Senate, Governor Polls: Updating California, Colorado, Kentucky, Nevada and Pennsylvania

Our latest roundup of polls on key governor and Senate races includes Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Like Ohio, Pennsylvania could be one of those states where Republicans could walk away with both the governor and Senate seats. In Ohio, the Senate race looks out of reach for the Democrats but they still have a chance in the governor's race, although winning it will be an uphill battle. In Pennsylvania, the governor's race appears to be a sure shot for Republican Tom Corbett, who has mostly held double-digit leads over Democrat Dan Onorato. The Senate race between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak is still in play, but Toomey has led in most polls, although Sestak has come close in others.

The new Franklin & Marshall College poll gives Toomey an 8 point lead, and has a generally bearish outlook on Democratic midterm fortunes in this state because the "enthusiasm gap" that has been favoring Republicans in a lot of races is making itself felt.

The most notable of the new polls Wednesday:

-- In Florida, the governor's race between Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink remains close, but a Sunshine State News poll suggests the momentum is with Scott.

-- In Nevada, Scott Ashjian, who is running as a Tea Party candidate much to the consternation of many others in the movement, is getting 2 points that is coming off Republican Sharron Angle's margin in the close Senate race, according to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll.

-- The CNN/Time/Opinion Research polling released Wednesday has Republican Rand Paul hitting the 50 percent mark in Kentucky, confirming a Public Policy Polling survey from Tuesday showing Paul taking command on the race.

-- In Colorado, the latest poll shows Republican Ken Buck and Democrat Michael Bennet in a staistical tie.

-- In Oregon, the same old story: Republican Chris Dudley, a financial adviser best known as a longtime journeyman in the NBA, is in a dead heat with Democrat John Kitzhaber, a former two-term governor.

-- Republicans have the edge in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle, with Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker running ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

-- No surprises in the latest poll on the Arkansas Senate race -- Republican John Boozman remains far ahead of Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln -- but the poll notes some interesting trends among independents.

You can find all the details and links to the polls under the state headings below.

Check back here for more updates throughout the day.

Alaska

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski is tied with Joe Miller, who beat her for the GOP senate nomination, at 37 percent each with Democrat Scott McAdams at 23 percent, with 2 percent undecided. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 15-19).

Arizona

Republican incumbent Jan Brewer is leading Democrat Terry Goddard, the state's attorney general, in the governor's race by 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 23-24.

The same poll shows Sen. John McCain leading Democrat Rodney Glassman by 56 percent to 38 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

Arkansas

POLLS RELEASED WEDNESDAY:

Republican John Boozman is leading Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the Senate race by 48 percent to 36 percent with 16 percent undecided, according to a University of Arkansas poll conducted Oct. 8-20.

Poll director Janine Parry said, "This election, as always in Arkansas, lies in the hands of people not closely aligned with either major party. Both parties are losing loyalists in a rough economy, meaning the percentage of unaffiliated respondents has swelled to the largest proportion we've recorded."

Forty-four percent of those identifying themselves as independents felt closer to the Republican party and, when it comes to those who are likely voters, the number rises to 50 percent. Only 21 percent of independents and 16 percent of very likely independent voters favored the Democratic Party, according to the poll.

California

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Democrat Jerry Brown is leading Republican Meg Whitman in the governor's race by 51 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent liking neither and 2 percent undecided, according to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 20-26. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

Brown is leading Whitman by 46 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent preferring another candidate and 8 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-25. The margin of error is 4.1 points. Brown is leading Whitman among woman voters by 12 points and among Latino voters by 23 points.

In the Senate race, SurveyUSA has Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 45 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent preferring another candidate and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error for this race is also 4.1 points.

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll has Boxer leading Fiorina by 50 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent in the "neither/other" category and 3 percent undecided.

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 21-23 has Brown running ahead of Whitman in the governor's race by 53 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided, and Boxer ahead of Fiorina in the Senate race by 52 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points. PPP says, "The biggest reason Boxer is maintaining her margin and Brown is expanding his is that both have now unified their party more than the Republicans have theirs...Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina never showed the kind of appeal to Democrats they would have needed to win in California."

A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 21-24 shows Brown holding a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Whitman, with 5 percent supporting other candidates and 3 percent undecided.

The same poll shows Boxer leading Fiorina by 52 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for other candidates and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error for both polls is 4 points.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 had Brown leading Whitman by 50 percent to 41 percent in the governor's race with 6 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, Brown's lead was 48 percent to 43 percent. Most voters in the survey see both Brown and Whitman negatively, but Whitman more so. Fifty-four percent have an unfavorably view of her compared to 39 percent who view her favorably with the rest undecided or saying they never heard of her. Fifty-percent see Brown unfavorably while 46 percent see him favorably with 5 percent not sure.

In the Senate race, Fox has Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 48 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, Boxer led by 48 percent to 44 percent. Seven percent of Boxer supporters say they could change their minds compared to 4 percent for Fiorina. Fifty percent disapprove of the job Boxer is doing as senator compared to 41 percent who approve, with 9 percent undecided.

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Brown has jumped to a 52 percent to 39 percent lead over Whitman in California's governor. The poll showed Whitman suffering from defections on the part of women, Latinos and nonpartisan voters. A big turning point in the campaign was the revelation in late September by Whitman's former housekeeper for nine years, Nicandra Diaz Santillan, that she had been in the country illegally. Whitman found herself whipsawed between those voters for whom Diaz Santillan's employment ran counter to anti-illegal immigration sentiment and those who felt Whitman had treated her callously in firing her. Brown's support among likely Latino voters has grown from 20 points to 34 points. (Los Angeles Times/USC poll, Oct. 13-20).

Boxer leads Fiorina by 50 percent to 42 percent. In the September poll, her lead had been 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 3.2 points. (Los Angeles Times/USC poll, Oct. 13-20).

Colorado

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Republican Ken Buck and Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet are in a statistical tie with Buck leading 47 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent in the "other/neither" category and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. In a September poll, Buck had led by 49 percent to 44 percent. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democrat John Hickenlooper is hanging on to a 47 percent to 44 percent lead over American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, with Republican Dan Maes at 5 percent and 4 percent undecided. The collapse of party support for the GOP nominee has meant that Tancredo, a former Republican congressman, has been able to garner 73 percent of the Republican vote, effectively turning what started as a three-way race into a two-way match-up that is more competitive. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 21-23).

Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck are tied at 47 percent each in the Senate race, with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.4 points. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 21-23).

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Bennet and Buck are tied at 47 percent each in the Senate race. Five percent support another candidate and 1 percent is undecided. In the last poll, Buck had led 48 percent to 43 percent. (SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-21).

In the governor's race, Hickenlooper leads Tancredo by 49 percent to 39 percent with Republican Dan Maes at 9 percent. He is taking 65 percent of the Republican vote in this poll. (SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-21).

Connecticut

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Democrat Richard Blumenthal is holding on to a comfortable lead over Republican Linda McMahon in their race to fill the Senate seat left open by the retirement of Christopher Dodd, but Democrat Dan Malloy is in a much closer contest in his gubernatorial bid against Republican Tom Foley, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24.

Blumenthal, the state's attorney general, leads McMahon, the former head of World Wrestling Entertainment, by 54 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 points. That's about the same margin Blumenthal had two weeks ago. Only 6 percent of voters in each camp say they may yet change their minds. As has been the case in most every poll on this race, Blumenthal is seen favorably by a wide margin, while McMahon is viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters -- which some have seen as a backlash against her well-funded campaign of negative TV ads and direct mail.

"Linda McMahon has tried to raise Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's negatives over the last several weeks, but she hasn't been successful," said Quinnipiac's Douglas Schwartz. "He remains popular, but McMahon's own negatives have risen above 50 percent. One has to wonder if over the last few weeks McMahon would have been better off spending more of her millions on positive ads."

In the governor's race, Malloy, the mayor of Stamford, leads Foley, a businessman and former ambassador to Ireland, by 48 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided in the Quinnipiac poll. The margin of error is 3.7 points. In mid-October, Malloy had led by 49 percent to 42 percent, and in late September by 45 percent to 42 percent. There's room for a shift in this race because 12 percent of Malloy voters say they could change their minds and the same is the case for 10 percent of Foley backers.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Blumenthal out in front by 53 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24 has Malloy leading by a smaller margin, 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

The Oct. 23 Fox News poll put Malloy ahead of Foley by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Blumenthal leads McMahon by 56 percent to 43 percent in the Senate race with 2 percent undecided or preferring some other candidate. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 24)

Florida

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Republican Rick Scott has inched back ahead of Democrat Alex Sink in the wake of their Monday night debate, leading her by 47 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided, according to a Sunshine State Poll conducted Oct. 24-25. Prior to the faceoff, the two were tied at 45 percent each and, in an Oct. 12-13 poll, Sink had led 48 percent to 45 percent. Pollster Jim Lee told the Sunshine News, "These two are so evenly matched that for the last three weeks they have traded the lead more than once -- yet the election is now in Scott's favor."

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Republican Marco Rubio appears to be steaming towards victory in the Florida Senate race, leading independent Charlie Crist by 41 percent to 26 percent with 20 percent for Democrat Kendrick Meek. Julia Clark, a pollster for Ipsos which conducted the survey, said "There doesn't seem to be much doubt in our minds that Rubio will take the election." ( St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll,Oct. 15-19).

Georgia

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes 49 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian John Mondes, 5 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. Deal slipped backed from the 50 percent mark he had hit in an Oct. 6 poll. If the winner doesn't notch 50 percent, it forces a run-off. Deal is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Barnes is seen unfavorably 53 percent compared to 40 percent who see him favorably, with 6 percent not sure. Deal has a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters.

A WSB-TV/InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 24 has Deal leading Barnes by 47 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent for Monds and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2 points.

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Deal leads Barnes in the governor's race by 49 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent for Monds, with 3 percent undecided. Both Deal, until recently a congressman, and Barnes, a former one-term governor, get the same high level of support from their respective parties (Republicans are weighted at 42 percent of the sample and Democrats at 34 percent), but Deal leads among independents (20 percent of the sample) by 44 percent to 27 percent with Monds getting 25 percent with 4 percent undecided. Deal needs to hit 50 percent to avoid a runoff. The margin of error is 4.1 points. (SurveyUSA, Oct. 21-24).

Hawaii

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democrat Neil Abercrombie is leading Republican James "Duke" Aiona in the governor's race by 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. The outgoing governor is Republican Linda Lingle. (Honolulu Star Advertiser, Oct. 12-19).

Illinois

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 46 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent for Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, 5 percent for some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A week ago, Kirk led by 44 percent to 40 percent. The two haven't been separated by more than 4 points since the Labor Day start of the campaign season. Voters view both candidates unfavorably. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the race for governor by 43 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for independent Scott Lee Cohen, 4 percent for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, 2 percent for Libertarian Lex Green and 6 percent undecided, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN poll conducted Oct. 18-22. The margin of error is 3.7 points. In the last poll about a month ago, Quinn had 39 percent to Brady's 38 percent.

The Tribune reports, "Much of Brady's advance may be due to a heavy dose of negative TV advertising against Quinn, largely funded through donations by the Republican Governors Association. Quinn has also aired his share of attack ads at Brady, but is outmatched in the money game."

One question is the impact of Cohen's small but noticeable amount of support in the race. Cohen had won the nomination to run as the Democrat's lieutenant governor candidate but dropped out after a series of damaging disclosures. He has spent almost $6 million of his own money on the race, the Tribune reports.

Almost a third of voters don't know enough about Brady to have an opinion of him. But if that's a disadvantage, Quinn suffers from the fact that 41 percent see him unfavorably compared to 34 percent who see him favorably. Quinn, of course, is the man who took over the governorship 21 months ago after the ignominious exist of Rod Blagojevich, who was impeached.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Brady ahead by 43 percent to 39 percent with Cohen at 6 percent, Whitney at 4 percent and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. In last week's poll, Brady led by 46 percent to 36 percent. Quinn's unfavorable number is high in this poll as well -- 52 percent view him negatively.

In the equally close Senate race, Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 43 percent to 41 percent with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 7 percent and 9 percent undecided, according to The Fox poll. The margin of error is 3 points. Kirk led last week by two points. Both Kirk and Giannoulias, each of whom has had to deal with damaging stories about their backgrounds, are regarded negatively by voters.

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Kirk leads Giannoulias in the Senate race by 44 percent to 41 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 points. The poll said that while the race is still within the margin of error, the trend seems favorable to Kirk as independents, suburban voters and Republicans are all moving toward him. Four weeks ago, Giannoulias led in this poll by 38 percent to 36 percent with 17 percent undecided. One in five voters say they trust neither candidate, both of whom have had to contend with damaging disclosures about them during the campaign. (Chicago Tribune/WGN, Oct. 18-22).

Indiana

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats looks like a cinch to return to the Senate from Indiana, with a new poll showing him ahead of Democrat Brad Ellsworth by 53 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Rebecca Sink Burris at 5 percent and the remainder undecided. This is the seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. (EPIC-MRA, Oct. 19-21).

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 20 had Coats ahead by 52 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Kentucky

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Republican Rand Paul has hit the 50 percent mark in his race against Democrat Jack Conway who is attracting 43 percent of the vote, with 3 percent liking neither and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. Paul is leading among independents by 63 percent to 26 percent. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Paul has opened a 53 percent to 40 percent lead over Conway in the Senate race, with 7 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 21-24. PPP is now calling Paul the "likely victor" in the race and says the reason is the backlash from Conway's campaign ad saying that Paul, during his college days, worshipped a false god named "Aqua Buddha." Politics Daily correspondent Walter Shapiro wrote about same trend during his reporting travels in Kentucky. (See the full story on this poll).

Paul leads Conway 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided, according to a Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23. The margin of error is 3 points. Ten percent of voters in each candidate's camps say they could yet changed their minds. Paul is seen favorably by a 48 percent to 41 percent margin, with 11 percent undecided or saying they haven't heard of him. Fifty-one percent see Conway unfavorably, while 38 percent regard him favorably, with 11 percent undecided or saying they haven't heard of him.

Maine

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Paul LePage leads the three-way race for governor with 32 percent with Democrat Libby Mitchell at 20 percent, falling into a statistical tie with independent Eliot Cutler. The margin of error is 4 points. (Critical Insights, Oct. 13-17).

LePage is leading Mitchell by 33 percent to 28 percent with 14 percent for Cutler and 3 percent for some other candidate. The margin of error is 4.4 points. (Pan Atlantic SMS Group, Oct. 11-15).

Maryland

POLLS FROM MONDAY

Democrat Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich by 54 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring another choice and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.5 points. In a Sept. 26 poll, O'Malley had led by 49 percent to 35 percent. Seven percent of Ehrlich supports and 6 percent of O'Malley backers say there is a good chance they might change their minds. O'Malley beats Ehrlich on the question of who "understands the problems of people like you" by 51 percent to 36 percent with the remainder undecided or in the "both/neither" column. (Washington Post, Oct. 19-22).

Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 24, has O'Malley ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

Massachusetts

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker in the governor's race by a slim 43 percent to 39 percent with independent Tim Cahill at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 points. Although that lead is within the margin of error, the poll called it "an encouraging sign for the incumbent heading into the final full week of campaigning" given that its survey last month showed Patrick ahead of Baker by only 35 percent to 34 percent. (Boston Globe poll conducted Oct. 17-22).

Michigan

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero in the governor's race by 54 percent to 34 percent with 4 percent favoring some other candidate and 8 percent undecided. In the previous poll, Snyder led by 51 percent to 38 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 17)

Minnesota

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer by 41 percent to 34 percent followed by independent Tom Horner, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points. (Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, Oct. 18-21).

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Dayton leads Emmer in the race for governor by 44 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent for Horner and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 6 poll, Dayton had led 40 percent to 38 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 20)

Missouri

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Roy Blunt is leading Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Senate race by 49 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, KMOV, Oct. 18-20).

Blunt leads Carnahan by 52 percent to 43 percent, with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. Last week, Blunt led by about the same margin. The margin of error is 4 points. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19).

Blunt leads Carnahan 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Seven percent of those supporting each candidate say they could change their minds. The margin of error is 3 points. (Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 16).

Nevada

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

It's been clear for months now that Republican Brian Sandoval, a former state attorney general and federal judge, had the race for governor well in hand, and the latest poll is just another confirmation of that. Sandoval leads Rory Reid, son of Harry, by 58 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. Sandoval has held double-digit leads over Reid in 16 matchups done by Rasmussen dating back to February.

Republican Sharron Angle leads Democrat Harry Reid by 49 percent to 45 percent in the Senate race with 2 percent for Scott Ashjian, who is running as a Tea Party candidate and 3 percent who don't like any of the choices. With Ashjian out of the race, Angle would be leading by 51 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Angle leads Reid by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. The margin of error is 4 points. A week ago, Angle had led by 3 points and, the week before that by 1 point. Both have high negatives with the voters. Reid is seen unfavorably by 56 percent (with 51 percent saying they see him "very" unfavorably") while 43 percent see him favorably. Angle is seen unfavorably by 52 percent (with 43 percent seeing her "very" unfavorably) compared to 46 percent who see her favorably.

New Hampshire

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Democratic incumbent John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen in the governor's race 51 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent for other candidates and 9 percent undecided. Last month, Lynch had led 51 percent to 34 percent with 14 percent undecided. (WMUR/University of New Hampshire, Oct. 7-12).

New Mexico

Republican Susan Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish by 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. The gap between Martinez and Denish was about the same in two previous Rasmussen polls, putting the Republicans in a position to retake a governorship that is now held by Democrat Bill Richardson. Martinez is a district attorney and the first Hispanic woman to win a major party nomination for governor. Denish is lieutenant government, and Richardson's current unpopularity in the state -- 57 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as governor -- has been a drag on her.

New York

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

There's never been much doubt that, barring surprises, the Democrats in blue New York were going to withstand the Republican tide, and a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24 underlines the point, showing Democrat Andrew Cuomo ahead of Republican Carl Paladino by 55 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided in the governor's race, and first-term Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi by 57 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided in her bid for re-election.

North Carolina

Democrat Elaine Marshall just hasn't been able to gain any traction in her challenge to first term Republican Sen. Richard Burr, even though several polls have shown him with lackluster job approval and favorability numbers with voters. The latest poll, conducted Oct. 22-25 by SurveyUSA, demonstrates that again, showing Burr ahead of her by 43 percent to 38 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian Michael Beitler and 3 percent undecided.

Ohio

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

While Democrat Lee Fisher, the state's lieutenant governor, appears hopelessly behind former Republican Rep. Rob Portman in the race to fill the Senate seat of the GOP's George Voinovich, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland still has a fighting chance against former Republican Rep. John Kasich in his bid to win re-election as governor, although time may be running out on him.

Kasich leads Strickland by 49 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24. The margin of error is 3.7 points. Kasich had led by 10 points in mid-October and by as many as 17 in mid-September. Nine percent of those backing each candidate say they still could change their minds by election day, not leaving a lot of room for Strickland to pick up more ground.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Kasich ahead by 47 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, this poll had Kasich leading by 49 percent to 43 percent. Eight percent of Kasich supporters and 9 percent of Strickland backers say they could changer their minds.

In the Senate race, Fox says Portman leads Fisher by 53 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided.

POLLS FROM SUNDAY:

Kasich leads Strickland by 49 percent to 47 percent in the governor's race with 5 percent undecided or backing another candidate. The margin of error is 3.3 points. Kasich had led by 4 points the last time this poll was conducted in late September. The outcome is likely to be all about which party does a better job turning out its voters. Eric Rademacher of the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy research, which conducted the poll, told Ohio news organizations, "It's a close race, but the dynamics, especially the advantage the Republicans have in turnout, still favor Kasich." (Ohio Newspaper poll, Oct. 14-18).

Portman leads Fisher in the Senate race by 58 percent to 39 percent. (Ohio Newspaper poll,Oct. 14-18).

Oregon

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Two new polls show the governor's race between Republican newcomer Chris Dudley and Democrat John Kitzhaber to be a dead heat.

A poll by Davis, Hibbits & Migdall reported by the Portland Tribune conducted Oct. 24-25 has Dudley ahead of Kitzhaber by 46 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 points. The Tribune said, "In effect, Oregon voters haven't budged much since the May primary, despite more than $12 million in campaign spending by both sides."

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25 has Dudley leading Kitzhaber by 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 10 poll, Kitzhaber had led by 48 percent to 46 percent. Voters are divided at 42 percent each about whether they favor a candidate with political experience (Kitzhaber is a former two-term governor) or a candidate who has never held office, (Dudley is a former pro basketball player who went into financial consulting). Both candidates are seen favorably by voters. Dudley is doing better than Kitzhaber as far as the level of support from their respective parties, and has a modest lead among unaffiliated voters.

Pennsylvania

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Republican Pat Toomey is leading Democrat Joe Sestak in the Senate race by 48 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent undecided among likely voters, with "leaners" for each candidate included, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Oct. 18-24. In the governor's race, Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato by 51 percent to 35 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error for both polls is 4.4 points.

Franklin & Marshall says, "Democrats are at a decided disadvantage when it comes to voter motivation. Only 36 percent of Democrats fall into the most likely to vote category compared to 49 percent of Republicans ... Another example of the gap in partisan enthusiasm is that only one in three (33 percent) of those who voted for Obama in 2008 are in the most likely to vote category versus half (52 percent) of McCain voters."

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 20-26 has Toomey leading Sestak by 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent in the "other/neither" column and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. The poll has Corbett leading Onorato in the governor's race by 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent described as "other/neither" and 2 percent undecided. Both these sets of results were not much different than this poll showed in mid-September.

The latest Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call tracking poll has Toomey ahead by a smaller 46 percent to 41 percent margin with 12 percent undecided and Corbett leading in the governor's race by 52 percent to 38 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 points. Muhlenberg's totals also include leaners.

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Toomey is tied with Sestak in the Senate race at 46 percent each with 2 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 22-24. The margin of error is 4.9 points.

The same poll says Corbett leads Onorato in the governor's race by 49 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided.

Rhode Island

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican-turned-independent Lincoln Chafee leads Democrat Frank Caprio 35 percent to 28 percent in the race for governor with 25 percent for Republican John Robitaille. Six percent back Moderate Party candidate Ken Block and 6 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 4 poll, Chafee had led Caprio by only 33 percent to 30 percent, with 22 percent for Robitaille. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21).

South Carolina

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen by 51 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided. (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 19)

Haley is leading Sheheen by 47 percent to 38 percent in the race to succeed GOP Gov. Mark Sanford, with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. In a Sept. 22 poll, Haley had held a 50 percent to 33 percent margin. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19). See related story.

Texas

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Republican incumbent Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White in the governor's race by 50 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent for Libertarian Kathie Glass and 2 percent for Green Party candidate Deb Shafto. Perry is in the lead even though he does not have great job approval numbers, with 45 percent approving of his performance, 37 percent disapproving, 13 percent neither approving or disapproving and 5 percent undecided. That's reflected in the fact that a modest 53 percent of Perry backers describe their support as "strong." Seventy-two percent of White backers say they are strong supporters. (University of Texas/Texas Tribune, Oct. 11-18).

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Republican incumbent Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White in the governor's race by 51 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Perry had led 53 percent to 42 percent in an Oct. 6 poll. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21).

Washington

POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:

Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is leading Republican Dino Rossi by 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 14-16).

West Virginia

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Democrat Joe Manchin leads Republican John Raese by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent favoring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Raese led by 50 percent to 43 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican John Raese has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Democrat Joe Manchin in their race to fill the Senate seat of the late Robert Byrd, according to a Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23. The margin of error is 3 points. This outcome is at odds with a Public Policy Polling survey from Monday indicating that Manchin was getting traction in the race. Nine percent of Raese supports and 7 percent of Manchin backers say they could yet change their minds.

As close as the race is, Manchin remains hugely popular with 69 percent approving of the job he is doing as governor. But asked whether a desire to keep him in that job was a factor in deciding their Senate vote, 62 percent said it was not.

There is a strong anti-Democrat and anti-President Obama tide running in the state, and 54 percent say that Manchin sides too often with Obama on policy issues -- an impression he has been trying to dispel, even declining the other day to say whether he would support Obama for a second term, or, if elected to the Senate, support Harry Reid for majority leader.

Raese's baggage is that 50 percent of voters believe he is out of touch with West Virginia families, while 39 percent disagree, with 11 percent undecided. Raese's wife and two children live in Palm Beach, Fla. Democrats have been trying to portray him as a rich, out-of-state opportunist and have run an ad saying "John Raese thinks we're hicks" and notes that Raese's wife is registered to vote in Florida.

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has notched up his lead over Republican John Raese in the Senate race, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 points. Two weeks ago, this poll had him ahead by only 3 points. Manchin's personal popularity remains high, but he has been struggling against a tide of anti-Democratic feeling reflected by the 65 percent of voters who disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing. (Public Policy Polling, Oct. 23-24)

Wisconsin

POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:

Republican Scott Walker, the Milwaukee county executive, is leading Democrat Tom Barrett, the Milwaukee mayor, by 52 percent to 42 percent in the race for governor, with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. This is the third poll since Sept. 29 where Walker has been at the crucial 50 percent mark or above. Walker benefits by getting 96 percent support from fellow Republicans while Barrett has 83 percent support from Democrats. Walker has a big advantage among unaffiliated voters. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 25)

POLLS FROM TUESDAY:

Republican newcomer Ron Johnson leads Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race by 53 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. The margin of error is 4 points. That's not much change from two weeks ago, when Johnson led by 52 percent to 45 percent. Johnson has now been above 50 percent in four straight Rasmussen polls. Johnson is seen favorably by 58 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent, with 2 percent not sure. Feingold is seen favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent, with 3 percent not sure. Johnson is leading among unaffiliated voters.

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