AOL News has a new home! The Huffington Post.
Click here to visit the new home of Politics Daily!Hot on HuffPost:
Tea Party Favorite Officially Nominated In Contentious Race
What Went Wrong? Gallup Shares New Details
Latest Polls on Key Governor and Senate Races
2 years ago
Our weekend roundup of polls on key governor and Senate races updates Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
Public Policy Polling has disgorged a mountain of new surveys today which, if they prove accurate, have some big news in the final days of the midterm election campaign.
The three latest show:
-- West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin in the lead to fill the Senate seat of the late Robert Byrd.
-- Democrat Joe Sestak falling short in his bid to overtake Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
-- Republican Rand Paul headed for a "blowout" win in Kentucky.
Two other PPP surveys showed a down-to-the-finish-line contest in Ohio where Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is trying to hold on to his job in the face of a challenge from former Republican Rep. John Kasich, and in Connecticut, where there is a close contest between Democrat Dan Malloy and Republican Tom Foley to fill the governor's seat that is currently in GOP hands.
The Ohio race has attracted particular national attention given the state's stature as a political bellwether. Strickland has struggled all year in the polls, suffering like many governors, the low approval ratings that come along with a battered economy. PPP's new poll has him within one point of Kasich.
In Connecticut, Malloy, the mayor of Stamford, had generally been leading in the polls, but PPP's latest survey shows businessman and former ambassador Tom Foley ahead, although by a statistically-insignificant margin.
Ironically, in both of these states, the Senate races appear to be runaways with Republican Rob Portman way ahead of Democrat Lee Fisher in the contest to fill the seat of the GOP's George Voinovich, and Democrat Richard Blumenthal leading Republican Linda McMahon in his effort to hold Christopher Dodd's seat.
The Minnesota governor's race between Democrat Mark Dayton, a former senator, and Republican state Sen. Tom Emmer also looks close with the approach of Tuesday.
Check back here for more updates throughout the day.
Arizona
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican John McCain leads Democrat Rodney Glassman in the Senate race by 52 percent to 32 percent, with 9 percent preferring some other candidate and 7 percent undecided. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 28).
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican incumbent Jan Brewer leads Democrat Terry Goddard in the governor's race by 53 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent preferring some other candidate and 1 percent undecided. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 28)
Alaska
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
A new poll by Hays Research of the Alaska Senate race doesn't plug in incumbent Lisa Murkowski by name, but "write-in candidate" -- which is how she's running after her defeat in the GOP primary -- leads the field with 34 percent. Democrat Scott McAdams runs second at 29 percent, and Republican nominee Joe Miller at 23 percent with 13 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 25-26 and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.
Murkowski is viewed favorably by 55 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent, with 3 percent having no opinion. Miller is seen unfavorably by 68 percent -- with 60 percent viewing him "very" unfavorably -- while 26 percent have a positive view, with 5 percent undecided or not having heard of him. Fifty-five percent see McAdams favorably while 23 percent see him unfavorably, but 21 percent have no opinion of him or never heard of him.
Arizona
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican incumbent Jan Brewer is leading Democrat Terry Goddard, the state's attorney general, in the governor's race by 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 23-24.
The same poll shows Sen. John McCain leading Democrat Rodney Glassman by 56 percent to 38 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Arkansas
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican John Boozman leads Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the Senate race by 55 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Boozman leads Lincoln in the Senate race by 48 percent to 36 percent with 16 percent undecided, according to a University of Arkansas poll conducted Oct. 8-20.
Poll director Janine Parry said, "This election, as always in Arkansas, lies in the hands of people not closely aligned with either major party. Both parties are losing loyalists in a rough economy, meaning the percentage of unaffiliated respondents has swelled to the largest proportion we've recorded."
Forty-four percent of those identifying themselves as independents felt closer to the Republican party and, when it comes to those who are likely voters, the number rises to 50 percent. Only 21 percent of independents and 16 percent of very likely independent voters favored the Democratic Party, according to the poll.
California
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided, according to a Field Poll conducted Oct. 20-26. The margin of error is 3.2 points. Boxer had led by 47 percent to 41 percent in Field's September poll.
Democrat Jerry Brown is leading Republican Meg Whitman by 49 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Brown's margin in this poll was 48 percent to 42 percent.
Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 27, says Boxer leads Fiorina by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 point.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Brown leads Whitman by 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided or preferring other candidates, according to a Field Poll conducted Oct. 14-26. The margin of error is 3.2 points. Field says Brown is shoring up his support among women, nonpartisans and Latinos.
Boxer leads Fiorina by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent favoring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Boxer led 48 percent to 46 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 27)
Colorado
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet in the Senate race by 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. The poll says, "Almost half of registered voters in Colorado -- 48 percent -- are very enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday. Conservatives are more enthusiastic than liberals. Republicans are slightly more so than Democrats."
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Democrat John Hickenlooper leads American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo by 47 percent to 42 percent in the governor's race, with 5 percent for Republican Dan Maes, 6 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28. The margin of error is 4 points. On Oct. 14, Hickenlooper led Tancredo by 42 percent to 38 percent.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Buck leads Bennet in the Senate race by 48 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 14 poll, Buck had led 47 percent to 45 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 25).
Connecticut
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Tom Foley is in a close contest with Democrat Dan Malloy to fill the governorship now held by the GOP's Jodi Rell, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. Foley is leading Malloy by a statistically-insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.6 points.
"A look inside the numbers makes it clear that attacks on Malloy, rather than an increase in voter affection toward Foley, are what has made this race so competitive in the final days," said PPP. At the beginning of the month, voters had viewed Malloy favorably by a 50 percent to 29 percent margin with the remainder not sure. In the new poll, 40 percent see him unfavorably while 39 percent see him favorably, with the remainder not sure. Foley is seen favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent, with 21 percent not sure. Foley has a double-digit lead among independents who make up 31 percent of the sample.
In the Senate race, Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon by 54 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Independents are split in the Senate race. "A lot of indys in Connecticut are clearly planning to vote a Blumenthal/Foley ticket," PPP said.
Delaware
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican Christine O'Donnell in the Senate race by 51 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent favoring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Monmouth University poll conducted Oct. 25-27. The margin of error is 2.p points. Two weeks ago in this poll, Coons had led by 57 percent to 38 percent. Monmouth's Patrick Murray said, ""While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O'Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post."
Coons is leading O'Donnell by 57 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Oct. 20-26. Forty-eight percent see Coons favorably, 36 percent view him unfavorably with 13 percent not sure or having no opinion. O'Donnell is seen unfavorably by 54 percent (with 44 percent seeing her "very" unfavorably) while 34 percent see her favorably, with 12 percent not sure or having no opinion.
Florida
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Rick Scott is leading Democrat Alex Sink in the governor's race by 44 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent not liking either candidate and 11 percent undecided, according to a University of South Florida Polytechnic poll conducted Oct. 23-27 for New York Times-owned newspapers in the state. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican Marco Rubio leads the three-way Senate race with 50 percent followed by independent Charlie Crist at 30 percent and Democrat Kendrick Meek at 16 percent, with 4 percent undecided or for some other candidate. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 27).
Rubio leads Crist in the Senate race by 45 percent to 28 percent with Meek at 21 percent, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for Florida news organizations. Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker said, "There is simply no mathematical formula by which Crist or Meek can approach Rubio's 45 percent support level."
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Sink has a slight lead over Scott in a close contest for governor, while Crist has cut into Rubio's lead in the state's Senate race but not enough challenge Rubio's status as the favorite, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24. Sink, the state's chief financial officer, leads Scott, the wealthy former health care executive, by 45 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. Rubio leads Crist by 42 percent to 35 percent with 15 percent for Meek and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. (See full article).
Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 27, has Scott ahead by 48 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Scott had led by 50 percent to 44 percent in Rasmussen's Oct. 18 poll.
A Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 18-24 has Sink leading Scott 46 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring another candidate and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Georgia
POLLS FROM TUESDAY:
Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes 49 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian John Monds, 5 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. Deal slipped backed from the 50 percent mark he had hit in an Oct. 6 poll. If the winner doesn't notch 50 percent, it forces a run-off. Deal is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Barnes is seen unfavorably 53 percent compared to 40 percent who see him favorably, with 6 percent not sure. Deal has a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters.
A WSB-TV/InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 24 has Deal leading Barnes by 47 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent for Monds and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2 points.
Hawaii
POLLS FROM MONDAY:
Democrat Neil Abercrombie is leading Republican James "Duke" Aiona in the governor's race by 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. The outgoing governor is Republican Linda Lingle. (Honolulu Star Advertiser, Oct. 12-19).
Illinois
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 46 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent for Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, 5 percent for some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A week ago, Kirk led by 44 percent to 40 percent. The two haven't been separated by more than 4 points since the Labor Day start of the campaign season. Voters view both candidates unfavorably. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).
POLLS FROM TUESDAY:
Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the race for governor by 43 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for independent Scott Lee Cohen, 4 percent for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, 2 percent for Libertarian Lex Green and 6 percent undecided, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN poll conducted Oct. 18-22. The margin of error is 3.7 points. In the last poll about a month ago, Quinn had 39 percent to Brady's 38 percent.
The Tribune reports, "Much of Brady's advance may be due to a heavy dose of negative TV advertising against Quinn, largely funded through donations by the Republican Governors Association. Quinn has also aired his share of attack ads at Brady, but is outmatched in the money game."
One question is the impact of Cohen's small but noticeable amount of support in the race. Cohen had won the nomination to run as the Democrat's lieutenant governor candidate but dropped out after a series of damaging disclosures. He has spent almost $6 million of his own money on the race, the Tribune reports.
Almost a third of voters don't know enough about Brady to have an opinion of him. But if that's a disadvantage, Quinn suffers from the fact that 41 percent see him unfavorably compared to 34 percent who see him favorably. Quinn, of course, is the man who took over the governorship 21 months ago after the ignominious exist of Rod Blagojevich, who was impeached.
A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Brady ahead by 43 percent to 39 percent with Cohen at 6 percent, Whitney at 4 percent and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. In last week's poll, Brady led by 46 percent to 36 percent. Quinn's unfavorable number is high in this poll as well -- 52 percent view him negatively.
In the equally close Senate race, Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 43 percent to 41 percent with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 7 percent and 9 percent undecided, according to The Fox poll. The margin of error is 3 points. Kirk led last week by two points. Both Kirk and Giannoulias, each of whom has had to deal with damaging stories about their backgrounds, are regarded negatively by voters.
Indiana
POLLS FROM MONDAY:
Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats looks like a cinch to return to the Senate from Indiana, with a new poll showing him ahead of Democrat Brad Ellsworth by 53 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Rebecca Sink Burris at 5 percent and the remainder undecided. This is the seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. (EPIC-MRA, Oct. 19-21).
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 20 had Coats ahead by 52 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.
Kentucky
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Rand Paul has opened up a 55 percent to 40 percent lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the Senate race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. Five percent are undecided.
"Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one," PPP said. "That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul ... The shift is more a
reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days," in part due to a backlash against his ad depicting Paul as worshipping a deity named Aqua Buddha in his college days.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 has Paul leading Conway by 53 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to
SurveyUSA, in a poll conducted Oct. 24-27, has Paul leading by 52 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Paul has hit the 50 percent mark in his race against Conway who is attracting 43 percent of the vote, with 3 percent liking neither and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. Paul is leading among independents by 63 percent to 26 percent. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).
Maine
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 26-28 has Republican Paul LePage leading with 40 percent, followed by independent Eliot Cutler at 28 percent, Democrat Libby Mitchell at 24 percent, two other candidates splitting 5 percent and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. PPP says the "enthusiasm gap" is weighing heavily in LePage's favor and adds, ""Paul LePage looks like he'll waltz into office because the Democratic vote is being split too evenly between Eliot Cutler and Libby Mitchell."
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
LePage now is ahead with 40 percent, while Mitchell and Cutler are tied at 26 percent each, with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. In an Oct. 12 poll, LePage had led Mitchell by only 35 percent to 32 percent, with 21 percent for Cutler. While LePage gets 81 percent support from fellow Republicans, Mitchell is down to 48 percent backing from Democrats, with Cutler taking 37 percent of the Democratic votes. In the last poll, Mitchell still had 65 percent of the Democrats compared to 18 percent for Cutler. Cutler's background is as a Democrat, having served in the Carter administration and as an aide to the late Sen. Edmund Muskie. A LePage victory would mean a Republican pickup since the job is currently held by Democrat John Baldacci. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).
Maryland
POLLS FROM MONDAY
Democrat Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich by 54 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring another choice and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.5 points. In a Sept. 26 poll, O'Malley had led by 49 percent to 35 percent. Seven percent of Ehrlich supports and 6 percent of O'Malley backers say there is a good chance they might change their minds. O'Malley beats Ehrlich on the question of who "understands the problems of people like you" by 51 percent to 36 percent with the remainder undecided or in the "both/neither" column. (Washington Post, Oct. 19-22).
Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 24, has O'Malley ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Massachusetts
POLLS FROM SATURDAY:
Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker in the governor's race by 42 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent for independent Tim Cahill, 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 6 percent undecided or refused to respond. The margin of error is 5 points. (Western New England College Polling Institute, Oct. 24-28).
POLLS FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
There are two conflicting polls on the Massachusetts governor's race.
A Suffolk University/7News poll conducted Oct. 25-27 shows Patrick leading Baker by 46 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent for independent Cahill, 2 percent for Stein and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 shows Patrick ahead of Baker by just 46 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent for Cahill, 3 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Michigan
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican newcomer Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero in the governor's race by 53 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent undecided. Pollster Richard Czuba said, "There is a Republican tide in Michigan" that is also extending to down-ticket races. A Snyder victory would represent a GOP pickup of a governor's seat since the job is now held by Democrat Jennifer Granholm. (Detroit News/WDIV, Oct. 25-26).
Minnesota
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer in the governor's race by 43 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent for independent Tom Horner and 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.2 points.
PPP notes that none of the three candidates are in positive territory when it comes to their favorability ratings, and that "neither Dayton nor Emmer really has any crossover appeal."
"Minnesota's a Democratic state so if the Democratic candidate wins all the Democrats and the Republican candidate wins all the Republicans and the independents split pretty evenly the Democratic candidate's going to win. That's where the contest stands right now so Emmer will have to make up some ground in the final days if he's going to pull this one out."
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
In contrast to other polls, a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 24-27 finds a tight race between Dayton and Emmer, with Dayton leading Emmer by only 39 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent for independent Tom Horner and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Dayton, a former one-term senator, leads Emmer, a member of the state House, by 41 percent to 29 percent with 11 percent for independent Tom Horner and 20 percent undecided, according to a Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll conducted Oct. 21-25. In its September poll, Dayton had led Emmer by 38 percent to 27 percent, with Horner getting 16 percent.
MPR/Humphrey says one reason for Dayton's success compared to other states where there is a rising GOP tide is that when it comes to the engagement of voters, "the story is quite different in Minnesota." Democrats are matching Republicans as far as enthusiasm in this election. This is a chance for Democrats to make a gubernatorial pickup since the job is currently help by the GOP's Tim Pawlenty. Democrats have been shut out of the job since Rudy Perpich finished his two terms in 1991.
POLLS FROM SUNDAY:
Dayton leads Emmer by 41 percent to 34 percent followed by Horner, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points. (Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, Oct. 18-21).
Missouri
POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:
Republican Roy Blunt is leading Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Senate race by 49 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, KMOV, Oct. 18-20).
Blunt leads Carnahan by 52 percent to 43 percent, with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. Last week, Blunt led by about the same margin. The margin of error is 4 points. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19).
Blunt leads Carnahan 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Seven percent of those supporting each candidate say they could change their minds. The margin of error is 3 points. (Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 16).
New York
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino in the race for governor by 58 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to Siena Research Institute poll conducted Oct. 27-30.
Nevada
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Brian Sandoval leads Democrat Rory Reid in the governor's race by 54 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate, 2 percent liking none of the candidates and 4 percent undecided, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Sandoval is getting 90 percent support from fellow Republicans while Reid attracts support from only 74 percent of Democrats. Sandoval leads among independents by 61 percent to 29 percent with the remainder for other candidates or undecided.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican Sharron Angle leads Democrat Harry Reid in the Senate race by 49 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll. The margin of error is 5 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Sandoval leads Rory Reid, son of Harry, by 58 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. Sandoval has held double-digit leads over Reid in 16 matchups done by Rasmussen dating back to February.
Angle leads Reid by 49 percent to 45 percent in the Senate race with 2 percent for Scott Ashjian, who is running as a Tea Party candidate and 3 percent who don't like any of the choices. With Ashjian out of the race, Angle would be leading by 51 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).
New Hampshire
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by 56 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided in the race to fill the Senate seat of the GOP's Judd Gregg, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.7 points.
In the race for governor, Democrat John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen by 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided.
"Hodes never emerged as a strong candidate," PPP said. Fifty percent of voters see him unfavorably to only 34 percent who rate him in a positive light. Independents don't like him and the number of Democrats who dislike him is greater than the number of Republicans who do like him...Democrats are lucky John Lynch is so popular or else the GOP would be headed for a sweep in New Hampshire this year."
Democratic incumbent John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen in the governor's race by 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27.
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 26 showed Ayotte leading Hodes by 56 percent to 41 percent. Three percent support some other candidate or are undecided.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Ayotte leads Hodes in the race to fill the seat left open by the GOP's Judd Gregg by 56 percent to 41 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.7 points.
PPP's poll also shows Lynch running ahead of Stephen in the race for governor by 53 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
PPP's Dean Debnam said, "When Judd Gregg announced his retirement I don't think anyone could have imagined Republicans would retain his seat by such a large margin. Democrats are lucky John Lynch is so popular or else the GOP would be headed for a sweep in New Hampshire this year."
New Mexico
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican Susan Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish by 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. The gap between Martinez and Denish was about the same in two previous Rasmussen polls, putting the Republicans in a position to retake a governorship that is now held by Democrat Bill Richardson. Martinez is a district attorney and the first Hispanic woman to win a major party nomination for governor. Denish is lieutenant government, and Richardson's current unpopularity in the state -- 57 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as governor -- has been a drag on her.
New York
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
There's never been much doubt that, barring surprises, the Democrats in blue New York were going to withstand the Republican tide, and a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24 underlines the point, showing Democrat Andrew Cuomo ahead of Republican Carl Paladino by 55 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided in the governor's race, and first-term Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi by 57 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided in her bid for re-election.
North Carolina
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Democrat Elaine Marshall just hasn't been able to gain any traction in her challenge to first term Republican Sen. Richard Burr, even though several polls have shown him with lackluster job approval and favorability numbers with voters. The latest poll, conducted Oct. 22-25 by SurveyUSA, demonstrates that again, showing Burr ahead of her by 43 percent to 38 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian Michael Beitler and 3 percent undecided.
Ohio
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
The race for the governorship in Ohio has tightened considerably with Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland pulling to within one point of Republican John Kasich, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. The margin of error is 2.7 points.
Kasich now leads Strickland by 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
"What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home, PPP said. "He's now winning 87 percent of the Democratic vote, up from only 78 percent in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer."
Strickland made his gains despite the fact that voters disapprove of the job he is doing by 50 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent not sure of their opinion. Kasich isn't winning any popularity contests either: 43 percent see him favorably while 42 percent see him unfavorably, with 15 percent undecided.
PPP says, "If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents" among whom he has an 18 point lead over Strickland.
In the Senate race, PPP says Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 57 percent to 39 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Oct. 20-22 has Kasich ahead of Strickland 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. The same poll has Portman leading Fisher by 46 percent to 40 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher in the Senate race by 57 percent to 33 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 7 percent undecided. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26)
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican John Kasich leads Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland in the governor's race by 48 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In the previous poll, Kasich led by 48 percent to 45 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct.26).
A SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, has Kasich ahead by 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent for other candidates and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Kasich is leading among independents (22 percent of the sample) by 17 points.
In the Senate race, SurveyUSA says Portman leads Fisher by 52 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent for other candidates and 4 percent undecided.
Oregon
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democrat John Kitzhaber has pulled ahead of Republican Chris Dudley in the governor's race, leading him 48 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error is 4.2 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Two new polls show the governor's race between Republican newcomer Chris Dudley and Democrat John Kitzhaber to be a dead heat.
A poll by Davis, Hibbits & Migdall reported by the Portland Tribune conducted Oct. 24-25 has Dudley ahead of Kitzhaber by 46 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 points. The Tribune said, "In effect, Oregon voters haven't budged much since the May primary, despite more than $12 million in campaign spending by both sides."
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25 has Dudley leading Kitzhaber by 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 10 poll, Kitzhaber had led by 48 percent to 46 percent. Voters are divided at 42 percent each about whether they favor a candidate with political experience (Kitzhaber is a former two-term governor) or a candidate who has never held office, (Dudley is a former pro basketball player who went into financial consulting). Both candidates are seen favorably by voters. Dudley is doing better than Kitzhaber as far as the level of support from their respective parties, and has a modest lead among unaffiliated voters.
Pennsylvania
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
While other polls have shown Democrat Joe Sestak closing the gap, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31 has Republican Pat Toomey leading him by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. In the governor's race, Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onoraqto by 52 percent to 45 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
"Joe Sestak and Dan Onorato each made impressive comebacks but it looks like they'll end up falling short," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "That Barack Obama is such a liability in the state only two years after taking it by double digits says a lot about how much the political climate has shifted and his ability to gain back support in places like Pennsylvania will be key for his 2012 prospects."
The Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call daily tracking poll has Toomey leading Sestak by 45 percent to 43 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. That's the same margin Toomey held on the previous day when this survey began showing the tightening of this race. Toomey had led on five previous days by 5 points or more.
In the governor's race, the poll showed Corbett leading Onorato by 48 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. Corbett had been at the 50 percent mark or above on five previous days.
A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted Oct. 28, has Corbett leading Onorato by 52 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided.
A McClatchy/Marist Institute poll, conducted Oct. 26-28, shows a different result: Toomey leading 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 points.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 has Toomey leading Sestak by 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Rhode Island
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican-turned-independent John Chafee is in the lead in the governor's race with 33 percent, followed by Democrat Frank Caprio at 26 percent, Republican John Robitaille at 26 percent (rounded up from 25.5 percent) and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block at 4 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to a WPRI-TV poll conducted Oct. 2-15. The margin of error is 4.4 points.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Chafee is out in front in the four-way race for governor with 35 percent, followed by Robitaille at 28 percent, Caprio at 25 percent, Block at 2 percent and 10 percent undecided. Caprio had led Chafee in the last poll released Oct. 12, with Robitaille in third place. (NBC 10/Quest Research, Oct. 23-26).
POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:
Chafee leads Caprio 35 percent to 28 percent in the race for governor with 25 percent for Robitaille. Six percent back Block and 6 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 4 poll, Chafee had led Caprio by only 33 percent to 30 percent, with 22 percent for Robitaille. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21).
South Carolina
POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:
Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen by 51 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided. (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 19)
Haley is leading Sheheen by 47 percent to 38 percent in the race to succeed GOP Gov. Mark Sanford, with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. In a Sept. 22 poll, Haley had held a 50 percent to 33 percent margin. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19). See related story.
Texas
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican incumbent Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White by 53 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4.1 points. PPP notes that while White, the former mayor of Houston, has a more positive image than Perry, "it may be a classic case of the right candidate running in the wrong cycle ... To win as a Democrat in Texas you're going to have to win a fair amount of crossover support from Republican voters and in the end White just wasn't able to do it."
Vermont
Democrat Peter Shumlin, a state senator, leads Republican Brian Dubie, the lieutenant governor, in the governor's race by 50 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28. The margin of error is 4.5 points. The winning candidate must get 50 percent of the vote or the election goes to the Legislature to be decided. The governorship is currently held by Republican Jim Douglas, who is stepping down after four terms.
Washington
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democratic incumbent Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi are in a dead heat in the Senate race with Murray ahead by 49 percent to 48 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate or undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. Sixty-two percent of Republicans describe themselves as enthusiastic about voting compared to 52 percent of Democrats.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Murray and Rossi are tied at 47 percent each with 6 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 24-27. The margin of error is 3.8 points.
A KCTS9/WPLU poll released Friday has Murray leading Rossi by 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Rossi and Murray remain locked in a tight race, with Rossi ahead by 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
West Virginia
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Gov. Joe Manchin, one of the most popular Democrats of any of his counterparts in other states, leads Republican John Raese by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31. The margin of error is 2.4 points.
While PPP says that Manchin has been weighed down by voter disapproval of President Obama and national Democrats, his showing owes to several factors: Raese has not been a particularly appealing opponent, the "enthusiasm gap" between the parties is not as evident here, and Manchin "has made enough conservatives comfortable voting for him."
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Manchin leads Raese by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent favoring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Raese led by 50 percent to 43 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).
Wisconsin
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Ron Johnson is leading Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race by 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent favoring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4.5 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Republican Scott Walker, the Milwaukee county executive, is leading Democrat Tom Barrett, the Milwaukee mayor, by 52 percent to 42 percent in the race for governor, with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. This is the third poll since Sept. 29 where Walker has been at the crucial 50 percent mark or above. Walker benefits by getting 96 percent support from fellow Republicans while Barrett has 83 percent support from Democrats. Walker has a big advantage amo
Public Policy Polling has disgorged a mountain of new surveys today which, if they prove accurate, have some big news in the final days of the midterm election campaign.
The three latest show:
-- West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin in the lead to fill the Senate seat of the late Robert Byrd.
-- Democrat Joe Sestak falling short in his bid to overtake Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
-- Republican Rand Paul headed for a "blowout" win in Kentucky.
Two other PPP surveys showed a down-to-the-finish-line contest in Ohio where Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is trying to hold on to his job in the face of a challenge from former Republican Rep. John Kasich, and in Connecticut, where there is a close contest between Democrat Dan Malloy and Republican Tom Foley to fill the governor's seat that is currently in GOP hands.
The Ohio race has attracted particular national attention given the state's stature as a political bellwether. Strickland has struggled all year in the polls, suffering like many governors, the low approval ratings that come along with a battered economy. PPP's new poll has him within one point of Kasich.In Connecticut, Malloy, the mayor of Stamford, had generally been leading in the polls, but PPP's latest survey shows businessman and former ambassador Tom Foley ahead, although by a statistically-insignificant margin.
Ironically, in both of these states, the Senate races appear to be runaways with Republican Rob Portman way ahead of Democrat Lee Fisher in the contest to fill the seat of the GOP's George Voinovich, and Democrat Richard Blumenthal leading Republican Linda McMahon in his effort to hold Christopher Dodd's seat.
The Minnesota governor's race between Democrat Mark Dayton, a former senator, and Republican state Sen. Tom Emmer also looks close with the approach of Tuesday.
Check back here for more updates throughout the day.
Arizona
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican John McCain leads Democrat Rodney Glassman in the Senate race by 52 percent to 32 percent, with 9 percent preferring some other candidate and 7 percent undecided. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 28).
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican incumbent Jan Brewer leads Democrat Terry Goddard in the governor's race by 53 percent to 39 percent with 7 percent preferring some other candidate and 1 percent undecided. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 28)
Alaska
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
A new poll by Hays Research of the Alaska Senate race doesn't plug in incumbent Lisa Murkowski by name, but "write-in candidate" -- which is how she's running after her defeat in the GOP primary -- leads the field with 34 percent. Democrat Scott McAdams runs second at 29 percent, and Republican nominee Joe Miller at 23 percent with 13 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 25-26 and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.
Murkowski is viewed favorably by 55 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent, with 3 percent having no opinion. Miller is seen unfavorably by 68 percent -- with 60 percent viewing him "very" unfavorably -- while 26 percent have a positive view, with 5 percent undecided or not having heard of him. Fifty-five percent see McAdams favorably while 23 percent see him unfavorably, but 21 percent have no opinion of him or never heard of him.
Arizona
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican incumbent Jan Brewer is leading Democrat Terry Goddard, the state's attorney general, in the governor's race by 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 23-24.
The same poll shows Sen. John McCain leading Democrat Rodney Glassman by 56 percent to 38 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Arkansas
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican John Boozman leads Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the Senate race by 55 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Boozman leads Lincoln in the Senate race by 48 percent to 36 percent with 16 percent undecided, according to a University of Arkansas poll conducted Oct. 8-20.
Poll director Janine Parry said, "This election, as always in Arkansas, lies in the hands of people not closely aligned with either major party. Both parties are losing loyalists in a rough economy, meaning the percentage of unaffiliated respondents has swelled to the largest proportion we've recorded."
Forty-four percent of those identifying themselves as independents felt closer to the Republican party and, when it comes to those who are likely voters, the number rises to 50 percent. Only 21 percent of independents and 16 percent of very likely independent voters favored the Democratic Party, according to the poll.
California
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided, according to a Field Poll conducted Oct. 20-26. The margin of error is 3.2 points. Boxer had led by 47 percent to 41 percent in Field's September poll.
Democrat Jerry Brown is leading Republican Meg Whitman by 49 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Brown's margin in this poll was 48 percent to 42 percent.
Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 27, says Boxer leads Fiorina by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 point.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Brown leads Whitman by 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided or preferring other candidates, according to a Field Poll conducted Oct. 14-26. The margin of error is 3.2 points. Field says Brown is shoring up his support among women, nonpartisans and Latinos.
Boxer leads Fiorina by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent favoring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Boxer led 48 percent to 46 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 27)
Colorado
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet in the Senate race by 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. The poll says, "Almost half of registered voters in Colorado -- 48 percent -- are very enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday. Conservatives are more enthusiastic than liberals. Republicans are slightly more so than Democrats."
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Democrat John Hickenlooper leads American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo by 47 percent to 42 percent in the governor's race, with 5 percent for Republican Dan Maes, 6 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28. The margin of error is 4 points. On Oct. 14, Hickenlooper led Tancredo by 42 percent to 38 percent.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Buck leads Bennet in the Senate race by 48 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 14 poll, Buck had led 47 percent to 45 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 25).
Connecticut
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Tom Foley is in a close contest with Democrat Dan Malloy to fill the governorship now held by the GOP's Jodi Rell, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. Foley is leading Malloy by a statistically-insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.6 points.
"A look inside the numbers makes it clear that attacks on Malloy, rather than an increase in voter affection toward Foley, are what has made this race so competitive in the final days," said PPP. At the beginning of the month, voters had viewed Malloy favorably by a 50 percent to 29 percent margin with the remainder not sure. In the new poll, 40 percent see him unfavorably while 39 percent see him favorably, with the remainder not sure. Foley is seen favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent, with 21 percent not sure. Foley has a double-digit lead among independents who make up 31 percent of the sample.
In the Senate race, Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon by 54 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Independents are split in the Senate race. "A lot of indys in Connecticut are clearly planning to vote a Blumenthal/Foley ticket," PPP said.
Delaware
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican Christine O'Donnell in the Senate race by 51 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent favoring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Monmouth University poll conducted Oct. 25-27. The margin of error is 2.p points. Two weeks ago in this poll, Coons had led by 57 percent to 38 percent. Monmouth's Patrick Murray said, ""While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O'Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post."
Coons is leading O'Donnell by 57 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Oct. 20-26. Forty-eight percent see Coons favorably, 36 percent view him unfavorably with 13 percent not sure or having no opinion. O'Donnell is seen unfavorably by 54 percent (with 44 percent seeing her "very" unfavorably) while 34 percent see her favorably, with 12 percent not sure or having no opinion.
Florida
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Rick Scott is leading Democrat Alex Sink in the governor's race by 44 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent not liking either candidate and 11 percent undecided, according to a University of South Florida Polytechnic poll conducted Oct. 23-27 for New York Times-owned newspapers in the state. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican Marco Rubio leads the three-way Senate race with 50 percent followed by independent Charlie Crist at 30 percent and Democrat Kendrick Meek at 16 percent, with 4 percent undecided or for some other candidate. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 27).
Rubio leads Crist in the Senate race by 45 percent to 28 percent with Meek at 21 percent, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for Florida news organizations. Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker said, "There is simply no mathematical formula by which Crist or Meek can approach Rubio's 45 percent support level."
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Sink has a slight lead over Scott in a close contest for governor, while Crist has cut into Rubio's lead in the state's Senate race but not enough challenge Rubio's status as the favorite, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24. Sink, the state's chief financial officer, leads Scott, the wealthy former health care executive, by 45 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. Rubio leads Crist by 42 percent to 35 percent with 15 percent for Meek and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. (See full article).
Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 27, has Scott ahead by 48 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Scott had led by 50 percent to 44 percent in Rasmussen's Oct. 18 poll.
A Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 18-24 has Sink leading Scott 46 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring another candidate and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Georgia
POLLS FROM TUESDAY:
Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes 49 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian John Monds, 5 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. Deal slipped backed from the 50 percent mark he had hit in an Oct. 6 poll. If the winner doesn't notch 50 percent, it forces a run-off. Deal is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Barnes is seen unfavorably 53 percent compared to 40 percent who see him favorably, with 6 percent not sure. Deal has a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters.
A WSB-TV/InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 24 has Deal leading Barnes by 47 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent for Monds and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2 points.
Hawaii
POLLS FROM MONDAY:
Democrat Neil Abercrombie is leading Republican James "Duke" Aiona in the governor's race by 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. The outgoing governor is Republican Linda Lingle. (Honolulu Star Advertiser, Oct. 12-19).
Illinois
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 46 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent for Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, 5 percent for some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A week ago, Kirk led by 44 percent to 40 percent. The two haven't been separated by more than 4 points since the Labor Day start of the campaign season. Voters view both candidates unfavorably. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).
POLLS FROM TUESDAY:
Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the race for governor by 43 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent for independent Scott Lee Cohen, 4 percent for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, 2 percent for Libertarian Lex Green and 6 percent undecided, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN poll conducted Oct. 18-22. The margin of error is 3.7 points. In the last poll about a month ago, Quinn had 39 percent to Brady's 38 percent.
The Tribune reports, "Much of Brady's advance may be due to a heavy dose of negative TV advertising against Quinn, largely funded through donations by the Republican Governors Association. Quinn has also aired his share of attack ads at Brady, but is outmatched in the money game."
One question is the impact of Cohen's small but noticeable amount of support in the race. Cohen had won the nomination to run as the Democrat's lieutenant governor candidate but dropped out after a series of damaging disclosures. He has spent almost $6 million of his own money on the race, the Tribune reports.
Almost a third of voters don't know enough about Brady to have an opinion of him. But if that's a disadvantage, Quinn suffers from the fact that 41 percent see him unfavorably compared to 34 percent who see him favorably. Quinn, of course, is the man who took over the governorship 21 months ago after the ignominious exist of Rod Blagojevich, who was impeached.
A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23 has Brady ahead by 43 percent to 39 percent with Cohen at 6 percent, Whitney at 4 percent and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. In last week's poll, Brady led by 46 percent to 36 percent. Quinn's unfavorable number is high in this poll as well -- 52 percent view him negatively.
In the equally close Senate race, Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 43 percent to 41 percent with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 7 percent and 9 percent undecided, according to The Fox poll. The margin of error is 3 points. Kirk led last week by two points. Both Kirk and Giannoulias, each of whom has had to deal with damaging stories about their backgrounds, are regarded negatively by voters.
Indiana
POLLS FROM MONDAY:
Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats looks like a cinch to return to the Senate from Indiana, with a new poll showing him ahead of Democrat Brad Ellsworth by 53 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Rebecca Sink Burris at 5 percent and the remainder undecided. This is the seat being given up by Democrat Evan Bayh. (EPIC-MRA, Oct. 19-21).
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 20 had Coats ahead by 52 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.
Kentucky
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Rand Paul has opened up a 55 percent to 40 percent lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the Senate race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. Five percent are undecided.
"Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one," PPP said. "That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul ... The shift is more a
reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days," in part due to a backlash against his ad depicting Paul as worshipping a deity named Aqua Buddha in his college days.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 has Paul leading Conway by 53 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to
SurveyUSA, in a poll conducted Oct. 24-27, has Paul leading by 52 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Paul has hit the 50 percent mark in his race against Conway who is attracting 43 percent of the vote, with 3 percent liking neither and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. Paul is leading among independents by 63 percent to 26 percent. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).
Maine
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 26-28 has Republican Paul LePage leading with 40 percent, followed by independent Eliot Cutler at 28 percent, Democrat Libby Mitchell at 24 percent, two other candidates splitting 5 percent and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. PPP says the "enthusiasm gap" is weighing heavily in LePage's favor and adds, ""Paul LePage looks like he'll waltz into office because the Democratic vote is being split too evenly between Eliot Cutler and Libby Mitchell."
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
LePage now is ahead with 40 percent, while Mitchell and Cutler are tied at 26 percent each, with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. In an Oct. 12 poll, LePage had led Mitchell by only 35 percent to 32 percent, with 21 percent for Cutler. While LePage gets 81 percent support from fellow Republicans, Mitchell is down to 48 percent backing from Democrats, with Cutler taking 37 percent of the Democratic votes. In the last poll, Mitchell still had 65 percent of the Democrats compared to 18 percent for Cutler. Cutler's background is as a Democrat, having served in the Carter administration and as an aide to the late Sen. Edmund Muskie. A LePage victory would mean a Republican pickup since the job is currently held by Democrat John Baldacci. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).
Maryland
POLLS FROM MONDAY
Democrat Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich by 54 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring another choice and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.5 points. In a Sept. 26 poll, O'Malley had led by 49 percent to 35 percent. Seven percent of Ehrlich supports and 6 percent of O'Malley backers say there is a good chance they might change their minds. O'Malley beats Ehrlich on the question of who "understands the problems of people like you" by 51 percent to 36 percent with the remainder undecided or in the "both/neither" column. (Washington Post, Oct. 19-22).
Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 24, has O'Malley ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Massachusetts
POLLS FROM SATURDAY:
Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker in the governor's race by 42 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent for independent Tim Cahill, 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 6 percent undecided or refused to respond. The margin of error is 5 points. (Western New England College Polling Institute, Oct. 24-28).
POLLS FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
There are two conflicting polls on the Massachusetts governor's race.
A Suffolk University/7News poll conducted Oct. 25-27 shows Patrick leading Baker by 46 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent for independent Cahill, 2 percent for Stein and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 shows Patrick ahead of Baker by just 46 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent for Cahill, 3 percent for some other candidate and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Michigan
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican newcomer Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero in the governor's race by 53 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent undecided. Pollster Richard Czuba said, "There is a Republican tide in Michigan" that is also extending to down-ticket races. A Snyder victory would represent a GOP pickup of a governor's seat since the job is now held by Democrat Jennifer Granholm. (Detroit News/WDIV, Oct. 25-26).
Minnesota
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer in the governor's race by 43 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent for independent Tom Horner and 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.2 points.
PPP notes that none of the three candidates are in positive territory when it comes to their favorability ratings, and that "neither Dayton nor Emmer really has any crossover appeal."
"Minnesota's a Democratic state so if the Democratic candidate wins all the Democrats and the Republican candidate wins all the Republicans and the independents split pretty evenly the Democratic candidate's going to win. That's where the contest stands right now so Emmer will have to make up some ground in the final days if he's going to pull this one out."
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
In contrast to other polls, a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 24-27 finds a tight race between Dayton and Emmer, with Dayton leading Emmer by only 39 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent for independent Tom Horner and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Dayton, a former one-term senator, leads Emmer, a member of the state House, by 41 percent to 29 percent with 11 percent for independent Tom Horner and 20 percent undecided, according to a Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll conducted Oct. 21-25. In its September poll, Dayton had led Emmer by 38 percent to 27 percent, with Horner getting 16 percent.
MPR/Humphrey says one reason for Dayton's success compared to other states where there is a rising GOP tide is that when it comes to the engagement of voters, "the story is quite different in Minnesota." Democrats are matching Republicans as far as enthusiasm in this election. This is a chance for Democrats to make a gubernatorial pickup since the job is currently help by the GOP's Tim Pawlenty. Democrats have been shut out of the job since Rudy Perpich finished his two terms in 1991.
POLLS FROM SUNDAY:
Dayton leads Emmer by 41 percent to 34 percent followed by Horner, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points. (Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, Oct. 18-21).
Missouri
POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:
Republican Roy Blunt is leading Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Senate race by 49 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, KMOV, Oct. 18-20).
Blunt leads Carnahan by 52 percent to 43 percent, with 2 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. Last week, Blunt led by about the same margin. The margin of error is 4 points. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19).
Blunt leads Carnahan 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. Seven percent of those supporting each candidate say they could change their minds. The margin of error is 3 points. (Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 16).
New York
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino in the race for governor by 58 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to Siena Research Institute poll conducted Oct. 27-30.
Nevada
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Brian Sandoval leads Democrat Rory Reid in the governor's race by 54 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate, 2 percent liking none of the candidates and 4 percent undecided, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Sandoval is getting 90 percent support from fellow Republicans while Reid attracts support from only 74 percent of Democrats. Sandoval leads among independents by 61 percent to 29 percent with the remainder for other candidates or undecided.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican Sharron Angle leads Democrat Harry Reid in the Senate race by 49 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll. The margin of error is 5 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Sandoval leads Rory Reid, son of Harry, by 58 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent for some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25. Sandoval has held double-digit leads over Reid in 16 matchups done by Rasmussen dating back to February.
Angle leads Reid by 49 percent to 45 percent in the Senate race with 2 percent for Scott Ashjian, who is running as a Tea Party candidate and 3 percent who don't like any of the choices. With Ashjian out of the race, Angle would be leading by 51 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, Oct. 20-26).
New Hampshire
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by 56 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided in the race to fill the Senate seat of the GOP's Judd Gregg, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.7 points.
In the race for governor, Democrat John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen by 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided.
"Hodes never emerged as a strong candidate," PPP said. Fifty percent of voters see him unfavorably to only 34 percent who rate him in a positive light. Independents don't like him and the number of Democrats who dislike him is greater than the number of Republicans who do like him...Democrats are lucky John Lynch is so popular or else the GOP would be headed for a sweep in New Hampshire this year."
Democratic incumbent John Lynch leads Republican John Stephen in the governor's race by 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27.
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 26 showed Ayotte leading Hodes by 56 percent to 41 percent. Three percent support some other candidate or are undecided.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Ayotte leads Hodes in the race to fill the seat left open by the GOP's Judd Gregg by 56 percent to 41 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.7 points.
PPP's poll also shows Lynch running ahead of Stephen in the race for governor by 53 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
PPP's Dean Debnam said, "When Judd Gregg announced his retirement I don't think anyone could have imagined Republicans would retain his seat by such a large margin. Democrats are lucky John Lynch is so popular or else the GOP would be headed for a sweep in New Hampshire this year."
New Mexico
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican Susan Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish by 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4 points. The gap between Martinez and Denish was about the same in two previous Rasmussen polls, putting the Republicans in a position to retake a governorship that is now held by Democrat Bill Richardson. Martinez is a district attorney and the first Hispanic woman to win a major party nomination for governor. Denish is lieutenant government, and Richardson's current unpopularity in the state -- 57 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as governor -- has been a drag on her.
New York
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
There's never been much doubt that, barring surprises, the Democrats in blue New York were going to withstand the Republican tide, and a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 18-24 underlines the point, showing Democrat Andrew Cuomo ahead of Republican Carl Paladino by 55 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided in the governor's race, and first-term Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi by 57 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided in her bid for re-election.
North Carolina
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Democrat Elaine Marshall just hasn't been able to gain any traction in her challenge to first term Republican Sen. Richard Burr, even though several polls have shown him with lackluster job approval and favorability numbers with voters. The latest poll, conducted Oct. 22-25 by SurveyUSA, demonstrates that again, showing Burr ahead of her by 43 percent to 38 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian Michael Beitler and 3 percent undecided.
Ohio
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
The race for the governorship in Ohio has tightened considerably with Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland pulling to within one point of Republican John Kasich, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. The margin of error is 2.7 points.
Kasich now leads Strickland by 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
"What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home, PPP said. "He's now winning 87 percent of the Democratic vote, up from only 78 percent in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer."
Strickland made his gains despite the fact that voters disapprove of the job he is doing by 50 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent not sure of their opinion. Kasich isn't winning any popularity contests either: 43 percent see him favorably while 42 percent see him unfavorably, with 15 percent undecided.
PPP says, "If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents" among whom he has an 18 point lead over Strickland.
In the Senate race, PPP says Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 57 percent to 39 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Oct. 20-22 has Kasich ahead of Strickland 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. The same poll has Portman leading Fisher by 46 percent to 40 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher in the Senate race by 57 percent to 33 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 7 percent undecided. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26)
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Republican John Kasich leads Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland in the governor's race by 48 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In the previous poll, Kasich led by 48 percent to 45 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct.26).
A SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, has Kasich ahead by 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent for other candidates and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Kasich is leading among independents (22 percent of the sample) by 17 points.
In the Senate race, SurveyUSA says Portman leads Fisher by 52 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent for other candidates and 4 percent undecided.
Oregon
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democrat John Kitzhaber has pulled ahead of Republican Chris Dudley in the governor's race, leading him 48 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error is 4.2 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Two new polls show the governor's race between Republican newcomer Chris Dudley and Democrat John Kitzhaber to be a dead heat.
A poll by Davis, Hibbits & Migdall reported by the Portland Tribune conducted Oct. 24-25 has Dudley ahead of Kitzhaber by 46 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 points. The Tribune said, "In effect, Oregon voters haven't budged much since the May primary, despite more than $12 million in campaign spending by both sides."
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25 has Dudley leading Kitzhaber by 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 10 poll, Kitzhaber had led by 48 percent to 46 percent. Voters are divided at 42 percent each about whether they favor a candidate with political experience (Kitzhaber is a former two-term governor) or a candidate who has never held office, (Dudley is a former pro basketball player who went into financial consulting). Both candidates are seen favorably by voters. Dudley is doing better than Kitzhaber as far as the level of support from their respective parties, and has a modest lead among unaffiliated voters.
Pennsylvania
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
While other polls have shown Democrat Joe Sestak closing the gap, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31 has Republican Pat Toomey leading him by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. In the governor's race, Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onoraqto by 52 percent to 45 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
"Joe Sestak and Dan Onorato each made impressive comebacks but it looks like they'll end up falling short," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "That Barack Obama is such a liability in the state only two years after taking it by double digits says a lot about how much the political climate has shifted and his ability to gain back support in places like Pennsylvania will be key for his 2012 prospects."
The Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call daily tracking poll has Toomey leading Sestak by 45 percent to 43 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. That's the same margin Toomey held on the previous day when this survey began showing the tightening of this race. Toomey had led on five previous days by 5 points or more.
In the governor's race, the poll showed Corbett leading Onorato by 48 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. Corbett had been at the 50 percent mark or above on five previous days.
A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted Oct. 28, has Corbett leading Onorato by 52 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided.
A McClatchy/Marist Institute poll, conducted Oct. 26-28, shows a different result: Toomey leading 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 points.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 has Toomey leading Sestak by 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
Rhode Island
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican-turned-independent John Chafee is in the lead in the governor's race with 33 percent, followed by Democrat Frank Caprio at 26 percent, Republican John Robitaille at 26 percent (rounded up from 25.5 percent) and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block at 4 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to a WPRI-TV poll conducted Oct. 2-15. The margin of error is 4.4 points.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Chafee is out in front in the four-way race for governor with 35 percent, followed by Robitaille at 28 percent, Caprio at 25 percent, Block at 2 percent and 10 percent undecided. Caprio had led Chafee in the last poll released Oct. 12, with Robitaille in third place. (NBC 10/Quest Research, Oct. 23-26).
POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:
Chafee leads Caprio 35 percent to 28 percent in the race for governor with 25 percent for Robitaille. Six percent back Block and 6 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. In an Oct. 4 poll, Chafee had led Caprio by only 33 percent to 30 percent, with 22 percent for Robitaille. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21).
South Carolina
POLLS FROM LAST WEEK:
Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen by 51 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 9 percent undecided. (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 19)
Haley is leading Sheheen by 47 percent to 38 percent in the race to succeed GOP Gov. Mark Sanford, with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. In a Sept. 22 poll, Haley had held a 50 percent to 33 percent margin. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19). See related story.
Texas
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Republican incumbent Rick Perry leads Democrat Bill White by 53 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4.1 points. PPP notes that while White, the former mayor of Houston, has a more positive image than Perry, "it may be a classic case of the right candidate running in the wrong cycle ... To win as a Democrat in Texas you're going to have to win a fair amount of crossover support from Republican voters and in the end White just wasn't able to do it."
Vermont
Democrat Peter Shumlin, a state senator, leads Republican Brian Dubie, the lieutenant governor, in the governor's race by 50 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28. The margin of error is 4.5 points. The winning candidate must get 50 percent of the vote or the election goes to the Legislature to be decided. The governorship is currently held by Republican Jim Douglas, who is stepping down after four terms.
Washington
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Democratic incumbent Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi are in a dead heat in the Senate race with Murray ahead by 49 percent to 48 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate or undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4 points. Sixty-two percent of Republicans describe themselves as enthusiastic about voting compared to 52 percent of Democrats.
POLLS FROM FRIDAY:
Murray and Rossi are tied at 47 percent each with 6 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 24-27. The margin of error is 3.8 points.
A KCTS9/WPLU poll released Friday has Murray leading Rossi by 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4 points.
POLLS FROM THURSDAY:
Rossi and Murray remain locked in a tight race, with Rossi ahead by 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.
West Virginia
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Gov. Joe Manchin, one of the most popular Democrats of any of his counterparts in other states, leads Republican John Raese by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31. The margin of error is 2.4 points.
While PPP says that Manchin has been weighed down by voter disapproval of President Obama and national Democrats, his showing owes to several factors: Raese has not been a particularly appealing opponent, the "enthusiasm gap" between the parties is not as evident here, and Manchin "has made enough conservatives comfortable voting for him."
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Manchin leads Raese by 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent favoring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Raese led by 50 percent to 43 percent. (Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 26).
Wisconsin
POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:
Republican Ron Johnson is leading Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race by 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent favoring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4.5 points.
POLLS FROM WEDNESDAY:
Republican Scott Walker, the Milwaukee county executive, is leading Democrat Tom Barrett, the Milwaukee mayor, by 52 percent to 42 percent in the race for governor, with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. This is the third poll since Sept. 29 where Walker has been at the crucial 50 percent mark or above. Walker benefits by getting 96 percent support from fellow Republicans while Barrett has 83 percent support from Democrats. Walker has a big advantage amo
Tagged: 2010 Election Polls, 2010 Governor Elections, 2010 Governors Elections, 2010 Governors Races, 2010 Senate Elections, 2010 Senate Races, Alex Sink, Arkansas Elections, Arkansas Senate Race, Blanche Lincoln, Brian Dubie, Brian Sandoval, Connecticut Elections, Connecticut Governors Race, Connecticut Senate Race, dailyguidance, Dan Malloy, Dan Onorato, Dino Rossi, Florida Elections, Florida Governors Race, Jack Conway, Joe Manchin, Joe Sestak, John Boozman, John Kasich, John Lynch, John Raese, John Stephen, Kelly Ayotte, Kentucky Elections, Kentucky Senate Race, Lee Fisher, Linda McMahon, Mark Dayton, Minnesota Elections, Minnesota Governors Race, Nevada Elections, Nevada Governors Race, New Hampshire Elections, New Hampshire Governors Race, New Hampshire Senate Race, Ohio Elections, Ohio Governors Race, Ohio Senate Race, Pat Toomey, Patty Murray, Paul Hodes, Pennsylvania Elections, Pennsylvania Governors Race, Pennsylvania Senate Race, Peter Shumlin, Rand Paul, Rob Portman, Rory Reid, Ted Strickland, Tom Corbett, Tom Emmer, Tom Foley, Vermont Elections, Vermont Governors Race, Washington Elections, Washington Senate Race, West Virginia Elections, West Virginia Senate Race, West Virginia Senate Races
Our New Approach to Comments
In an effort to encourage the same level of civil dialogue among Politics Daily’s readers that we expect of our writers – a “civilogue,” to use the term coined by PD’s Jeffrey Weiss – we are requiring commenters to use their AOL or AIM screen names to submit a comment, and we are reading all comments before publishing them. Personal attacks (on writers, other readers, Nancy Pelosi, George W. Bush, or anyone at all) and comments that are not productive additions to the conversation will not be published, period, to make room for a discussion among those with ideas to kick around. Please read our Help and Feedback section for more info.
Add a Comment
Most of the Dem candidates, and for sure those in key states, have the advantage of the media campaigning for them. Some of the campaigns are really bizarre with Dem incumbents painting their Repub opponents as the incumbents an accusing them of pork and corruption,exporting jobs to Chia, regardless of the fact taht the opponent has not been in office. Most Dems are running that they will oppose the Dem Party goals but the DNC has poured millinos into states to elect candidates who are simply lying. The DNC is financing a campaign that says they have failed and yet they are paying to elect the phonies who are campaigning that way. In WV where Joe Manchin, a long time Dem politician is running that he will oppose everything that Obama wants and will not follow the party goal of eliminating coal mining and yet he has received millions from the party to get into office. This is Sen Byrd, the KKK Klugle's seat. You would think a news person might mention at least who is the incumbent or who is the party toad. I am a Dem and like it usually, but the Dem campaigns in my region ( tri-state) are the trashiest, most false campaigns I have ever seen in my life.
November 01 2010 at 8:43 AM Report abuse Permalink +4 rate up rate down ReplyJoJo and others such is correct. We are a huge family of mainly spanish and black american with White members included. We had a dream. We voted for the Democrates last election however we are unsully split or independents. Than my son after his graduation from the University was sent to Afghanastan. He was killed three months ago in a useless war in which all Americans must return home as the President lied to us once said. I will not ask my family to vote for anyone but their Choice. I myself feel a need for this nation to stop the bleading when one Party has full control of the House and Presidency. I will vote Republican because nothing has changed and all people have lost in the last two years things that can not be blamed on the past. This DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT and his DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS have not kept their promice to any of us. The press has been too timid in criticizing him too. Any Person that has the PRIVLIAGE OF SERRVING this nation of many people of different races and faiths that can not take responsibility of his mistakes and his actions is a failure. I will vote Republican to isure he is kept under control until in two years he can be voted out.
October 31 2010 at 9:23 PM Report abuse Permalink +10 rate up rate down ReplyYou overlook the fact that our country is in the terrible mess left by George Bush and the Republicans. Eight years of damage and you expect the President to undo all this mess in less than two years while working with an outlandish group of Bush era Republicans who have vowed to return to the policies of the Bush years that got us in this terrible mess. I express my sincere sympathy for the loss of your son. He is a true hero and will always be however you must remember who it was that commited us to this "useless war." The best thing we can do right now to to give the President a veto proof Congress and Senate so that he can get the country and economy turned around in the next two years and like you say, if there is no real progess then we need to vote him out. However having a Democratic President and a treasonous Congress who will block every attempt at turning the econony around simply to insure the President does not suceed in order to set us up for another Bush type presidency in 2012 is a tragic mistake. Signed, a Viet Nam Era Veteran.
November 01 2010 at 2:22 AM Report abuse Permalink -13 rate up rate down ReplyDon- January 3rd 2007. The day the Democrats took over the House of Representatives & Senate, the start of the 110th Congress. The Democratic Party controlled a majority in both chambers for the first time since the end of the 103rd Congress in 1995...Quit blaming Bush for everything! and God bless you and your family John!!
November 01 2010 at 10:17 AM Report abuse Permalink +10 rate up rate down Replywill vote for the person I think suits my State(NJ) better even though I am a registered Dem, will vote 4 the person I think will be the better candidate "-) P.S. Don't really believe in these polls*
October 31 2010 at 7:55 PM Report abuse Permalink +6 rate up rate down Replydon't really believe in these polls, this time I am voting for the better candidate although I am a Dem and have always votes straight Dem, this time I will vote for the person I think will do NJ good not just because he or she is in my party....hope all works out and there will not be the same old, same old stuff.
October 31 2010 at 7:53 PM Report abuse Permalink +6 rate up rate down ReplyThe Poll does not list Murkowski by name but only as write in?How does this work out? There are at least fifty Alaskans that are now appproved to run as a write -in.They need to change their Poll results if they are listing Miller Adams and write in. There will be people who will vote for the various write-ins to protest the situation. Sort of like the Nevada ballot where you can check none of the above. Wouldnt be surprised to see the Democrat win now.
October 31 2010 at 7:11 PM Report abuse Permalink +3 rate up rate down ReplyAlaska has made their Election look sad. Murkowski lost the primary and decided to run as a write-in.As of yesterday there are at least sixty people who have qualified as a write-in to counter her becasue of her antics. The Republicans trying to hedge thie bets and wanting the MModerate Murkowski to win did not deprive her of her Senate Committee which allowed her to use it to sell her write-in campaign. There is now a good chance that the Democrat in Alaska will now win the Senate seat which is Ironio.Today it was discovered that a major News outlet in Alaska did not hang up the phone after a conversation and reporters were heard discussing how to make the Miller campaign look bad by saying that they could find at least one child molester in the audience and tie him to it or create an incident similar to the recent Rand Paul incident. The Stationmanager admits the audio tape exists but claims it was just reporters talking about how people could disrupt the Miller campaign. This is nonsense becasue the reporters also discused getting thre names of the people on the Miller campaign list. Why would they need these names if they were talking about people infiltrating the campaign and why Child Molesters.?Yos would think that the voters would get tred of these Smeatr camapaigns but they either dont care or they cant analyze the facts.
October 31 2010 at 6:55 PM Report abuse Permalink +4 rate up rate down ReplyWHY would anyone allow an unelected few to censor "some other candidate"(s)and keep voters in the dark? DEMOCRACY AMERICAN STYLE LAID BARE FOR ALL TO SEE at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-BzYnJamPM&feature=recentlik "Blessed are the Censors, for they shall inhibit the Earth!" - Alfred E. Neuman
October 31 2010 at 5:40 PM Report abuse Permalink +1 rate up rate down ReplyI am a Republican and that is probably a good thing this election. I live in Texas, in fact in Houston and even thought I would normally vote Republican, Bill White will get my vote this time. He was a great Mayor here in Houston, the lies Rick Perry is telling about him are not true. The way Perry used the officer's wife who was left widowed because of being shot convinced me that Perry is a jerk. He is so stuck on himself that he can't run Texas any longer. I voted for him originally but each election following, I have voted against him even though the candidate would not have been my first choice. The polls say Perry is leading, please get out an vote to help Bill White. If everyone goes out to vote, it will make a difference. Bill White is a down to earth person with high values and good experience. Not only that, he acts human to each and every person he comes in contact with. Texan's...vote Bill White.
October 31 2010 at 5:38 PM Report abuse Permalink -4 rate up rate down ReplyWhat I find interesting and also confusing to a point in some of these races. Is the point spread differences between the different races but same party. Example if the Governor of your state had a 15 point lead but your senator from the same party only had a 5 point lead and with most people voting a straight party line wouldn't the governors rating and vote carry the senator and congressman and whoever else was on that ticket?
October 31 2010 at 12:31 PM Report abuse Permalink +11 rate up rate down ReplyKenneth...Your observation of a straight party ticket assisting less popular candidates of the same party is correct. It's simply called coattail effect. However, this also works in reverse when an unpopular candidate drags his own party down. As information, only fifteen states have the single option to vote SPT at the voting booth. I personally don't vote a SPT. That's how incompetent people from either party get into office. You got a thumbs up from me for paying attention :)
October 31 2010 at 2:33 PM Report abuse Permalink +12 rate up rate down Reply
Discover inspiring videos on TEDWomen where people are reshaping our future with ideas.
View the Video »
Tracking Political Polls
Tracking Political Polls
Hot Issues
Economy - Taxes - Tea Party
Health Care - Iraq - Afghanistan - Obama's Presidency - Immigration - Islam - Gay Rights - Marijuana
Health Care - Iraq - Afghanistan - Obama's Presidency - Immigration - Islam - Gay Rights - Marijuana
Follow Politics Daily
Politics Home Page : Roll Call
News From Our Partners
- Alex Gibney: Julian Assange has become like “those he despises”
- New Yorker launches tool by Aaron Swartz to protect leaks
- Financial Times hacked by Syrian Electronic Army
- Gitmo hunger strike reaches 100th day
- New DSM, new debates over ADHD and autism
- More Stories »
- IRS' Planted Question Adds to Its Misery
- Reid May Go 'Nuclear' to Reform Filibuster
- Bobby Jindal: Send IRS Officials to Prison
- How Your Muscles Impact Your Politics
- IRS Chief Blames 'Foolish Mistakes', Not Politics
- More Stories »
- 10 things you need to know today: May 18, 2013
- Should the U.K. leave the European Union?
- 5 highlights from the House's first hearing into the IRS scandal
- Will Russia's advanced missiles prevent U.S. intervention in Syria?
- Why the GOP dropped its boycott of Obama's Labor and EPA picks
- More Stories »
- Judith Levy, Ed. : IRS: Tell Us What You're Praying For
- Duane Oyen : Report from the States: Minnesota Edition
- Jon Gabriel : Introducing the Obama Scandal Bracket!
- Jack Dunphy : On the Kevin Williamson Matter, or The Case of the Flying Cell Phone
- Pejman Yousefzadeh : The Public Train Wreck that Is the IRS Scandal
- More Stories »
Top News
More News
More on Aol
Local News
More Blog/Sites
Sites and Services
HuffPost Politics
© 2011 AOL Inc. All Rights Reserved.
12 Comments