The Senate and Governor Races: Rounding Up the Polls in Twelve States

Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research came out Tuesday with its weekly serving of Senate and gubernatorial polls in five states. But there was a wave of other new polls and, together, they cover contests in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Washington and Wisconsin.

Unless otherwise specified, the polls cited below are from Fox. Those were all conducted Oct. 9 and had a margin of error of 3 points. To see the Fox/Pulse Opinion polls, click on the names of the states. You can find the surveys by pollsters in other states at the bottom of this post.

Connecticut

Democrat Richard Blumenthal is leading Republican Linda McMahon by 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Last week, Blumenthal led by 52 percent to 42 percent.

McMahon is seen unfavorably by 48 percent and favorably by 44 percent with 7 percent not sure, an improvement over last week when she was seen unfavorably by 51 percent to 40 percent. Blumenthal is seen favorably by 53 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent with 6 percent not sure, a somewhat less positive showing than last week when he was seen favorably by 55 percent to 37 percent.

Fifty-two percent say they are somewhat or very concerned about Blumenthal's misleading statements about his military service while 48 percent are not very or at all concerned. Fifty-one percent are not very or at all concerned about McMahon's work with World Wrestling Entertainment while 49 percent are. Voters divide about equally on both when asked whether they think Blumenthal and McMahon are honest and trustworthy.

In the governor's race, Democrat Dan Malloy leads Republican Tom Foley 45 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring another candidate and 10 percent not sure. That's a drop of 2 points in support for Malloy since last week.

Delaware

Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican 54 percent to 38 percent in the Senate race with 3 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. This is little changed since last week.

O'Donnell is seen unfavorably by 58 percent of voters and favorably by 33 percent with 7 percent not sure. Coons is seen favorably by 50 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent with 10 percent not sure.

While O'Donnell has made a campaign tag line of "I'm you," 57 percent say they do not think she is in touch with people like themselves while 33 percent do, with 10 percent not sure. Forty-four percent do think Coons is in touch with people like themselves while 41 percent do not, with 15 percent not sure.

Forty-one percent say their vote for Senate will be a message of opposition to Obama administration policies while 36 percent say it will be a vote of support, with 20 percent saying it will not be a factor.

A Monmouth University poll conducted Oct. 8-11 has Coons ahead 57 percent to 38 percent with 5 percent undecided, Fifty-seven percent say O'Donnell is unqualified to be a senator.

Nevada

The Senate race between Democrat Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle is the same old story -- both candidates within the margin of error of each other as they have been for week. Angle leads 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else or no one. Seven percent of Angle voters say they could change their minds
compared to 3 percent for Reid.

Forty-nine percent say their vote in the Senate race will be meant to express opposition to Obama administration policies while 33 percent say it is a show of support, with 17 percent saying it is not a factor. Thirty-eight percent of Angle supporters say their vote is also mainly against Reid, while 30 percent of Reid backers say their primary reason is opposition to Angle.

Fifty-eight percent of voters see Angle unfavorably while 36 percent see her favorably, with 6 percent not sure. Fifty-six percent see Reid unfavorably while 42 percent regard him favorably, with 2 percent unsure.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 7-9 has Reid ahead by 47 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent preferring other or none of the candidates and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 points.

Ohio

Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 52 percent to 35 percent in the Senate race with 3 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 11 has Portman ahead by 57 percent to 34 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 7 percent undecided.

In the governor's race, Fox has Republican John Kasich leading Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland 47 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else with 9 percent undecided. That's a one point change in Kasich's favor since
last week.

Washington

This is another Senate race in which neither candidate has been able to break out. Republican Dino Rossi is leading three-term incumbent Patty Murray by 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent preferring some other choice.

Neither Murray or Rossi can boast great favorability numbers. Forty-eight percent see Murray unfavorably compared to 45 percent who see her favorably, with 6 percent not sure. Forty-nine percent regard Rossi unfavorably while 43 percent see him favorably, with 8 percent not sure.

Forty-five percent say their vote for senator will be meant to express opposition to Obama administration policies while 32 percent say it will be to support them, with 17 percent saying it's not a factor. In both the cases of Rossi and Murray, about 6 in 10 of their supporters are casting their votes for them rather than against the opponent.

In other polling:

Alaska: Surprise Republican nominee Joe Miller holds a statistically-insignificant 35 percent to 33 percent over Lisa Murkowski, who is running as a write-in candidate after losing the GOP Senate primary. Democrat Scott McAdams gets 26 percent and 4 percent are undecided. In this poll, voters were asked to choose among Miller, McAdams and "someone else," and that result was a tie at 35 percent each between Miller and "someone else," with McAdams at 26 percent. When the poll asked voters to identify who they had in mind as someone else, 95 percent chose Murkowski, 3 percent opted for one of two other candidates and 2 percent said they would write in a choice other than those. That was then factored into the composite 35 percent to 33 percent result between Miller and Murkowski. (Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling, Oct. 9-10).

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio leads independent Charlie Crist by 44 percent to 33 percent with Democrat Kendrick Meek drawing 21 percent. Three percent are undecided. Meek has denied rumors he might drop out rather than compete with Crist for Democratic votes, but in hypothetical two-way match-ups, Rubio and Crist would be in a tie against each other at 46 percent each, while Rubio would lead Meek 48 percent to 41 percent. The remainder in each case are undecided. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 9-10).

Georgia: Republican Nathan deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes by 49 percent to 41 percent in the race for governor, with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 10)

Illinois: Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads Republican Mark Kirk in the Senate race by 44 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, 7 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. In Rasmussen's Oct. 4 poll, Kirk led 45 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 11).

Maine: Republican Paul LePage is leading Democrat Libby Mitchell in the race for governor by a bare 30 percent to 29 percent with 11 percent for Eliot Cutler, 6 percent for other candidates and 24 percent undecided. That's within the poll's margin of error. LePage is a businessman and mayor of Waterville, Mitchell is president of the state Senate and Cutler is a former Carter administration official running as an independent. (Pine Tree Politics/Maine Center for Public Opinion, Oct. 4-7).

New Hampshire: Democratic Gov. John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen, the state's former health commissioner, by 53 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. In mid-September, Lynch had a statistically-insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead. The margin of error is 4 points. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 10)

Wisconsin: Republican Ron Johnson leads three-term Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race by 51 percent to 44 percent. (Reuters/Ipsos, Oct. 8-11). Earlier, we separately posted a Rasmussen Reports survey showing Johnson ahead by 52 percent to 45 percent.