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Dawn breaks over New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 3. Democrats catching the early train to work are thinking about adding a little whiskey to their morning coffee. Because the headlines they are reading are truly terrible.Not only did Republicans take over the House, but they also did so going away - winning a net of 78 seats from Democrats.
WALLACE: Are you willing to predict -- are you willing to say right now, two days before, Democrats are going to hold onto the House?VAN HOLLEN: Yes. I believe Democrats are going to hold onto the House ...WALLACE: ... Let me just say -- I'll say it right now -- if you're right, a lot of the so-called experts are going to have plenty of egg on their faces Wednesday morning.VAN HOLLEN: You're right about that, and they've been proven wrong many times before, as you know, Chris.WALLACE: Absolutely. We'll know what to eat for breakfast.
Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
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