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Can Democrats Pull Off a 'Dewey Defeats Truman' Feat? Not Likely, Polls Say

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Facing grim news in one major national poll after another, some Democrats may be hoping for a "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment. That was the headline in 150,000 copies of the Chicago Daily Tribune on election night in 1948 after a campaign in which a series of polls showed New York's Republican governor, Tom Dewey, way ahead of incumbent President Harry Truman.

Now, the Pew Research Center joins the queue of major surveys showing the Republicans headed for a big day on Nov. 2. While the unexpected could happen in a year of surprises, it is a lot less likely that today's pollsters are repeating the mistake that Gallup made 62 years ago when it quit doing surveys two weeks before the election even though 14 percent of voters were still undecided.

Harry TrumanThe Pew poll, conducted Oct. 13-18, has Republicans leading on the generic congressional ballot by 50 percent to 40 percent. In September's survey, the lead had been 50 percent to 43 percent.

Two other polls this week -- by the Associated Press/GfK and Wall Street Journal/NBC News -- gave the Republicans a 50 percent to 43 percent advantage.

The Pew survey also found that "Republicans hold a 12-point edge among likely voters in the most competitive districts in the nation, and have a bigger lead in safe Republican districts (27 points) than Democrats have in safe Democratic districts (10 points)."

Pew said 4 percent of those surveyed had already voted and another 23 percent said they would do so before Election Day. The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll had a similar result, saying 5 percent had already cast absentee ballots or voted, with another 20 percent intending to do so before Election Day.

Democrats have been counting on the kind of get-'em-to-the-polls efforts that helped them in the last two elections, but Pew said, "while the parties' voter mobilization efforts are well underway at this stage of the campaign, there is no indication that Democrats are making more headway on these efforts than are Republicans."

The campaign has certainly made itself felt in the nation's living rooms. Eight-eight percent of voters say they have seen or heard campaign commercials, and 56 percent say they have seen a lot of them.

But despite the recent assault by President Obama and leading Democrats on anonymous campaign money and third-party groups that pay for a lot of the ads, Americans are split on how important it is to know who is behind them. Fifty percent say it doesn't matter much, while 49 percent says it does.

If it's any consolation for those Democrats dismayed by all these polls, at least things don't look as dark as this headline from The Onion: "Democrats Could Lose Up To 8,000 Seats In Upcoming Midterm Election"

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61 Comments

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monseigneurdev

An All-Democrat controlled Government is destroying our future...and ironically their own stated agenda (What's their latest view from the solitary-filled seat on the Gulf-Stream V ?). Things haven't gotten better after $$$Trillions spent because the Democrat-controlled government is looking out for themselves and their friends. Billions will be spent on getting votes and a tiny piece of that billion would help out increasing poverty, unemployment....atleast for publicity. Don't vote for Democrats if things haven't gotten better for YOU...2 Years of an All-Democrat controlled government and $4 Trillion is enough. Where are the results?

October 23 2010 at 5:36 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to monseigneurdev's comment
Kenneth

An all democratic congress has never been good for business, check history businesses do not expand or add labor, but during a mixed or republican government you read about business expansion, business mergers this is growth.companies will actually buy a business that is struggling for two reasons and growth and income potential to their existing business.Look at our countries present situation all the money this government has spent to get things moving as ended with little or no results.

October 25 2010 at 12:25 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
chuckied543

if republicans win the elections in nov its going to be george bush all over so kiss your jobs goodbye have people forgotton who got us in this mess the republicans wise up people

October 23 2010 at 11:40 AM Report abuse -7 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to chuckied543's comment
Huggy

The 2 years that George Bush had a republican congress ,there were more jobs with more people working and a better standard of living was had by all. It was when Democrats took over congress that things went the way they did. You want to blame somebody, blame Pelosi reid and barney frank. Btw it was clinton that signed NAFTA that caused a lot of jobs to leave our country.

October 26 2010 at 12:31 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
vobox3343

I just realized something, the Republicans really do feel the Democrats to be superior intellectually (subconciously). How else would one believe that what couldn't be accomplished in eight years could be turned around in two? It has never happened before. I guess the thing to do would be to really just ignore all of the fuss and vote for the "smart" people.

October 22 2010 at 11:33 AM Report abuse -13 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to vobox3343's comment
Kenneth

If they were superior intellectually they would be able to handle criticism and be willing to admit to mistakes and take the proper actions. intellectuals do not resort to name calling that would be beneath them.Your earlier post of Obama and his Veto pen is exactly what is needed. It will get government out of the way of the people and business so this mess can get cleaned up. The Veto pen will also make sure he is a one term president. People will come to realize what do we need him for all he does is veto everything and fly allover the country and world on our dime. It is called self destruct 101.

October 23 2010 at 8:44 AM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
exitar01

I think that it may happen. I think that the Tea Party started way too soon. everything they had was spent so early that now the candidates who won, thanks to the TP, are now under scrutiny by the press, O'Donnell, Miller, Paul are all in the press' sites. Now the democrats have pulled out the big guns, Clinton, the Obama's, John Stewart's march for Sanity in DC 3 days from the election - that maybe as large as Beck's, some think larger considering Stewart/Colbert are by far the most popular psuedo-pundit news anchors on tv. The Dewey reference is right on though. The reliance on polling data and historical precidence to predict the winners failed then and may do so know. Case in point - in Arizona is so red and conservative, the press and tv, that is has not even mentioned that the hispanics have increased thier voting rolls by 40%! Most are young and angry over SB1070 and don't have home phones but cell phones. No polling center calls cell phones.

October 22 2010 at 9:53 AM Report abuse -4 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to exitar01's comment
Huggy

Clinton is a big gun? If you think someone that is a womanizer a liar and a cheat Impeached from presidency and oh did we ever get that furniture back in the whitehouse that he stole. Gosh if you consider people like that a big gun, I would hate to know what you would think of a Rockafeller.

October 26 2010 at 12:42 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
Paul MacLeod

when any voting American says that campaign money source doesn't matter, that is when we know that we have nearly lost our way in this country.. we are a country of laws.. we must have each and every candidate running for office obeying these laws.. we cannot afford to have foreign influence in domestic elections.. the result of that has bee seen already as we know Obammer has vast amounts of campaign money from Arab countries and his foreign policies have reflected that owing mentality.. this is dead wrong as it affects all of us. yes I think the American people to some degree have lost their way.. God has left the building , but only because we have forced Him out.. not us as in you and me. but our gov't and our leaders, our judicial and special interests groups.. and even our own churches.. this is a very very serious time , your vote counts.. so go vote in Nov. Vote to take back our country.. stop this crazyness.. let's invite God back into our schools, Gov't, churches and all our homes.. and yes let's be tolerant but vigilant at the same time.. stupid is not a good thing at this point.. protect your family and protest yourself.. be aware of your world.. go vote and make a difference

October 22 2010 at 6:49 AM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
breezy62253

This shouldn't even be a topic of conversation. They should be sitting back and not having to spend the outrageous amounts of money they are throwing into these races. In my State, PA, things are much closer than they should be. My Republican candidates are weak, wealthy mouthpieces for Wall St. or the Mob. Repub Party knew many would vote for Satan before a Dem and that's how we got these! Now they're on defense instead of offense!

October 22 2010 at 6:29 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to breezy62253's comment
afritilla

i guess you missed the news this morning that the single biggest independent advertiser is a ... union ? ok, i guess it does qualify as a big corporate interest...

October 22 2010 at 3:24 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
goodharvest1852

How anyone of any party affiliation could vote for anyone who supports the Obama-Reid-Polosi progressive democratic agenda is mind-boggling - our Founders are doing a collective 'turn over in their graves' - does anyone read history and discern what is going on here? Their Socialistic Utopian wordview DOES NOT WORK period. There is no honesty and personal'fiscial responsibility but a grab for power and control via big gov't period. JUst for starters - look at the the "wonderful" liberal lead public school system or how "efficient" the post office runs or how they are seeking to silence anyone who does not agree and/or exposes their America hating agenda...even a liberal leaning Juan Williams...when Joy B. on the view said untrue hateful things about Christianity...that gets a pass...notice how the dems who cannot run on the things they voted for won't talk about the issues but resort to character assination...something smells people...wake up...for starters...America as we know it...America to be the world's leader...must have limited gov't...term limits...cut spending...the fair tax system...strong nat'l defense...balanced budget...if you want to be like western Europe go live in France...hows that working out???

October 22 2010 at 6:02 AM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
geokaz

You democrat supporters amuse me. The only thing I've heard democrats do so far isn't telling us their platform, but tearing down Republicans. I haven't heard one Democrat bragging how he/she voted for Obamacare, or the failed Stimulus. If it was so great, why don't they take credit? In fact, some Democrats are now pleading with their constituents to vote for them so they can "fix" the Health Care bill and "make it right". How pathetic is that? Why weren't they concerned when they were forcing this socialis garbage down our throats? Like it or not, they brought this upon themselves and have no one to blame BUT themselves.

October 22 2010 at 3:24 AM Report abuse +7 rate up rate down Reply
Clue

The democraps can always count on the dead vote. And of course the illegal vote as well. Stuff a few ballot boxes recount the vote a few dozen times, throw out valid ballots and they just might have a chance!!! Then, tie up the courts with their lawsuits. That's why Republicans needs to win by at least 7 or 8 percentage points, just to cover the built-in coruption from the democraps. :o)

October 22 2010 at 3:16 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
okitori

To Vette330--Thank you for enlightening Punster of the facts. It's unbelievable that some people are so uninformed. It's like Jay Leno & his Jaywalking. Most people don't even realize that the Dems were in control of the House & Senate in 2006 (you know when no one thought it was important to regulate Fannie & Freddie.) One hears complaints about Glenn Beck but if some of these people listen to his research and statements made by some of the radicals surrounding Obama (AND STATEMENTS IN THEIR OWN WORDS REGARDING THEIR IDEAS OF TRANSFORMING THIS COUNTRY) it is eyeopening. I don't know why we have to pay for Obama's czars--never been elected but who advises Obama. Why do we need Congress if these czars are telling Obama what to do.

October 22 2010 at 2:45 AM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply

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