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Gallup's Final Midterm Poll: Republicans Poised to Retake the House

3 years ago
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Gallup has been doing the "generic" congressional ballot polls since 1946 with considerable success, so its likely voter result is always closely-watched. The numbers are only surprising given the size of the margin when taken together with all the other national polls this weekend: the Republicans have a 55 percent to 40 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided.
Gallup says that lead is "large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the House." The poll was conducted Oct. 28-31.
ElectionsPolling analyst Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight.com, ventured a Doomsday scenario for Democrats that could even be worse than that, (as have other handicappers who see the GOP winning far more than the bare number of seats needed for a majority). Here's Silver's "devil's advocate" hypothesis:
Dawn breaks over New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 3. Democrats catching the early train to work are thinking about adding a little whiskey to their morning coffee. Because the headlines they are reading are truly terrible.
Not only did Republicans take over the House, but they also did so going away - winning a net of 78 seats from Democrats.
We already reported on Sunday the other major polls -- like Washington Post/ABC News, the Pew Research Center and CNN/Opinion Research -- that show variations of the same result. Here's one more: the final Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has Republicans ahead by 49 percent to 43 percent when voters are asked whether they intend to support the Republican or Democrat in their district. As in some of the other polls, that's a bit small than the last one, but not by much.
All that brings to mind this exchange that Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace had with Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, (a bit abridged):
WALLACE: Are you willing to predict -- are you willing to say right now, two days before, Democrats are going to hold onto the House?
VAN HOLLEN: Yes. I believe Democrats are going to hold onto the House ...
WALLACE: ... Let me just say -- I'll say it right now -- if you're right, a lot of the so-called experts are going to have plenty of egg on their faces Wednesday morning.
VAN HOLLEN: You're right about that, and they've been proven wrong many times before, as you know, Chris.
WALLACE: Absolutely. We'll know what to eat for breakfast.
Gallup says of its poll: "While voter preferences could change in the final two days, perhaps resulting from Democrats' final push to motivate their base to turn out, voter preferences appear to be quite settled in this final post-Labor Day phase of the campaign." The pollster added:
Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
Gallup's prediction is based on a voter turnout of 45 percent, which the pollster says is slightly higher than recent years.

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251 Comments

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ialbel

Yes, Mr. President, we hear your beepers as you try to back up. However you pulled too far to the left and now you can't get your car to clear all the obstacles in D anymore. Carefully stay in R and maneuver around the cones put there by the American voters. The real problem here is that the rearend is faulty and will need to be replaced by 2012. This little repair job is just to patch things together until we can rip the bad piece out and replace it with something reliable. The lesson here is that a bad rearend can really disable the whole vehicle. Let's not use foreign made parts anymore and buy American in the future. The recall on this piece has already started in France and Greece and a few other places. Gee, we don't want to take a chance on these parts ever again.

November 02 2010 at 10:49 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
Bud

Is there other's or am i the onlyone who feels that something almost scary about what is taking place here.Its almost like Obama set up his fellow democrats to fail..he did absolutely nothing but tare the Country down..he went State by State as soon as he was sworn in and with a swipe of his pen..he cuts 10 of thousand of jobs in each State without a vote or meeting.He funded billion dollar bailouts for auto industry when people did not even have jobs to buy an auto.He took 6 vacations to other Countries as we lost 100,000 jobs a month and Forclosures so rapidly done that banks ended up Bankrupt cause they could not sell the houses they repoed.Is it just me or do any of you feel we are being set up for Hell to break loose upon us ?...Im a Republican i should be happy-But Something is telling me that everything going on is very Bad.

November 02 2010 at 3:14 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
Lesco Electric

As a business owner, I have found the best way to get our country back is to have people that run for office to believe in and do what the average American would like to see happen. With this being said, I feel that if some people would run for office with the agenda of whats good for the goose is good for the gander would surly be elected. I mean an agenda with bills to 1) require the politicians to be on the same tax, social security program and health system as the people 2) close the borders to everyone that is not an American citizen 3) quit giving moneys to the world when we need it at home 4) quit feeling sorry about the worlds problems until our own problems are solved 5) get the government out of the personal lives of the American people and 6) the most important... if they don't uphold our constitution, then they are not allowed to serve in office. With an agenda like this we would not need different parties in our politics. The only incentive to hold office then would be the fact of wanting to serve our country in the capacity to help the people that we call WE THE PEOPLE!

November 02 2010 at 2:33 AM Report abuse +7 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Lesco Electric's comment
gsandersjr

well said

November 02 2010 at 1:52 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
CnOWrms1

By this time tomorrow, we will know if the nation can be saved or not, if we will have enough republicans positioned to undo what the left has done and tried to do to us all.

November 02 2010 at 12:28 AM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
keyingatmach5

Hey, people are still out of work, medical is skyrocketing for out of work people, who tried to find a job. Money is being thrown out at a fast pase and it has to come from somewhere back. Guess who? You and me. This country is in major trouble and Obama twists and spins it to his liking. Tomorrow you can make a difference, this is your time to voice to Washington, hey we are Americans and we want a free society. Vote them out.

November 01 2010 at 11:55 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
rocknrollvixen80

Oh Congress on your way out with the pink slip, try to get private medical for yourself. Boo Ya, you can't because Obama did not give us a choice, so your going to get Obamacare with a bandaid. I'm not sorry at all, I'm mad as heck with the increase I rec'd. Thanks for nothing Obama. Great Help!

November 01 2010 at 11:48 PM Report abuse +10 rate up rate down Reply
rocknrollvixen80

Ciao, Adios, Be Careful What you wished for. The cradle will rock. Now the tide is turning. I'm proud of the Americans thinking this time. Obama and team need a pink slip. First start Tuesday.

November 01 2010 at 11:46 PM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
rocknrollvixen80

Lets go, lets get America back to freedom. Vote out Reid and Pelosi

November 01 2010 at 11:43 PM Report abuse +9 rate up rate down Reply
Holly

Unbelievable

November 01 2010 at 11:20 PM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
evnsaffl

So, where are the jobs? Obama can smirk and swagger all he wants, but =================WHERE ARE THE JOBS???

November 01 2010 at 9:21 PM Report abuse +9 rate up rate down Reply

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