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Poll: Millennial Generation Split Between Obama and 'Generic' Republican

1 year ago
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A recent poll of 18–29-year-olds commissioned by Harvard's Institute of Politics contains a lot of interesting information. But one finding caught my eye, as it may hold hope for the future of the Republican "brand."

According to the Press Release (PDF),
In 2012 preview, Barack Obama bests potential Republican challengers by 25 to 30 points, dead heat against "generic" Republican. In a proposed election match-up between Barack Obama and "the Republican Party's candidate for President," a dead-heat emerges (31% Obama, 30% Republican, and 39% "Don't know").
This, of course, is great news for Republicans worried they may have lost the youth vote for a generation after President Obama's 2008 campaign. But there's more,
when three possible Republican candidates were named in the match-up, the results changed dramatically in favor of Obama (Obama 44% - Newt Gingrich 14%; Obama 48% - Sarah Palin 23%; Obama 43% - Mitt Romney 18%).
An optimist would argue that this means Republicans just haven't found the right candidate yet (if only that elusive "generic" Republican candidate would just show up!) I suppose it is possible that a youthful and smart Republican like, say, Marco Rubio, could grab a good portion of the millennial vote if he ran.

On the other hand, it's fair to assume that any Republican running in 2012 would have an uphill climb, especially if running against Obama also meant running against MTV, Jay-Z, and Jon Stewart.

Still Republicans should take the results as a positive sign. Even if young people aren't crazy about potential 2012 GOP candidates, they also haven't abandoned the notion of ever casting a vote for a Republican. Baby steps ...

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