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Energized Voters and Backing of Independents Put GOP Out in Front, Poll Says

1 year ago
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Another major poll Sunday showed Republicans holding a big enough lead to enable them to recapture the House in Tuesday's elections, thanks to more enthusiasm among their supporters and a sharp swing to the GOP by independents.

The Republicans hold a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage over the Democrats when it comes to who voters say they will support in their districts, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 27-30. In Pew's last poll in mid-October, the Republican margin was 50 percent to 40 percent.

The overall result was the same as a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. Both polls showed Democrats gaining a bit as Election Day neared, but it did not appear to be anywhere near enough to change the trajectory of the campaign. A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted Oct. 27-30, gave the Republicans a 52 percent to 42 percent advantage with 4 percent liking neither and 2 percent having no opinion.

"The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge," Pew said.

The poll said that remaining voters who are still uncertain or undecided do not favor either party.

While the late House Speaker Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill famously once said that "all politics is local," the Pew survey suggested this campaign has been nationalized. Sixty-two percent say that which party controls Congress will be a factor in how they vote. About the same number of registered voters held this view in 2006. That compares to 2002 when 48 percent said party control was a factor.

The "enthusiasm gap" is underlined by the contrast between the lead Republicans enjoy among the voters most likely to go to the polls and the result when all registered voters are asked their preferences. The result for all registered voters favors the Democrats by 44 percent to 43 percent.

Seventy percent of Republicans say they have given a lot of thought to the election compared to 55 percent for Democrats. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting compared to 41 percent of Democrats who feel that way.

Pew said that the 70 percent number for Republicans who have given a lot of thought to the election is the "highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles."

Just as strikingly, independents are backing the Republican candidate by 45 percent to 32 percent, with 24 percent undecided. When the Democrats recaptured the House in 2006, they outpolled the Republicans among independents by 42 percent to 35 percent, with 23 percent undecided.

Thirty-eight percent of voters say the job situation will be the most important factor in how they vote, followed by 24 percent who are motivated by health care as the top concern and 19 percent who name the deficit as the biggest issue.

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262 Comments

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Corey's kingdom

For eight years George Bush and the Republicans spent the US into a economic freefall. Common sense does not seem to enter the American voters minds so I guess the rest of us will have to suffer again. There is no way for them to do the things they promised you. After almost two years of saying No to everything, what are they going to do for you now?. I hope I'm wrong. I don't think so.

November 03 2010 at 5:29 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
dunkirk28

So when the right takes control during the midterms does that mean I should expect everything to be fixed by February? it seems when they lost control of the house and senate they expected all the fixes to be in place the day after Obama took office, Im pretty certain we will now be hearing a long litany of whining from the republicans about how they cant do anything, its going to take longer to fix etc etc etc. The scary part is they are proposing doing nothing different from what they always propose and continue to do the same things that caused the mess in the first place. How long does it take America to learn?

November 02 2010 at 1:02 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
mdbobkissesgwass

Toomey and Corbett really look like wack jobs on something. Corbett is salivating for a win, but the Pennsylvanians supporting him must have a screw loose because surely he does. Toomby--is he a standin for that Laurel and Hardy guy.

November 02 2010 at 12:44 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
teaforme1234

Phil Ryan I will answer your question - Because the people know the Republicans did not put us in this mess. Obama and the Democrats did. Obama failed by not doing what the people want. Obama had his own agenda. A majority of people do not want what Obama, Pelosi, and Reid and the Democrats pushed through without reading or even discussing with the American people. Nobody cared to find out what the people wanted. Now the people will speak tomorrow.

November 01 2010 at 8:12 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to teaforme1234's comment
suds1130

Without reading or even discussing? The bill was publicly available- why did you fail to read it? The economic crisis began when the Clinton surplus was dismantled by 2 needless wars and the tax cuts for the wealthy. Our tax burden now that we complain so loudly about is less than it was under Eisenhower. Tell me what is good about telling kids with pre-existing conditions they can't get insurance, about insurance companies sitting as judge and jury on denying "experimental" treatment, about lifetime limits (which two of our dear Republican friends with critical illnesses can now see on the not so distant horizon). Tell me what is good about being the only Western country to have people going broke because they can't get essential medical treatment. I tire of the aggressive and prideful ignorance that throws platitudes around, but has never talked to much less researched how national health care systems actually work in the countries that have them. You are being played like a violin by large monied interests who have a lot invested in the current dysfunctional system.

November 02 2010 at 7:51 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
actionhero

Mr. Ryan, no need to debate the wisdom of the democratically controlled house, senate and white house. It's as simple as this.....Does the math work?

November 01 2010 at 7:14 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
phil ryan

The question I would ask is this: Republicans are not popular, in fact in polls they are less popular than democrats -- though neither of them cover themselves with glory with the public. Why would the electorateput the party that brought us this enconomic mess in the first place back into power? I simply do not get it. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It has about as much logic as a kid murdering his parents and then asking the court to have mercy on him because he's an orphan. They've blocked, stalled and generally obstructed Obama every step of the way -- on ANYTHING. Even moderate run of the mill garden variety stuff they've blocked. And they get rewarded for obstruction. They want Obama to fail. And apparently the electorate agrees with them.

November 01 2010 at 3:05 PM Report abuse -10 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to phil ryan's comment
suds1130

Because, sadly,the general mass of the electorate is not very thoughtful and wants an "instant fix". There is a lot of prideful ignorance abounding these days, and they own an entire network on top of it.

November 02 2010 at 7:53 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Patriotic Paul

What is truly amazing about this midterm election is the facts reported by our corporaTE CONTROLLED MEDIA AT LEAST FOUR MONTHS AGO THAT THE gop WILL WIN THE HOUSE. tRULY A FEAT OF MAGNIFICENT FORTUNE TELLING OR A PREORDAINED CONCLUSION TO A CORPORATE CONTROLLED ELECTION PROCESS. THE THINGS THAT MAKE YA GO HMMM? VOTE THEM ALL OUT THEN VOTE THEM OUT AGAIN.

November 01 2010 at 1:45 PM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
RonRuthNik

They'll win ONLY if the Democrat voters fail to show up. Common sense & rationality are still the most poppular ways of existing, and as such, outnumber the irresponsible & economic debauchery ways of the Republicans. The tea party is a collection of "Mad Hatters" from Alice in Wonderland lore. Given the terror the news organizations are putting into the general populace predicting a GOP landslide, the Democrats might just show up. Don't count things as a victory quite yet.... BTW, I'M VOTING!!

November 01 2010 at 12:33 PM Report abuse -14 rate up rate down Reply
peacemandek

america has lost it's way, we the people are going to put back the party that cause the problem in the first place.we have such short memories. we elected Obama because the republicans screwed every thing up and they had 12 years to do it. do you really think they are going to fix anything? no they will start where they left off,they do not care about america or it's people.they truely are the party of no to the middle class and yes to the rich. God help us.

November 01 2010 at 12:27 PM Report abuse -14 rate up rate down Reply
travnash100

No matter the political affiliation, politicians are all corrupt and only make empty promises on the campaign trail. Just look at Obama. He made promise after promise and had the American people all dazzle-eyed believing he had all the answers. He wasted $780 billion dollars on a failed stimulus package. Sure he was able to get us out of Iraq, but he increased the war in Afghanistan. Nobody wanted the health-care overhall he shoved down the throat of the American people. Our children's children will be carrying the weight of his debt on their backs. I shudder to think of the life they'll have.

November 01 2010 at 11:44 AM Report abuse +23 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to travnash100's comment
suds1130

Well, FAUX news notwithstanding, the "failed" stimulus package kept us out of depression, something the majority of economists agree on. Second, your paycheck got a little larger because the promise of a tax cut was kept. Yes, most people agree that the current health care system is broke and will cost much more over the long run than the current health carte plan, and this notion that "nobody" wanted the current health care package is not true. If you "shudder" about the debt, where were you in the eight years the debt was run up? Have you written your Congressman to reduce the debt by rolling back tax cuts for Kim Kardashian and Paris Hilton and the FaceBook guy, which would go very far in reducing that debt?

November 02 2010 at 7:58 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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