How N.Y. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand Fended Off All Comers

NEW YORK – Not so long ago political analysts and insiders in New York political circles saw Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand as easy pickings.

She was an upstate two-term congresswoman from a rural and conservative district appointed to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton after Caroline Kennedy, the sentimental favorite, withdrew from consideration during the messy, two-month process. From the moment Gillibrand took the job in Jan. 2009, she was under attack -- ignored, criticized or dismissed by all sides and political parties. Even after serving a few months, most New Yorkers still didn't know exactly who she was, or how she was handling her job, or what she stood for.

So, few political speculators gave Gillibrand much of a chance to win the seat in her own right in the midterms this year. Now, three days before Election Day, Gillibrand -- known as Gilly in the city tabloids, a term of endearment or not -- is supported by 50 percent of likely voters compared to 25 percent for her Republican opponent, Joseph J. DioGuardi, a former congressman who is better known as the father of ex-"American Idol" judge and songwriter Kara DioGuardi.

Gillibrand's anticipated victory lap has to be a surprising turning point for her. It would come in a relatively short time and in an anti-Democratic political cycle when GOP candidates are challenging and most likely upending Democrats not only across the country but in upstate New York as well.

She may be "the luckiest candidate in recent New York history," wrote the political columnist John Heilemann in New York magazine a few weeks ago, referring to the GOP's likely defeat of Democratic incumbents.

For a few months in the spring, Gillibrand was written off as weak, long-winded, and too conservative for liberal New York City, a vote-heavy region which tends to offset the more Republican-leaning upstate. Back in March and April, her poll numbers were modest and her profile in media-savvy New York was quite low or undefined. On top of those negatives, she'd never run for statewide office.

Possible rivals -- brand names, billionaires, and veteran politicians -- popped up one after another, only to fade into the woodwork, muttering about this not being the right time or some such platitudes. Among the potential GOP opponents who stayed out of the race after sampling the waters were former Gov. George E. Pataki and Mortimer B. Zuckerman, the real estate mogul and publisher of the New York Daily News. Democrats, too, considered taking her on. At the head of that line stood the Manhattan borough president, Scott M. Stringer; U.S. Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island; and U.S. Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney of Manhattan. All stayed out.

In the spring there was buzz about about a possible challenge from Harold Ford Jr., the Democratic liberal-centrist who lost a Tennessee Senate race by a whisker. Ford moved to New York, made the rounds of the media and dinner parties, and procured money backers in high places. But Gillibrand quietly racked up major backstage support and money. Elder Democrats told Ford that a primary fight would not be good for the party. But more importantly, President Obama didn't like the idea of a challenge to Gillibrand.

"Obama made calls to keep him from running against her," said a Democratic media strategist who asked not to be identified because he does business with all the people involved. "Obama didn't want a primary fight. He needed her vote in the Senate and didn't want to take the chance that a primary fight would lead to a loss of that seat."

Ford resisted, but in the end, he folded

Gillibrand has another powerful supporter, namely Sen. Charles E. Schumer, a kingmaker in New York with major national fundraising and organizing capabilities and who stands to become the next Senate majority leader if Harry Reid loses on Tuesday in Nevada and if Democrats hold on to the Senate. Schumer has seen to it that other Democrats who might have run against her would bow out. It's been said that Schumer enjoys the status of senior senator and the deference that Gillibrand -- perhaps unlike Hillary Clinton -- shows him.

But how was Gillibrand protected from the Republicans? In what's billed as a GOP election year, this was a near perfect opportunity for the Republicans to take that Senate seat. But no major name stepped up. Why?

The answer may be Alfonse M. D'Amato, the former Republican U.S. senator who still wields influence in the party in New York. It's widely believed, according to the media strategist, that D'Amato may have kept well-known Republicans who had a chance of winning from running against Gillibrand. Insiders speculate that D'Amato's loyalty to her and her family, whom he has known for years -- he was front and center when her Senate appointment was announced -- was behind his reluctance to support a Republican challenger.

Besides, Gillibrand has resources of her own. She comes from a prominent political family in the Albany area connected to figures in both parties. She spent college summers as an intern for D'Amato. Her father, Douglas P. Rutnick, was a well-known lobbyist in Albany, the state's capital, and her grandmother, Polly Noonan, was a major cog in the Albany political machine.

So Gillibrand is no stranger to politics. On her first campaign, in 2006, she defeated an entrenched congressman in a traditional Republican district. As a child, she licked envelopes for her grandmother's political campaigns. At Dartmouth, she majored in Asian studies (she can speak Mandarin Chinese) and interned at the United Nations. After law school at UCLA, she worked at prominent law firms in New York, at one point representing Altria, the parent company of the Philip Morris tobacco company.

Then came Hillary Clinton.

Gillibrand has said a Hillary Clinton speech inspired her to get into politics and that she is modeling her Senate career on Hillary's own. In Washington, Gillibrand championed transparency, listing on her website her meetings with lobbyists. She supported balanced budget amendments, opposed amnesty for illegal immigrants, and is a fierce supporter of gay marriage and the repeal of "don't ask, don't tell." The law banning gays from serving openly in the military is awaiting a Senate vote.

At 43 the Senate's youngest member, Gillibrand is by most accounts a tireless campaigner and fundraiser who worked until the day before she gave birth to her first son, Theodore, and to her second son, Henry (her husband, Jonathan, is a British venture capitalist two years her junior.) She's a youthful, athletic, competitive and ambitious woman who friends believe will run for the presidency some day.

Earlier this year, while batting away potential rivals and working relentlessly in the Senate, she strapped herself to a strict diet and exercise regimen to lose her pregnancy weight. She has lost 40 pounds, thinned down to a size 4/6 from a size 16, and so jazzed Harry Reid that he publicly called her the Senate's "hottest member."

Now she's got a spread in Vogue. Next week, she's likely to keep her job.