Senate and Governor Polls: Democrats May Lose Two in Ohio, Win Two in California

Our latest roundup of polls on key governor and Senate races updates Arizona, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Ohio has always been a pivotal state, especially in presidential election years, and is considered a bellwether for which way the political trends are going. Ohio voters have been staggering under the economic downturn which has hit their state especially hard. President Obama's ratings there have sagged badly. Democrats are in danger of losing both the races for governor and Senate. That would mean a statehouse pickup for the Republicans if John Kasich beats incumbent Ted Strickland, and holding on to the Senate seat that was left open by the GOP's George Voinovich.

Strickland still has a fighting chance, according to the latest polls. A victory in the Senate race by Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher would, at this point, be nothing short of a political miracle.

In some of the other most notable surveys that came out Tuesday:

-- The polls are starting to be pretty consistent in giving Democrat Jerry Brown a lead in the California governor's race over Republican Meg Whitman, and there are signs that three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer may be taking command of her re-election race.

-- Democrat Jack Conway's campaign ad saying that Rand Paul worshipped a deity named "Aqua Buddha" during his college days appears to have backfired, according to a Public Policy Polling survey on the Kentucky Senate race.

-- Democrat Richard Blumenthal's comfortable lead over Republican Linda McMahon is holding up in the Connecticut Senate race, but the gubernatorial race between Democrat Dan Malloy and Republican Tom Foley remains close.

-- Different polls are telling different stories about the West Virginia Senate contest between Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese. The latest poll has Raese ahead, although by a statistically insignificant margin, while a poll released Monday showed Manchin gaining strength.

-- The closely watched Nevada race between Sharron Angle and Harry Reid continues to be close.

-- Republican newcomer Ron Johnson's support in his Wisconsin race against three-term Democrat Sen. Russ Feingold has now been above 50 percent in four straight Rasmussen Reports polls.

-- Republican Susana Martinez is looking like she has a good shot to recapture the New Mexico governor's seat, now held by Democrat Bill Richardson.

-- A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak tied in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

You can find all the details and links to the polls under the state headings below.

Check back here for more updates throughout the day.

Alaska

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski is tied with Joe Miller, who beat her for the GOP senate nomination, at 37 percent each with Democrat Scott McAdams at 23 percent, with 2 percent undecided. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 15-19).

Arizona

Republican incumbent Jan Brewer is leading Democrat Terry Goddard, the state's attorney general, in the governor's race by 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 23-24.

The same poll shows Sen. John McCain leading Democrat Rodney Glassman by 56 percent to 38 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

Arkansas

POLLS RELEASED LAST WEEK:

Republican John Boozman leads Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the Senate race by 55 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided and the remainder preferring other candidates. (Mason-Dixon Research, Oct. 15-19)

Boozman leads Lincoln by 55 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent liking neither and 2 percent undecided. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 15-19).

California

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 21-23 has Democrat Jerry Brown running ahead of Meg Whitman in the governor's race by 53 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided, and Democrat Barbara Boxer ahead of Republican Carly Fiorina in the Senate race by 52 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points. PPP says, "The biggest reason Boxer is maintaining her margin and Brown is expanding his is that both have now unified their party more than the Republicans have theirs...Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina never showed the kind of appeal to Democrats they would have needed to win in California."

A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 21-24 shows Brown holding a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Whitman, with 5 percent supporting other candidates and 3 percent undecided.

The same poll shows Boxer leading Fiorina by 52 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for other candidates and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error for both polls is 4 points.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 had Brown leading Whitman by 50 percent to 41 percent in the governor's race with 6 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, Brown's lead was 48 percent to 43 percent. Most voters in the survey see both Brown and Whitman negatively, but Whitman more so. Fifty-four percent have an unfavorably view of her compared to 39 percent who view her favorably with the rest undecided or saying they never heard of her. Fifty-percent see Brown unfavorably while 46 percent see him favorably with 5 percent not sure.

In the Senate race, Fox has Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 48 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, Boxer led by 48 percent to 44 percent. Seven percent of Boxer supporters say they could change their minds compared to 4 percent for Fiorina. Fifty percent disapprove of the job Boxer is doing as senator compared to 41 percent who approve, with 9 percent undecided.

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Brown has jumped to a 52 percent to 39 percent lead over Whitman in California's governor. The poll showed Whitman suffering from defections on the part of women, Latinos and nonpartisan voters. A big turning point in the campaign was the revelation in late September by Whitman's former housekeeper for nine years, Nicandra Diaz Santillan, that she had been in the country illegally. Whitman found herself whipsawed between those voters for whom Diaz Santillan's employment ran counter to anti-illegal immigration sentiment and those who felt Whitman had treated her callously in firing her. Brown's support among likely Latino voters has grown from 20 points to 34 points. (Los Angeles Times/USC poll, Oct. 13-20).

Boxer leads Fiorina by 50 percent to 42 percent. In the September poll, her lead had been 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 3.2 points. (Los Angeles Times/USC poll, Oct. 13-20).

Colorado

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democrat John Hickenlooper is hanging on to a 47 percent to 44 percent lead over American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, with Republican Dan Maes at 5 percent and 4 percent undecided. The collapse of party support for the GOP nominee has meant that Tancredo, a former Republican congressman, has been able to garner 73 percent of the Republican vote, effectively turning what started as a three-way race into a two-way match-up that is more competitive. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 21-23).

Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck are tied at 47 percent each in the Senate race, with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.4 points. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 21-23).

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Bennet and Buck are tied at 47 percent each in the Senate race. Five percent support another candidate and 1 percent is undecided. In the last poll, Buck had led 48 percent to 43 percent. (SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-21).

In the governor's race, Hickenlooper leads Tancredo by 49 percent to 39 percent with Republican Dan Maes at 9 percent. He is taking 65 percent of the Republican vote in this poll. (SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-21).

Connecticut

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Democrat Richard Blumenthal is holding on to a comfortable lead over Republican Linda McMahon in their race to fill the Senate seat left open by the retirement of Christopher Dodd, but Democrat Dan Malloy is in a much closer contest in his gubernatorial bid against Republican Tom Foley, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24.

Blumenthal, the state's attorney general, leads McMahon, the former head of World Wrestling Entertainment, by 54 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 points. That's about the same margin Blumenthal had two weeks ago. Only 6 percent of voters in each camp say they may yet change their minds. As has been the case in most every poll on this race, Blumenthal is seen favorably by a wide margin, while McMahon is viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters -- which some have seen as a backlash against her well-funded campaign of negative TV ads and direct mail.

"Linda McMahon has tried to raise Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's negatives over the last several weeks, but she hasn't been successful," said Quinnipiac's Douglas Schwartz. "He remains popular, but McMahon's own negatives have risen above 50 percent. One has to wonder if over the last few weeks McMahon would have been better off spending more of her millions on positive ads."

In the governor's race, Malloy, the mayor of Stamford, leads Foley, a businessman and former ambassador to Ireland, by 48 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided in the Quinnipiac poll. The margin of error is 3.7 points. In mid-October, Malloy had led by 49 percent to 42 percent, and in late September by 45 percent to 42 percent. There's room for a shift in this race because 12 percent of Malloy voters say they could change their minds and the same is the case for 10 percent of Foley backers.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Blumenthal out in front by 53 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24 has Malloy leading by a smaller margin, 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

The Oct. 23 Fox News poll put Malloy ahead of Foley by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Blumenthal leads McMahon by 56 percent to 43 percent in the Senate race with 2 percent undecided or preferring some other candidate. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 24)

Florida

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Republican Marco Rubio appears to be steaming towards victory in the Florida Senate race, leading independent Charlie Crist by 41 percent to 26 percent with 20 percent for Democrat Kendrick Meek. Julia Clark, a pollster for Ipsos which conducted the survey, said "There doesn't seem to be much doubt in our minds that Rubio will take the election." ( St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll,Oct. 15-19).

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Rick Scott is leading Democrat Alex Sink by 44 percent to 41 percent in the race for governor. The stories on this poll did not give the percentage of undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 points. (St. Petersburg Times, Miami Herald, Bay News 9, Oct. 15-19).

Scott and Sink are tied at 45 percent each in their race for governor, with 8 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. (Sunshine State News Poll, Oct. 21)

Scott leads Sink in the race for governor by 48 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. This is the widest gap between the two in six months of match-ups by this pollster. Last week Scott led 50 percent to 47 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 18).

Georgia

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes 49 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian John Mondes, 5 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. Deal slipped backed from the 50 percent mark he had hit in an Oct. 6 poll. If the winner doesn't notch 50 percent, it forces a run-off. Deal is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Barnes is seen unfavorably 53 percent compared to 40 percent who see him favorably, with 6 percent not sure. Deal has a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters.

A WSB-TV/InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 24 has Deal leading Barnes by 47 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent for Monds and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2 points.

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Deal leads Barnes in the governor's race by 49 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent for Monds, with 3 percent undecided. Both Deal, until recently a congressman, and Barnes, a former one-term governor, get the same high level of support from their respective parties (Republicans are weighted at 42 percent of the sample and Democrats at 34 percent), but Deal leads among independents (20 percent of the sample) by 44 percent to 27 percent with Monds getting 25 percent with 4 percent undecided. Deal needs to hit 50 percent to avoid a runoff. The margin of error is 4.1 points. (SurveyUSA, Oct. 21-24).

Hawaii

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democrat Neil Abercrombie is leading Republican James "Duke" Aiona in the governor's race by 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. The outgoing governor is Republican Linda Lingle. (Honolulu Star Advertiser, Oct. 12-19).

Illinois

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the race for governor by 43 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for independent Scott Lee Cohen, 4 percent for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, 2 percent for Libertarian Lex Green and 6 percent undecided, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN poll conducted Oct. 18-22. The margin of error is 3.7 points. In the last poll about a month ago, Quinn had 39 percent to Brady's 38 percent.

The Tribune reports, "Much of Brady's advance may be due to a heavy dose of negative TV advertising against Quinn, largely funded through donations by the Republican Governors Association. Quinn has also aired his share of attack ads at Brady, but is outmatched in the money game."

One question is the impact of Cohen's small but noticeable amount of support in the race. Cohen had won the nomination to run as the Democrat's lieutenant governor candidate but dropped out after a series of damaging disclosures. He has spent almost $6 million of his own money on the race, the Tribune reports.

Almost a third of voters don't know enough about Brady to have an opinion of him. But if that's a disadvantage, Quinn suffers from the fact that 41 percent see him unfavorably compared to 34 percent who see him favorably. Quinn, of course, is the man who took over the governorship 21 months ago after the ignominious exist of Rod Blagojevich, who was impeached.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Brady ahead by 43 percent to 39 percent with Cohen at 6 percent, Whitney at 4 percent and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. In last week's poll, Brady led by 46 percent to 36 percent. Quinn's unfavorable number is high in this poll as well -- 52 percent view him negatively.

In the equally close Senate race, Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 43 percent to 41 percent with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 7 percent and 9 percent undecided, according to The Fox poll. The margin of error is 3 points. Kirk led last week by two points. Both Kirk and Giannoulias, each of whom has had to deal with damaging stories about their backgrounds, are regarded negatively by voters.

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Kirk leads Giannoulias in the Senate race by 44 percent to 41 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 points. The poll said that while the race is still within the margin of error, the trend seems favorable to Kirk as independents, suburban voters and Republicans are all moving toward him. Four weeks ago, Giannoulias led in this poll by 38 percent to 36 percent with 17 percent undecided. One in five voters say they trust neither candidate, both of whom have had to contend with damaging disclosures about them during the campaign. (Chicago Tribune/WGN, Oct. 18-22).

Indiana

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats looks like a cinch to return to the Senate from Indiana, with a new poll showing him ahead of Democrat Brad Ellsworth by 53 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Rebecca Sink Burris at 5 percent and the remainder undecided. This is the seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. (EPIC-MRA, Oct. 19-21).

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 20 had Coats ahead by 52 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Kentucky

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Rand Paul has opened a 53 percent to 40 percent lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the Senate race, with 7 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 21-24. PPP is now calling Paul the "likely victor" in the race and says the reason is the backlash from Conway's campaign ad saying that Paul, during his college days, worshipped a false god named "Aqua Buddha." Politics Daily correspondent Walter Shapiro wrote about same trend during his reporting travels in Kentucky. (See the full story on this poll).

Paul leads Conway 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided, according to a Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23. The margin of error is 3 points. Ten percent of voters in each candidate's camps say they could yet changed their minds. Paul is seen favorably by a 48 percent to 41 percent margin, with 11 percent undecided or saying they haven't heard of him. Fifty-one percent see Conway unfavorably, while 38 percent regard him favorably, with 11 percent undecided or saying they haven't heard of him.

Maine

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Paul LePage leads the three-way race for governor with 32 percent with Democrat Libby Mitchell at 20 percent, falling into a statistical tie with independent Eliot Cutler. The margin of error is 4 points. (Critical Insights, Oct. 13-17).

LePage is leading Mitchell by 33 percent to 28 percent with 14 percent for Cutler and 3 percent for some other candidate. The margin of error is 4.4 points. (Pan Atlantic SMS Group, Oct. 11-15).

Maryland

POLLS FROM MONDAY

Democrat Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich by 54 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring another choice and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.5 points. In a Sept. 26 poll, O'Malley had led by 49 percent to 35 percent. Seven percent of Ehrlich supports and 6 percent of O'Malley backers say there is a good chance they might change their minds. O'Malley beats Ehrlich on the question of who "understands the problems of people like you" by 51 percent to 36 percent with the remainder undecided or in the "both/neither" column. (Washington Post, Oct. 19-22).

Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 24, has O'Malley ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

O'Malley leads Ehrlich by 52 percent to 38 percent. While more than 4 in 10 voters said they want to elect new candidates to office, the survey said that sentiment doesn't appear to be helping Ehrlich, who lost the governorship to O'Malley in the last election. Pollster Steve Raabe, whose Opinionworks company conducted the poll, told the Sun that Ehrlich is viewed as a "quasi-incumbent" who "doesn't get the change mantle." (Baltimore Sun, Oct. 15-20).

Massachusetts

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker in the governor's race by a slim 43 percent to 39 percent with independent Tim Cahill at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 points. Although that lead is within the margin of error, the poll called it "an encouraging sign for the incumbent heading into the final full week of campaigning" given that its survey last month showed Patrick ahead of Baker by only 35 percent to 34 percent. (Boston Globe poll conducted Oct. 17-22).

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Patrick is leading Baker in the governor's race 44 percent to 36 percent with 8 percent for Cahill 5 percent for Stein and 5 percent undecided. This includes "leaners." Sixty-nine percent of Cahill voters say they may yet change their minds -- typical for third-party candidates as election day approaches -- while 26 percent of Patrick backers and 18 percent of Baker backers are in that category. The margin of error is 5 points. Baker is leading among independents with 32 percent to 26 percent for Patrick, 22 percent for Cahill and 6 percent for Stein. (Western New England College Polling Institute, Oct. 16-21).

Michigan

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero in the governor's race by 54 percent to 34 percent with 4 percent favoring some other candidate and 8 percent undecided. In the previous poll, Snyder led by 51 percent to 38 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 17)

Minnesota

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer by 41 percent to 34 percent followed by independent Tom Horner, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points. (Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, Oct. 18-21).

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Dayton leads Emmer in the race for governor by 44 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent for Horner and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 6 poll, Dayton had led 40 percent to 38 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 20)

Missouri

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Roy Blunt is leading Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Senate race by 49 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, KMOV, Oct. 18-20).

Blunt leads Carnahan by 52 percent to 43 percent, with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. Last week, Blunt led by about the same margin. The margin of error is 4 points. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19).

Blunt leads Carnahan 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Seven percent of those supporting each candidate say they could change their minds. The margin of error is 3 points. (Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 16).

Nevada

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Sharron Angle leads Democrat Harry Reid by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. The margin of error is 4 points. A week ago, Angle had led by 3 points and, the week before that by 1 point. Both have high negatives with the voters. Reid is seen unfavorably by 56 percent (with 51 percent saying they see him "very" unfavorably") while 43 percent see him favorably. Angle is seen unfavorably by 52 percent (with 43 percent seeing her "very" unfavorably) compared to 46 percent who see her favorably.

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Brian Sandoval is leading Democrat Roy Reid in the race for governor by 56 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent favoring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. Last week, Sandoval led 55 percent to 40 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 17)

New Hampshire

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Democratic incumbent John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen in the governor's race 51 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent for other candidates and 9 percent undecided. Last month, Lynch had led 51 percent to 34 percent with 14 percent undecided. (WMUR/University of New Hampshire, Oct. 7-12).

New Mexico

Republican Susan Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish by 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. The gap between Martinez and Denish was about the same in two previous Rasmussen polls, putting the Republicans in a position to retake a governorship that is now held by Democrat Bill Richardson. Martinez is a district attorney and the first Hispanic woman to win a major party nomination for governor. Denish is lieutenant government, and Richardson's current unpopularity in the state -- 57 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as governor -- has been a drag on her.

New York

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Democrat Andrew Cuomo is leading Republican Carl Paladino in the race for governor by 60 percent to 37 percent, with 2 percent undecided. (Marist Institute, released Oct. 22).

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19 has Cuomo ahead 51 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided.

Ohio

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

While Democrat Lee Fisher, the state's lieutenant governor, appears hopelessly behind former Republican Rep. Rob Portman in the race to fill the Senate seat of the GOP's George Voinovich, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland still has a fighting chance against former Republican Rep. John Kasich in his bid to win re-election as governor, although time may be running out on him.

Kasich leads Strickland by 49 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24. The margin of error is 3.7 points. Kasich had led by 10 points in mid-October and by as many as 17 in mid-September. Nine percent of those backing each candidate say they still could change their minds by election day, not leaving a lot of room for Strickland to pick up more ground.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Kasich ahead by 47 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, this poll had Kasich leading by 49 percent to 43 percent. Eight percent of Kasich supporters and 9 percent of Strickland backers say they could changer their minds.

In the Senate race, Fox says Portman leads Fisher by 53 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided.

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Kasich leads Strickland by 49 percent to 47 percent in the governor's race with 5 percent undecided or backing another candidate. The margin of error is 3.3 points. Kasich had led by 4 points the last time this poll was conducted in late September. The outcome is likely to be all about which party does a better job turning out its voters. Eric Rademacher of the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy research, which conducted the poll, told Ohio news organizations, "It's a close race, but the dynamics, especially the advantage the Republicans have in turnout, still favor Kasich." (Ohio Newspaper poll, Oct. 14-18).

Portman leads Fisher in the Senate race by 58 percent to 39 percent. (Ohio Newspaper poll,Oct. 14-18).

Oregon

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Democrat John Kitzhaber holds a statistically-insignificant 45 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican Chris Dudley in his bid to return to the governor's office in Oregon. It is the fourth time this poll has shown the two neck-and-neck. The margin of error is 4.4 points. Kitzhaber had served as governor for two terms ending in 1993. Dudley is a financial adviser and former NBA player.(Elway Poll, Oct. 18-19).

Kitzhaber leads Dudley in the race for governor by 48 percent to 47 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 points. (Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling, Oct. 16-17).

Pennsylvania

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Pat Toomey is tied with Democrat Joe Sestak in the SWenate race at 46 percent each with 2 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 22-24. The margin of error is 4.9 points.

The same poll says Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato in the governor's race by 49 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided.

The Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call dailing tracking poll has Toomey leading Sestak by 48percent to 40 percent in the Senate race, with 12 percent undecided.

Corbett leads Onorato in the race for governor by 50 percent to 39 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error for both races is 5 points.

Rhode Island

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican-turned-independent Lincoln Chafee leads Democrat Frank Caprio 35 percent to 28 percent in the race for governor with 25 percent for Republican John Robitaille. Six percent back Moderate Party candidate Ken Block and 6 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 4 poll, Chafee had led Caprio by only 33 percent to 30 percent, with 22 percent for Robitaille. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21).

South Carolina

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen by 51 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided. (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 19)

Haley is leading Sheheen by 47 percent to 38 percent in the race to succeed GOP Gov. Mark Sanford, with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. In a Sept. 22 poll, Haley had held a 50 percent to 33 percent margin. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19). See related story.

Texas

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Republican incumbent Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White in the governor's race by 50 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent for Libertarian Kathie Glass and 2 percent for Green Party candidate Deb Shafto. Perry is in the lead even though he does not have great job approval numbers, with 45 percent approving of his performance, 37 percent disapproving, 13 percent neither approving or disapproving and 5 percent undecided. That's reflected in the fact that a modest 53 percent of Perry backers describe their support as "strong." Seventy-two percent of White backers say they are strong supporters. (University of Texas/Texas Tribune, Oct. 11-18).

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican incumbent Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White in the governor's race by 51 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Perry had led 53 percent to 42 percent in an Oct. 6 poll. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21).

Washington

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is leading Republican Dino Rossi by 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 14-16).

West Virginia

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican John Raese has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Democrat Joe Manchin in their race to fill the Senate seat of the late Robert Byrd, according to a Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23. The margin of error is 3 points. This outcome is at odds with a Public Policy Polling survey from Monday indicating that Manchin was getting traction in the race. Nine percent of Raese supports and 7 percent of Manchin backers say they could yet change their minds.

As close as the race is, Manchin remains hugely popular with 69 percent approving of the job he is doing as governor. But asked whether a desire to keep him in that job was a factor in deciding their Senate vote, 62 percent said it was not.

There is a strong anti-Democrat and anti-President Obama tide running in the state, and 54 percent say that Manchin sides too often with Obama on policy issues -- an impression he has been trying to dispel, even declining the other day to say whether he would support Obama for a second term, or, if elected to the Senate, support Harry Reid for majority leader.

Raese's baggage is that 50 percent of voters believe he is out of touch with West Virginia families, while 39 percent disagree, with 11 percent undecided. Raese's wife and two children live in Palm Beach, Fla. Democrats have been trying to portray him as a rich, out-of-state opportunist and have run an ad saying "John Raese thinks we're hicks" and notes that Raese's wife is registered to vote in Florida.

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has notched up his lead over Republican John Raese in the Senate race, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 points. Two weeks ago, this poll had him ahead by only 3 points. Manchin's personal popularity remains high, but he has been struggling against a tide of anti-Democratic feeling reflected by the 65 percent of voters who disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 23-24)

Wisconsin

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican newcomer Ron Johnson leads Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race by 53 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. The margin of error is 4 points. That's not much change from two weeks ago, when Johnson led by 52 percent to 45 percent. Johnson has now been above 50 percent in four straight Rasmussen polls. Johnson is seen favorably by 58 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent, with 2 percent not sure. Feingold is seen favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent, with 3 percent not sure. Johnson is leading among unaffiliated voters.

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Ron Johnson is leading Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the race for the Senate by 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 points. (St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio, Oct. 12-15).

Republican Scott Walker leads Democrat Tom Barrett in the governor's race by 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring some other choice and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 points. (St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio, Oct. 12-15)

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