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Countdown to Election Day: Senate Races to Watch

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Republicans will edge close toward control of the Senate Tuesday but are unlikely to be able to seal the deal.

While the GOP is widely favored to win back the House, it faces a narrower path to victory across Capitol Hill. Political prognosticator Charlie Cook calls the chances of Republicans picking up the 10 seats they need to wrest the upper chamber from Democratic control "non-existent."

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, told CBS' "The Early Show," that the House will likely flip, but "it's harder in the Senate. It's more of a stretch."

The current partisan breakdown in the upper chamber is 57 Democrats, 41Republicans and two independents who caucus with the majority.

Incumbents in more than a third of the Senate seats up Tuesday are considered safe.

At least two open Democratic seats -- North Dakota, where Gov. John Hoeven is running virtually unopposed, and Indiana, where former GOP senator Dan Coats holds a comfortable lead -- have all but been transferred to the Republican column. Republican seats in Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire are likely to stay red.

Here, from east to west as polling places close, is a rundown of races to watch:

Connecticut and West Virginia will offer clues to which party will control the Senate when the night is over and whether the much-heralded Republican wave crested too soon.

In Connecticut, Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has rebounded from damaging revelations about his puffed-up Vietnam War service to take a lead over Republican Linda McMahon, the former wrestling mogul who's taken some body blows over her treatment of pro wrestlers.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin was the heir apparent when Democratic legend Robert Byrd died in June. But an electorate that rejected Barack Obama in 2008 has been receptive to Republican businessman John Raese's message that Manchin will be a rubber stamp while Raese is the "Nobama" candidate. The special election had been rated a toss-up but has moved in Manchin's direction in the final days.

Congressman Joe Sestak bucked his party's establishment to take on five-term incumbent and former Republican Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Sestak won but now is in a bruising battle with GOP nominee Pat Toomey for a seat that normally would shade blue but this year appears to be turning red.

Florida could have bragging rights to the first senator from the tea party if Republican Marco Rubio maintains his growing double-digit lead. Gov. Charlie Crist, who entered the race as an independent after losing the GOP primary, has been unable to catch up in the three-way contest. Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek has denied reports that former President Bill Clinton asked him to drop his struggling third-place campaign and throw his support to Crist. Meek refused and it was unclear whether a statement late last week by a Crist adviser that the independent would caucus with Senate Democrats if elected would persuade enough anti-tea party Democrats to hold their nose and vote for the governor.

Another tea party candidate, Rand Paul, was having a tougher time in Kentucky until his Democratic opponent Jack Conway possibly overstepped the bounds with a campaign ad attacking the Republican for his "Aqua Buddha" college prank. The spot appears to have backfired and allowed Paul to open up a wide lead in polls.

Rounding out the eastern time zone is Delaware, home to one of the most entertaining Senate races this year. Once a slam-dunk for Republicans eager to swipe Vice President Biden's old seat with moderate Rep. Mike Castle, the presumed nominee, the race was upended when perennial candidate Christine O'Donnell, a tea party favorite, pulled an upset in the primary. Democrat Chris Coons, the relatively colorless New Castle county executive, is now the heavy favorite in a bewitching campaign full of speech sometimes free of facts. But O'Donnell insists the race is closer than pundits predict.

Republicans still have a chance for another trophy in Illinois, where Republican Rep. Mark Kirk hopes to snag President Obama's old Senate seat. He'll have to defeat Democratic state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has been battered by sordid headlines about his family's troubled bank. The two have traded razor-thin leads all fall, but Kirk appeared to be pulling ahead in the final stretch.

Perhaps the biggest fish that could be washed away by a Republican wave is Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold. The three-term liberal populist, whose signature campaign-finance-reform law was recently gutted by the Supreme Court in a decision that opened the floodgates for corporate spending in this election, is behind tea party candidate Ron Johnson in every recent poll.

Prospects also look bleak for conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. She survived a strong primary challenge from the left only to hobble into the general election against GOP Congressman John Boozman. Political pundit Larry Sabato calls her "Dead Woman Walking."

Nothing much to see in the mountain time zone other than Colorado, where the race is tightening between appointed Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet and Republican tea party favorite Ken Buck. Recent polls had them statistically tied.

Moving west into Nevada brings into view the night's marquee race between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and tea party challenger Sharron Angle. Despite -- or more likely because of -- his powerful perch in Washington, Reid has been unable to shake Angle in spite of numerous controversies in her campaign. Now, though, one respected Las Vegas odds maker gives Reid a narrow lead based on early voting.

In California, Democratic Sen.Barbara Boxer appears to have shaken off former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and is favored to win in the blue-leaning state. Polls show independents, who elsewhere have gravitated toward the Republican column, consider Fiorina, who has sought tea party support, too conservative for California.

To the north in Washington state, Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holds a thin lead over Republican Dino Rossi, who is trying to avoid becoming a three-time loser after two failed runs for governor. Both President Obama and the first lady have been out to campaign for Murray. That might be enough to help Murray eke out a small but winning margin.

Finally, there is Alaska, where incumbent Lisa Murkowski could become only the second senator, after Strom Thurmond in 1954, to be elected in a write-in campaign. Tea party insurgent Joe Miller, who thumped Murkowski in the Republican primary, had been favored in the three-way race with Democrat Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka. But ethics problems and missteps such as lauding East Germany's security apparatus and handcuffing a reporter have sent Miller's numbers south and buoyed Democratic hopes of an unlikely pickup in what promises to be a fitting nightcap to a wild Senate season.

More Information: News and Predictions on All Senate Races
Filed Under: 2010 Elections

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gambled6

I am so tired of parties fighting to get a seat in the senate or the house Re presentatives just to restore the rich and make the poor, destituded,yet they made Sarah Palin so rich, that she WILL run for the President of 2012. Did anyone ever find out why she really gave up the governor's seat in Alaska? I hope The Tea Party realize who they are endorsing. This is a being who looks for faults in her opponents but has broken every Human Morals in the book. Teenage Preganancy, no repect from daughter or her boyfriend(H.S. Dropout). Do they really want someone like this for their Spokeperson? Now, I know America needs a "Coffee Party."

November 02 2010 at 6:02 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
mhomi

I voted against Republicans messing with our social security, medicare, medicaid, VA benefits, finding a way to take us to another global war. I voted against the 35 tax cut for the richest of rich, in favor of common folks, I voted for health care for everyone and not for the ones who can afford it while they can keep a job. I voted for less guns in streets and for women right to choose, for women equal pay, for minimum wage, for unions who fought so hard to get work place adequately and reasonably comfortable for the labor force along with overtime pay, etc. I voted to keep the power of oil companies, banks, the Wall Street firms at check, and don't let them rape the middle class out of our hard earned money with gauging on oil prices, not paying the share of fees they have to pay the federal government to drill on federal land. I voted against wars in Iraq and Afghanistan when we have no clear goal or aim or ability to win. I voted against insurance companies deciding what drug my doctor can or cannot give me, I vote to keep America safe, I voted to keep us together and compromise for the good of all of us, and to take the nation forward. I voted against mingling church and government together or one group of religious believers trying to force their own values down my throat. It always starts with a good idea but ends with power we can't control. I voted for department of energy to remain as we need to move more and more to green energy, I voted for the department of education to remain because we need our kids highly educated and skilled to compete in ever competitive global economy against kids from other nations who currently are better educated than our kids and require 1/10 of wages our kids would need to survive. I voted for tax increases to help us pay for all the things that sets America apart from India, Egypt and China. I voted to give Mr. Obama whom we elected as our president only 24 months ago, to have enough time to deliver the change we all voted for. I voted against bigotry, religious take over of our government, anti civil right movement and I voted for America moving into 21st century the right way. Yes I am an American and I voted for America. Pure and simple, free of any hangups and any influences and FOX NEWS.

November 02 2010 at 1:17 PM Report abuse -14 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to mhomi's comment
Russell

I voted with you!

November 03 2010 at 11:35 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
sirjohn1960

I am an American first.. Democrat or Republican mean nothing to me, but been turned off by all the hatred .. The tea party is a whole other story...I am almost ashamed at how my fellow Americans are acting during this election (and others)... Like spoiled children that need a huge time out.. Both sides carrying on about the other side losing track of the simple fact that they lose either way? No party can solve these problems..Only WE THE PEOPLE can...Not only by voting but by being UNITED instead of DIVIDED on everything... Everyone has the solution, and everyone can govern, everyone seems to think they can do a better job, and everyone knows better.. Phooey...Our system is set up so no one side can do anything without the other.. period..Our forefathers were smart enough to realize this and instill it in our laws.. And as no party will ever control everything, isn't it better if we learn to agree to disagree, and in a civil and adult manor learn to work together to solve what's wrong instead of name calling and ridicule on both sides.. Shame..... Well educated people acting like compete fools...Very Sad... How could anyone solve the Vast Magnitude of problems in 2 years is beyond me regardless of being Demo or Repub. Change takes time, well more than just a mere 2 years. Not sticking up for Obama, but he is the president and I respect that, and his time will eventually end, and I will respect the next person as well because he is our leader, regardless of Red or Blue..When you disrespect our President you spit on our nation and show a petty example of how we are as a nation... EXAMPLE, could you Grade a college student on his first 2 years for his entire tenure in college? . Why anyone would want someone to die for lack of health care is also beyond me. Would you or anyone be happy to see your neighbor die for lack of coverage? lf he cannot afford it too bad? Hurray for me and screw you>?? Should the Top 1% pay less taxes than everyone else? This is not a redistribution of wealth just an EVEN distribution of money that should have been collected in the first place without all the fancy tax loopholes. Doesn't anyone care about their fellow Americans.. Nothing is this world is perfect, and never will be.. We should not be concerned about party but about our lives, and rights and future.. Tax imports, create jobs here, create technology that would improve everyone's lives and boost our economy.. UNITED WE STAND.. A simple concept but out of the grasp of people who just seem to care about a party rather than a nation...Doesn't everyone understand that if we keep this up there will be a revolution here, people killing each other over Blue or Red...Who the hell wins then? So concerned about your children getting a germ or washing their hands, how will you feel when they cannot leave the house, if you even have a house to live in.. What the heck is wrong with everyone? Our problems are vast, and cannot be solved by either party, only a UNITED effort with agreement towards a common good for all.. This entire process is petty and our media stokes the fire even more with a sad and dismal outcome.. NO ONE WINS... Childish, if I cannot play with it no one can... Wow.. Is this what we have come to as a nation? I am ashamed...

November 02 2010 at 1:09 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
ktownsmarty

A pretty little girl named Suzy was standing on the sidewalk in front of her home. Next to her was a basket containing a number tiny creatures; in her hand was a sign announcing FREE KITTENS. Suddenly a line of big black cars pulled up beside her. Out of the lead car stepped a tall, grinning man. Hi there, little girl, Im President Obama. What do you have in the basket? he asked. Kittens. Little Suzy said. How old are they? asked Obama. Suzy replied, Theyre so young, their eyes arent even open yet. And what kind of kittens are they? Democrats, answered Suzy with a smile. Obama was delighted. As soon as he returned to his car, he called his PR chief and told him about the little girl and the kittens. Recognizing the perfect photo op, the two men agreed that the president should return the next day, and, in front of the assembled media, have the girl talk about her discerning kittens. So the next day, Suzy was again standing on the sidewalk with her basket of FREE KITTENS when another motorcade pulled up, this time followed by vans from ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN (no FOX NEWS of course). Cameras and audio equipment were quickly set up, then Obama got out of his limo and walked over to little Suzy... Hello, again, he said, Id love it if you would tell all my friends out there what kind of kittens youre giving away. Yes sir, Suzy said. Theyre Republicans. Taken by surprise, the president stammered, But... but.... yesterday, you told me they were DEMOCRATS. Little Suzy smiled and said, I know. But today, they have their eyes open.

October 29 2010 at 1:07 PM Report abuse +17 rate up rate down Reply
mac2jr

The USA are in trouble since we seem to fail to grasp the situation, that being that the population will double and therefore, we will need double the number of non-existent jobs within the next 20 or so years. President Obama sees this and for over two years now has been trying to get American to Wake Up and get busy doing the things that WILL provide American jobs for Americans, namely jobs of the future that should have been here now. Transportation for the replacement of the automobile and trunk industry that use oil and pollutes. Energy for generation of heat and light that currently use oil, coal, nuclear, and other polluting sources. Food for the masses that can be grown free of chemicals that poison our water, our lands, and our bodies. Medicines that are affordable to the masses and have little to no side effects. Medical services for everyone, not just the rich and the well-insured. Space travel to planets that we will some day have to populate. The resentment against President Obama and his Administration is one of the worse seen against an Elected President since that against Roosevelt and Eisenhower, both men who had the vision and pushed, dragged, and shamed this country into doing the right things that eventually proved to be the things that make America great.

October 29 2010 at 10:08 AM Report abuse -15 rate up rate down Reply
mac2jr

NAFTA is not sending our jobs overseas.. Some of you should start looking at the various trade agreements and who created each and who voted for each, you may find that the Chinese agreements were made by R. M. Nixon, and for the most part several of the agreements were the product of the Republican Party, Oil Companies, and Businesses. Unions and middle-class workers seldom create agreements with foreign countries. Wake up America.

October 29 2010 at 10:01 AM Report abuse -15 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to mac2jr's comment
Kenneth

Your post is 100% wrong. Nafta is the main cause of jobs leaving this country. Bringing crap in here from other countries without customs taxing and VAT taxes applied allows these good to be sold in the same stores as American made products. American based companies can not compete with these imports. All the taxes and expenses not including labor make it impossible to compete. Our government has gone out of their way to aid the economies of other countries while killing ours. Between giving countries handouts(foreign aid) and allowing their junk in this country duty free is this counties main problem.

November 02 2010 at 12:05 PM Report abuse +14 rate up rate down Reply
John and Anne

WOW....all I can say is people need to do their homework and some research. If people seriously think the economy and this country is doing so great, then I want their bank accounts. Umm, yeah people that are welfare are doing MUCH better, but anyone above that are not; unless you are a highly seated person in government. Even people that make a modest living are really feeling the pain. I'm what used to be called the middle class, but every day that goes by I feel like I'm sinking. taxes keep going up, charges for this and that..that goes where? to government re-distribution to pay for these darn programs. I'm just so sick of it! Cut government spending, I've had to cut WAy back on my spending. No vacations for us this year, just paying the bills; where every day increase, no eating out twice a month, I had to scrap my pennies just to visit my son stationed in Camp Lejeune! Come on people... WE THE PEOPLE. Pull the boot straps up, get some balls, and let Washington know we have had enough of increased taxes, the IRS (don't get me started on that freakin earned income credit!) more programs that use our tax dollars, etc. Let small businesses do what they do; grow and hire people and make our eceonomy grow..not penalize them for making a few bucks. OMG...I can go on and on. God bless us all, and may God watch over our military where-ever they may be...:)

October 29 2010 at 9:53 AM Report abuse +19 rate up rate down Reply
ktownsmarty

If a Republican doesnt like guns, he doesnt buy one.  If a Democrat doesnt like guns, he wants all guns outlawed. If a Republican is a vegetarian, he doesnt eat meat.  If a Democrat is a vegetarian, he wants all meat products banned for everyone.    If a Republican is homosexual, he quietly leads his life.  If a Democrat is homosexual, he demands legislated respect.    If a Republican is down-and-out, he thinks about how to better his situation.  A Democrat wonders who is going to take care of him.    If a Republican doesnt like a talk show host, he switches channels.  Democrats demand that those they dont like be shut down.    If a Republican is a non-believer, he doesnt go to church.  A Democrat non-believer wants any mention of God and religion silenced. If a Republican decides he needs health care, he goes about shopping for it, or may choose a job that provides it.  A Democrat demands that the rest of us pay for his.   

October 29 2010 at 9:47 AM Report abuse +24 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to ktownsmarty's comment
Ed

I'm a Democrat and I own five guns, and I'm planning on getting at least one more in the near future but I don't have any problem with gun control laws just because they make me wait a few days longer and see nothing wrong with doing everything possible to keep criminals from buying guns legally. Yes, I realize that a lot of those criminals would get guns illegally if they couldn't get them legally, but why would anybody want to make it easier for them to get? Tougher gun laws could also put some teeth onto the laws that punish folks who illegally sell guns, which should at least put a damper damper the illegal gun market. The only people likely to suffer anything more than waiting a few extra days to get their guns if we toughen gun laws should be criminals and the folks who make money selling to criminals. To me it looks like that the NRA is being used as a tool of the gun industry (and some politicians) more than a friend of legal gun owners on this issue. The funny thing is that it's the nominal law and order crowd that's going against the majority of police departments on this issue.

November 02 2010 at 11:49 AM Report abuse -7 rate up rate down Reply
Ed

By the way, you say that that if a Republican is a believer he goes to church. NOBODY is trying to get God out of churches.

November 02 2010 at 11:50 AM Report abuse -6 rate up rate down Reply
honey/vinegar

ktownsmarty....EXCELLENT post and information, was well worth the time to read. Therein lies the problem. It takes a little work and time to read the information, so the Dems posting right now will pass it by. They don't like to work and learn, just spew misinformation.

October 29 2010 at 9:38 AM Report abuse +19 rate up rate down Reply
paper7559

I have a hard time having any respect for a president who refuses to either salute or put his hand over his heart during the national anthem, as many pictures have shown. As well as not honoring the national day of prayer at the White House, but turns around and honors the Muslim prayer event at the White House and also kneels with them. To each his own where religion is concerned. But remember this country was founded on Christian values, and by Christians. I find his actions to be a total disrespect to all Americans,Veterans,and our men and women currently serving.

October 29 2010 at 9:29 AM Report abuse +21 rate up rate down Reply

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