Energized Voters and Backing of Independents Put GOP Out in Front, Poll Says
Bruce Drake
Contributing Editor
Posted:
10/31/10
Another major poll Sunday showed Republicans holding a big enough lead to enable them to recapture the House in Tuesday's elections, thanks to more enthusiasm among their supporters and a sharp swing to the GOP by independents.
The Republicans hold a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage over the Democrats when it comes to who voters say they will support in their districts, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 27-30. In Pew's last poll in mid-October, the Republican margin was 50 percent to 40 percent.
The overall result was the same as a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. Both polls showed Democrats gaining a bit as Election Day neared, but it did not appear to be anywhere near enough to change the trajectory of the campaign. A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted Oct. 27-30, gave the Republicans a 52 percent to 42 percent advantage with 4 percent liking neither and 2 percent having no opinion.
"The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge," Pew said.
The poll said that remaining voters who are still uncertain or undecided do not favor either party.
While the late House Speaker Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill famously once said that "all politics is local," the Pew survey suggested this campaign has been nationalized. Sixty-two percent say that which party controls Congress will be a factor in how they vote. About the same number of registered voters held this view in 2006. That compares to 2002 when 48 percent said party control was a factor.
The "enthusiasm gap" is underlined by the contrast between the lead Republicans enjoy among the voters most likely to go to the polls and the result when all registered voters are asked their preferences. The result for all registered voters favors the Democrats by 44 percent to 43 percent.
Seventy percent of Republicans say they have given a lot of thought to the election compared to 55 percent for Democrats. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting compared to 41 percent of Democrats who feel that way.
Pew said that the 70 percent number for Republicans who have given a lot of thought to the election is the "highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles."
Just as strikingly, independents are backing the Republican candidate by 45 percent to 32 percent, with 24 percent undecided. When the Democrats recaptured the House in 2006, they outpolled the Republicans among independents by 42 percent to 35 percent, with 23 percent undecided.
Thirty-eight percent of voters say the job situation will be the most important factor in how they vote, followed by 24 percent who are motivated by health care as the top concern and 19 percent who name the deficit as the biggest issue.
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The Republicans hold a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage over the Democrats when it comes to who voters say they will support in their districts, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 27-30. In Pew's last poll in mid-October, the Republican margin was 50 percent to 40 percent.
The overall result was the same as a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. Both polls showed Democrats gaining a bit as Election Day neared, but it did not appear to be anywhere near enough to change the trajectory of the campaign. A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted Oct. 27-30, gave the Republicans a 52 percent to 42 percent advantage with 4 percent liking neither and 2 percent having no opinion.
"The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge," Pew said.The poll said that remaining voters who are still uncertain or undecided do not favor either party.
While the late House Speaker Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill famously once said that "all politics is local," the Pew survey suggested this campaign has been nationalized. Sixty-two percent say that which party controls Congress will be a factor in how they vote. About the same number of registered voters held this view in 2006. That compares to 2002 when 48 percent said party control was a factor.
The "enthusiasm gap" is underlined by the contrast between the lead Republicans enjoy among the voters most likely to go to the polls and the result when all registered voters are asked their preferences. The result for all registered voters favors the Democrats by 44 percent to 43 percent.
Seventy percent of Republicans say they have given a lot of thought to the election compared to 55 percent for Democrats. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting compared to 41 percent of Democrats who feel that way.
Pew said that the 70 percent number for Republicans who have given a lot of thought to the election is the "highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles."
Just as strikingly, independents are backing the Republican candidate by 45 percent to 32 percent, with 24 percent undecided. When the Democrats recaptured the House in 2006, they outpolled the Republicans among independents by 42 percent to 35 percent, with 23 percent undecided.
Thirty-eight percent of voters say the job situation will be the most important factor in how they vote, followed by 24 percent who are motivated by health care as the top concern and 19 percent who name the deficit as the biggest issue.
Follow Poll Watch on Twitter
Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place
Read Politics Daily's 2010 Elections Round-Up