragmatism on Both Sides Undermines Party Loyalty
Mark I. Pinsky
Contributor
Posted:
10/10/10
ORLANDO, Florida -- Traditional party loyalty is being put to the test in Florida this year, with few willing to predict the scrambled result.
First Marco Rubio, the slick, dark-haired, ultra-conservative former speaker of the state House of Representatives, drove moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Crist from their party's U.S. Senate primary with a surge of support from Tea Party supporters. Then Crist, whose snow white hair and an unnatural tan make him look like he's already a senator, announced that he would run as an independent, hoping to woo moderate Republicans and Democrats -- who were having second thoughts about their candidate, four-term Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek.
In the post-2008 euphoria, Meek was apparently seized with the unlikely notion that he could be the next, post-racial Barack Obama. He gave up the safe, South Florida Congressional seat willed to him by his mother, longtime Rep. Carrie Meek, to run for the U.S. Senate. He managed to overcome billionaire newcomer Jeff Greene, who spent $26 million of his own money, in a bruising primary that left Meek damaged from a barrage of negative commercials highlighting his undistinguished career in Congress, and his campaign financially depleted. Since then, he has desperately been trying to rally his progressive base in South Florida, and African-Americans statewide.
With all this turmoil, some savvy, well-heeled Democrats, carefully monitoring the early polls, began hedging their bets by making contributions to the Crist campaign. John Morgan, an Orlando trial lawyer and longtime liberal Democratic donor, held a fundraiser for Crist. Since declaring as an independent, Crist has frantically courted groups like the state's teachers' union, gays (reversing his longtime opposition to gay adoption, announcing his support for civil unions and his opposition to the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy) and abortion rights supporters.
In late September, Crist was endorsed by former Democratic Rep. Robert Wexler, author of "Fire Breathing Liberal," who once served with the governor in the Florida Legislature. Wexler made a series of campaign appearances with Crist at a synagogue and condo near his old, heavily Jewish district in South Florida, further eroding Meek's declining support in the polls.
Republicans were taking no chances even as Rubio's poll numbers began to rise. In early October, the American Crossroads PAC spent nearly $250,000 on pro-Rubio mailings that were sent to absentee voters, according to the Federal Elections Commission. The Rubio campaign itself now claims to have $5 million in hand, in addition to the backing from corporate millionaires and billionaires who contribute through "super-PACs" and similar groups legalized by the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. The names of the contributors to many of these groups have yet to be disclosed.
Poll: Rubio Appears to Be Headed for Victory in Florida Senate Race
Crist is fighting back. After running a series of nice-guy ads, dressed in an open collar, blue Oxford shirt, the governor finally began airing tough, negative commercials taking dead aim at Rubio's special interest bills in the Legislature – all of which Crist vetoed.
Seeking to stave off Crist inroads among Democrats, Meek countered with negative ads, running clips of the governor declaring himself an anti-abortion, conservative Republican. Still, if, in the closing weeks of the campaign, Meek falls and stays below 20 percent, as he is now, and Crist closes to within 10 points of Rubio, more white Democrats may join independents in casting a strategic vote for the governor.
Those Democrats hope that if Crist can keep Rubio out of the Senate, he could be induced – perhaps with a vacant subcommittee chairmanship – to caucus with the Democrats and help preserve their precarious majority. For their part, Meek backers insist that he is not a spoiler who will ensure a Rubio victory. At least Meek will bring out the Democratic base and, even in defeat, draw support for other Democrats on the ticket, his supporters say.
Florida Democrats are not alone when it comes to switching sides, or thinking about it.
In the governor's race, Republicans were outraged when former HCA Chairman Rick Scott, forced out of his post after the giant health care company he led accepted responsibility for massive Medicare fraud, won the GOP nomination – at the cost of $50 million – over Bill McCollum, the state attorney general and a former congressman. Scott's company paid $1.7 billion in fines and penalties to the federal government, the largest in history. According to his financial disclosure form, Scott's declared net worth is $219 million.
McCollum, his political career in ruins as a result of Scott's commercials, has yet to endorse his primary opponent. Influential former GOP Rep. Lou Frey announced on an Orlando public radio station that he was so embarrassed by Scott that he intended to vote for the Democratic nominee, Alex Sink, a former banker now serving as Florida's chief financial officer. The same John Morgan who held a fundraiser for Charlie Crist held a separate fundraiser for Sink, which drew a number of regular Republican stalwarts, concerned that if Scott is elected he will owe them nothing.
Control of the governor's mansion in Tallahassee is critical, both because Florida is a swing state as well because of the coming congressional reapportionment. Yet despite the gift of the brutal Scott-McCollum primary, Sink has so far been running a limp, lackluster, "I'm not Obama" campaign, and is being pummeled by negative ads, both independent and from the Scott campaign.
In some congressional races, party loyalty is also being challenged. In Central Florida's closely watched 8th District race where first-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson is fighting to hang onto centrist and conservative members of his own party who may find the outspoken progressive temperamentally and ideologically out of step with them. Recent polls suggest this may be a losing effort.
Yet at the same time, Grayson's Republican challenger, former state house leader Daniel Webster is himself struggling to keep Republicans from voting for Peg Dunmire, the independent Tea Party candidate on the ballot. Webster has refused to debate Grayson if Dunmire participates.
Even at the local level, the party lines are loosening. In the ostensibly non-partisan runoff for Orange County mayor, which includes the city of Orlando, centrist Democrat Bill Segal is facing conservative Republican Theresa Jacobs. Both have served on the county commission. Segal has the support of business leaders, organized labor and the gay community, but because he is a developer, some anti-growth Democrats – including some women – are supporting Jacobs. Yet because Jacobs is so vociferously anti-gay, some moderate, anti-development Republicans will probably support Segal.
In their prime time, televised debate here Oct. 6, Crist, Meek and Rubio hit their predictable talking points. Crist worked hard to place himself in the ideological center between Democrat Meek sitting on his "extreme left" and Republican Rubio on the "extreme right." Rubio, Crist said several times, is a prisoner of the Tea Party, despite Rubio's recent efforts to distance himself from those supporters.
The only thing certain about the Nov. 2 elections in Florida is that the wait in lines at the polls may be long as voters jump from party to party to find their favorites.
First Marco Rubio, the slick, dark-haired, ultra-conservative former speaker of the state House of Representatives, drove moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Crist from their party's U.S. Senate primary with a surge of support from Tea Party supporters. Then Crist, whose snow white hair and an unnatural tan make him look like he's already a senator, announced that he would run as an independent, hoping to woo moderate Republicans and Democrats -- who were having second thoughts about their candidate, four-term Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek.
In the post-2008 euphoria, Meek was apparently seized with the unlikely notion that he could be the next, post-racial Barack Obama. He gave up the safe, South Florida Congressional seat willed to him by his mother, longtime Rep. Carrie Meek, to run for the U.S. Senate. He managed to overcome billionaire newcomer Jeff Greene, who spent $26 million of his own money, in a bruising primary that left Meek damaged from a barrage of negative commercials highlighting his undistinguished career in Congress, and his campaign financially depleted. Since then, he has desperately been trying to rally his progressive base in South Florida, and African-Americans statewide.
With all this turmoil, some savvy, well-heeled Democrats, carefully monitoring the early polls, began hedging their bets by making contributions to the Crist campaign. John Morgan, an Orlando trial lawyer and longtime liberal Democratic donor, held a fundraiser for Crist. Since declaring as an independent, Crist has frantically courted groups like the state's teachers' union, gays (reversing his longtime opposition to gay adoption, announcing his support for civil unions and his opposition to the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy) and abortion rights supporters.
In late September, Crist was endorsed by former Democratic Rep. Robert Wexler, author of "Fire Breathing Liberal," who once served with the governor in the Florida Legislature. Wexler made a series of campaign appearances with Crist at a synagogue and condo near his old, heavily Jewish district in South Florida, further eroding Meek's declining support in the polls.
Republicans were taking no chances even as Rubio's poll numbers began to rise. In early October, the American Crossroads PAC spent nearly $250,000 on pro-Rubio mailings that were sent to absentee voters, according to the Federal Elections Commission. The Rubio campaign itself now claims to have $5 million in hand, in addition to the backing from corporate millionaires and billionaires who contribute through "super-PACs" and similar groups legalized by the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. The names of the contributors to many of these groups have yet to be disclosed.
Poll: Rubio Appears to Be Headed for Victory in Florida Senate Race
Crist is fighting back. After running a series of nice-guy ads, dressed in an open collar, blue Oxford shirt, the governor finally began airing tough, negative commercials taking dead aim at Rubio's special interest bills in the Legislature – all of which Crist vetoed.
Seeking to stave off Crist inroads among Democrats, Meek countered with negative ads, running clips of the governor declaring himself an anti-abortion, conservative Republican. Still, if, in the closing weeks of the campaign, Meek falls and stays below 20 percent, as he is now, and Crist closes to within 10 points of Rubio, more white Democrats may join independents in casting a strategic vote for the governor.
Those Democrats hope that if Crist can keep Rubio out of the Senate, he could be induced – perhaps with a vacant subcommittee chairmanship – to caucus with the Democrats and help preserve their precarious majority. For their part, Meek backers insist that he is not a spoiler who will ensure a Rubio victory. At least Meek will bring out the Democratic base and, even in defeat, draw support for other Democrats on the ticket, his supporters say.
Florida Democrats are not alone when it comes to switching sides, or thinking about it.
In the governor's race, Republicans were outraged when former HCA Chairman Rick Scott, forced out of his post after the giant health care company he led accepted responsibility for massive Medicare fraud, won the GOP nomination – at the cost of $50 million – over Bill McCollum, the state attorney general and a former congressman. Scott's company paid $1.7 billion in fines and penalties to the federal government, the largest in history. According to his financial disclosure form, Scott's declared net worth is $219 million.
McCollum, his political career in ruins as a result of Scott's commercials, has yet to endorse his primary opponent. Influential former GOP Rep. Lou Frey announced on an Orlando public radio station that he was so embarrassed by Scott that he intended to vote for the Democratic nominee, Alex Sink, a former banker now serving as Florida's chief financial officer. The same John Morgan who held a fundraiser for Charlie Crist held a separate fundraiser for Sink, which drew a number of regular Republican stalwarts, concerned that if Scott is elected he will owe them nothing.
Control of the governor's mansion in Tallahassee is critical, both because Florida is a swing state as well because of the coming congressional reapportionment. Yet despite the gift of the brutal Scott-McCollum primary, Sink has so far been running a limp, lackluster, "I'm not Obama" campaign, and is being pummeled by negative ads, both independent and from the Scott campaign.
In some congressional races, party loyalty is also being challenged. In Central Florida's closely watched 8th District race where first-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson is fighting to hang onto centrist and conservative members of his own party who may find the outspoken progressive temperamentally and ideologically out of step with them. Recent polls suggest this may be a losing effort.
Yet at the same time, Grayson's Republican challenger, former state house leader Daniel Webster is himself struggling to keep Republicans from voting for Peg Dunmire, the independent Tea Party candidate on the ballot. Webster has refused to debate Grayson if Dunmire participates.
Even at the local level, the party lines are loosening. In the ostensibly non-partisan runoff for Orange County mayor, which includes the city of Orlando, centrist Democrat Bill Segal is facing conservative Republican Theresa Jacobs. Both have served on the county commission. Segal has the support of business leaders, organized labor and the gay community, but because he is a developer, some anti-growth Democrats – including some women – are supporting Jacobs. Yet because Jacobs is so vociferously anti-gay, some moderate, anti-development Republicans will probably support Segal.
In their prime time, televised debate here Oct. 6, Crist, Meek and Rubio hit their predictable talking points. Crist worked hard to place himself in the ideological center between Democrat Meek sitting on his "extreme left" and Republican Rubio on the "extreme right." Rubio, Crist said several times, is a prisoner of the Tea Party, despite Rubio's recent efforts to distance himself from those supporters.
The only thing certain about the Nov. 2 elections in Florida is that the wait in lines at the polls may be long as voters jump from party to party to find their favorites.